Posted on 09/21/2011 11:33:07 AM PDT by parksstp
Watching Palin, you know that when she does something, she only does it at 110% or more. And like most politicians, she doesn’t like to lose (see her 2008 night of the election – yeah, she was angry McCain wouldn’t let her speak, but I’m also sure deep down she was bitter over the fact that the American voters bought the whole “hope and changey” platitudes.) And obviously, she wants to fix that bitter taste from 2008. How she accomplishes that (runs, doesn’t run, etc) has been a matter of debate.
The biggest hinderance you hear about Palin running for POTUS is her “electability”. Polls would have you believe her unfavorable ratings will never allow her to win the GOP nomination, or if she does win it, lose the 2012 General Election.
Well, yes, polls can help determine the outlook of a situation. Take a look at the current sitting President. All signs point to him losing his base, in addition to independents, as the country spirals downward.
But we have seen one thing proven time and time again. That regardless of polls, the ideological support of each party, usually in some fashion or another, returns to their ideological candidate. Usually it is enough. Sometimes it is not (McCain).
The “electability” argument against Palin usually goes that she cannot win the election because she cannot win moderates or independents. Okay, fine, valid point. Now my contention is going to be this: Does she really have to win them to win the 2012 Election?
Some folks would scoff off at me: “Of course she does! Nobody is going to win the election if they can’t win the middle.” Oh really?
The “Moderate/Independent” label is broad and misleading. Looking at some of the CNN Map data from the 2004, 2008, and 2010 Elections, I’ve come across something interesting. These “Moderate/Independents” tend to vote for the Republican candidate in counties carried by the Republican. Shockingly, the “Moderate/Independents” also tend to vote for the Democrat in counties carried by the Democrat. Not so moderate/independent as we thought. And when you hear the media talking about how she can’t win the “Independents” they’re referring to the ones in the blue counties. Even though no Republican ever carries anywhere near a majority of independents in the blue counties, they expect Palin to accomplish this task to have legitimacy, while in all honesty, she can run just as mediocre in those areas as Bush did, provided she runs strong margins in the traditional conservative areas. Picking up 20% of “Independents” in Broward County, FL would be all she would need provided she ran as strong elsewhere in the state where she is supposed to.
Okay, sorry for the digression, back to the question of the thread. Like I said, Sarah likes to win and hates losing. Well folks, there’s one event going on right now, that if you’re a Palin supporter you better be on the phone lines making it happen.
The current bill in PA to reapportion the Electoral College votes blows the electability argument out of the water. IF it passes, based on redistricting, it’s possible that the GOP candidate could come out of PA with as many as 10 Electoral Votes. That’s the equivalent of IA and NH, without actually having to win IA and NH. It turns the Electoral Math almost decisively towards the GOP candidate.
Except for MO (given it’s closeness), there is no Red State from 2008 that is in any serious jeopardy to turn blue in 2012. MO has shown that there is usually enough conservative votes to offset StL/KC. IN and NC both appear to be heading Red this time around. VA can return to the Red column by reclaiming Loudon, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and other Bush-majorities that McCain lost. FL and OH seem to go as the economy goes. Obama did not blow McCain out in either of these states, instead McCain severly underperformed in traditionally red/conservative areas. That’s 266 Electoral votes. When you add in the potential of 10 Electoral Votes from PA, it’s game over for Obama.
In fact, it opens up viable winning scenarios for the Republican without having to win both OH and FL. For example, let’s say for whatever reason, Obama succeeds in getting “old people” scared to vote for Palin and wins FL. If she still carried OH and reclaimed the Bush States of IA, NM, CO, and NV or NH, and won at least 7 CD’s in PA, she would have 270 to win. Likewise, if she lost OH due to voter fraud, but managed to carry FL, CO, and one other state (IA, NM, NV, NH), 6-7 CD’s in PA would also get her to 270.
With the passage of this bill, the Electoral Math is realistically in her favor. Not that it wasn’t before, but this bill may be the decisive factor in her decision to run for two reasons. First, the GOP primary voters can feel assured that based on the Electoral Math probabilities, they can select the candidate they really want to without having to worry about the “electability” factor. This is the #1 argument she will need to make to capture voters from the Perry and the other conservative campaigns. Second, from an economic standpoint, her campaign can throw the kitchen sink at OH/FL immediately putting Obama on defense, then pick and choose what other blue states they will gamble for (but don’t have to win) given their status of funds.
