I disagree. We are working on a model more like the defections seen in 1980 from the Rat party and to a much lesser effect 2008 from the GOP. Obummers approvals in NY 9 are in the mid 30's. Obummer has shifted the party so far to the left, it has left a fair amount of the natural Rat base to the right of the party. They are starting to see this and are reevaluating what their politics actually are. I see no evidence yet that these disaffected voter base is going to come home any time soon.
From what I’ve read, NY-9 won’t exist as presently drawn by the ‘12 election. It will be drawn out of existence.