Posted on 09/21/2011 11:33:07 AM PDT by parksstp
Watching Palin, you know that when she does something, she only does it at 110% or more. And like most politicians, she doesn’t like to lose (see her 2008 night of the election – yeah, she was angry McCain wouldn’t let her speak, but I’m also sure deep down she was bitter over the fact that the American voters bought the whole “hope and changey” platitudes.) And obviously, she wants to fix that bitter taste from 2008. How she accomplishes that (runs, doesn’t run, etc) has been a matter of debate.
The biggest hinderance you hear about Palin running for POTUS is her “electability”. Polls would have you believe her unfavorable ratings will never allow her to win the GOP nomination, or if she does win it, lose the 2012 General Election.
Well, yes, polls can help determine the outlook of a situation. Take a look at the current sitting President. All signs point to him losing his base, in addition to independents, as the country spirals downward.
But we have seen one thing proven time and time again. That regardless of polls, the ideological support of each party, usually in some fashion or another, returns to their ideological candidate. Usually it is enough. Sometimes it is not (McCain).
The “electability” argument against Palin usually goes that she cannot win the election because she cannot win moderates or independents. Okay, fine, valid point. Now my contention is going to be this: Does she really have to win them to win the 2012 Election?
Some folks would scoff off at me: “Of course she does! Nobody is going to win the election if they can’t win the middle.” Oh really?
The “Moderate/Independent” label is broad and misleading. Looking at some of the CNN Map data from the 2004, 2008, and 2010 Elections, I’ve come across something interesting. These “Moderate/Independents” tend to vote for the Republican candidate in counties carried by the Republican. Shockingly, the “Moderate/Independents” also tend to vote for the Democrat in counties carried by the Democrat. Not so moderate/independent as we thought. And when you hear the media talking about how she can’t win the “Independents” they’re referring to the ones in the blue counties. Even though no Republican ever carries anywhere near a majority of independents in the blue counties, they expect Palin to accomplish this task to have legitimacy, while in all honesty, she can run just as mediocre in those areas as Bush did, provided she runs strong margins in the traditional conservative areas. Picking up 20% of “Independents” in Broward County, FL would be all she would need provided she ran as strong elsewhere in the state where she is supposed to.
Okay, sorry for the digression, back to the question of the thread. Like I said, Sarah likes to win and hates losing. Well folks, there’s one event going on right now, that if you’re a Palin supporter you better be on the phone lines making it happen.
The current bill in PA to reapportion the Electoral College votes blows the electability argument out of the water. IF it passes, based on redistricting, it’s possible that the GOP candidate could come out of PA with as many as 10 Electoral Votes. That’s the equivalent of IA and NH, without actually having to win IA and NH. It turns the Electoral Math almost decisively towards the GOP candidate.
Except for MO (given it’s closeness), there is no Red State from 2008 that is in any serious jeopardy to turn blue in 2012. MO has shown that there is usually enough conservative votes to offset StL/KC. IN and NC both appear to be heading Red this time around. VA can return to the Red column by reclaiming Loudon, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and other Bush-majorities that McCain lost. FL and OH seem to go as the economy goes. Obama did not blow McCain out in either of these states, instead McCain severly underperformed in traditionally red/conservative areas. That’s 266 Electoral votes. When you add in the potential of 10 Electoral Votes from PA, it’s game over for Obama.
In fact, it opens up viable winning scenarios for the Republican without having to win both OH and FL. For example, let’s say for whatever reason, Obama succeeds in getting “old people” scared to vote for Palin and wins FL. If she still carried OH and reclaimed the Bush States of IA, NM, CO, and NV or NH, and won at least 7 CD’s in PA, she would have 270 to win. Likewise, if she lost OH due to voter fraud, but managed to carry FL, CO, and one other state (IA, NM, NV, NH), 6-7 CD’s in PA would also get her to 270.
With the passage of this bill, the Electoral Math is realistically in her favor. Not that it wasn’t before, but this bill may be the decisive factor in her decision to run for two reasons. First, the GOP primary voters can feel assured that based on the Electoral Math probabilities, they can select the candidate they really want to without having to worry about the “electability” factor. This is the #1 argument she will need to make to capture voters from the Perry and the other conservative campaigns. Second, from an economic standpoint, her campaign can throw the kitchen sink at OH/FL immediately putting Obama on defense, then pick and choose what other blue states they will gamble for (but don’t have to win) given their status of funds.
IF this PA bill passes, look for a Palin announcement shortly thereafter. If none occurs, then she won’t be running.
Rags can come up with all sorts of tales.
I call BS.
Grizzly Bear season in the North Western Arctic commences April 15th.
I guess we will have to wait and see if there is anything to it.
You can win a seat in Congress via Protest, however to win the Presidency, people must vote “for you” not “against someone else”. Obama will win NY-9 in 2012, those people will come back. Just like MA has no chance of going red in the General Election.
It's in Iowa's LAW that Iowa is before EVERYONE, no matter what. If another state moves theres, Iowa moves theirs before it automaticly. (I think 10 days before, but not sure on that)
They are trying to introduce it now. The PA GOP Leadership is against it. I assume they’ll be a weasely deal to try to pass it, but not take effect until 2016. From what I’ve heard though, it does have the votes to pass and the Gov said he would sign it.
If anything I think her husband might not be too happy with her in the WH. I imagine he would rather live a quiet life in Alaska and not in the hellhole WH.
Hoeven was extremely popular as Governor of North Dakota, but more than pulling in just his State’s votes, he makes the appeal of someone from the Upper Midwest/Great Plains. A lot of people in Minnesota and Wisconsin would find a great deal of commonality from someone in the region.
Dirt free (as far as I can tell), well liked, won’t overshadow the nominee, and is from where I think the battleground will be.
Just my prediction.
Then what?
I disagree. We are working on a model more like the defections seen in 1980 from the Rat party and to a much lesser effect 2008 from the GOP. Obummers approvals in NY 9 are in the mid 30's. Obummer has shifted the party so far to the left, it has left a fair amount of the natural Rat base to the right of the party. They are starting to see this and are reevaluating what their politics actually are. I see no evidence yet that these disaffected voter base is going to come home any time soon.
Shame the other 49 States don’t give a shit what Iowa thinks.
They both would much prefer a quiet life in Alaska, but realize a duty larger than selfishness. Todd has stated he wants her to run and is 100% behind her.
What is the date of this PA bill? Palin said end of Sept. to not string any one along.
I really did want answers to my questions in 27.........
That’s good to know.
I think she said she didnt want to string anyone along. She never said she wasn't going to string us along. Didn't she recently say she is enjoying stringing us along ??
Can you prove she wants to string us along vs just enjoying it? AHAH got you LOL (imitation of a sleeper who says November is close enough to September)
‘Palin 47% Obama 47%: Turnaround & Why Marist Poll Is No Fluke’
Thanks for the interesting read! I hope PA does as you say, however I do not believe it will have any impact on Gov Palin`s decision either way. JMHO :)
I don’t know when Sarah will announce her intentions, but I REALLY HATE the phrase “110 percent.” THERE IS NO SUCH NUMBER.
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