IF this PA bill passes, look for a Palin announcement shortly thereafter. If none occurs, then she won’t be running.
Great. Another prediction for when Sarah will announce. Enough already with Nostradamus predictions.
Ahh... the old wishful thinking of other states. A couple may try to pass a law pushing up their date. Iowa already has a law mandated we caucus first. Iowa can change our date at a moment’s notice... well, pretty darn fast, anyway.
The headline said “when” the discussion did not.
So here’s my take: before the end of the year, probably in November. She wants to emulate Reagan in timing as well.
Interesting analogy, thanks. Augments my belief that she can win it.
I never bought the garbage put out by the democrats that she can’t win it, though. She was a totally unknown in 2008 when McCain picked her. Nobody was even aware of her successful record in Alaska as they are now. McCain couldn’t get much beyond a yawn in the polls, but within 3 weeks, they were out polling Obama/Biden by 3%, when Obama was even in his calm the rising waters hayday. And their money had doubled.
Then, of course McCain screwed the pooch with his bullish support of ramming TARP through and weakness in not demanding more oversight in the bill...instead of giving the appearance of thoughful yet wary consideration. He lost the independents within 47 days of the election.
I sincerely don’t think Palin is concerned about the polls. I believe she knows that once she starts campaigning, she will appeal to the Right, Middle, Independents, and Crossover voters. This is her history. I think the Independents/Middle are there because they don’t want to identify with either party and they are social moderates. Palin always governed as a social moderate - she thinks those are issues for the individual rather than the government. I think once she starts her visible campaign on Energy Independence, Constitutional Government, and Fiscal Responsibility she will have it in the bag regardless of who else is running.
1) Gov Palin will announce when the time-frame is right (campaign spending is key).
2) The candidate to get my vote will look the “moderates” and “independents” straight in the eye and say “American Patriotism requires ^YOU^ to either $4!t or get off the pot!”
3) if Gov Palin doesn’t do the equivalent of this, we are a lost republic.
IMAO (A=arrogant)
When is too late?
Lastly, when is this election and are you sure it applies to 2012? I thought a lot of these Electoral College negating bills were tied to other states slitting their throats in like manner before they went into effect....
McCaskill is toast, imo. I heard a clip of her on a morning radio show today blaming the lack of economic recovery on the House Republicans. She will not win with that strategy.
What about today’s report in the Daily Mail that Todd is going to ask her for a divorce?
I think you’re off by two weeks - April 1st.
They go to crazy-land at any suggestion that their guy isn't preordained.
He's due for a meltdown any day, they're just in denial.
Hoeven? Why? So the GOP can lock down all three of North Dakota's electoral votes?
Otherwise, great analysis, except that if Pennsylvania adopts the pending bill to allocate electoral votes on the same basis as Maine and Nebraska, most of our Commonwealth will behave like a midwestern state as well.
For certain, the field isn’t set until Palin makes her announcement.
October 1st...here comes Sarah!!!!!!!!!!!!
Old rag story.
Sarah Palin could be set to lose both her marriage and her political career after the release of the explosive biography on the Tea Party darling.
The National Enquirer claims that friends close to the politician and her husband Todd say he is ‘fed up’ with the constant scandals that have plagued their marriage ever since she ran for vice president and is ready to file for a divorce.
As well as kissing goodbye to her marriage, it has also been alleged that her advisers have told her to kiss goodbye to the White House fearing a bid would be ‘political suicide’.
In The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin, the 47-year-old is accused of having a night of passion with a basketball star, snorting cocaine and having an affair with her husband’s business partner - all allegations which are thought to have shattered Palin’s White House dream.
I believe Palin has decided to run all along but is not going to announce until she is ready to announce.
Agreed she is running it is just a matter of when she announces then the fun begins. Obama has no chance to get reelected and Sarah is the most conservative one in the bunch. Sarah will do what she says she will do and that scares the Dems and the Repubs equally. Oh it will be so fun watching and participating in getting Sarah over the line.
October 31st Trick or Treat!!!!!
April 1st April Fool...
IF this PA bill passes, look for a Palin announcement shortly thereafter. If none occurs, then she won’t be running.
Lots of words but nothing stating when this bill maybe up for a vote, gov. signature and effectived date. Do you have that info. Will all this occur before the upcoming drop dead dates starting on Oct. 31 in Florida?
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