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The Economy Is Deteriorating at an Extremely Fast Rate
http://libertarian-neocon.blogspot.com/2011/06/economy-is-deteriorating-at-extremely.html ^ | libertarian neocon

Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon

In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.

Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:

The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:

Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.

It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: debt; default; economy; obama; shtf; sourcetitlenoturl; teotwawki
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To: 3boysdad

Now that’s the spirit that settled the West! Don’t let ‘em grind you down . . . they’re relentless.


81 posted on 06/16/2011 9:43:07 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

We are letting Red China eat our lunch, yes we need protective tarriffs but we also need to have a good business climate here too with low taxes and regulation. Still on the other side of the coin, I’m all for profits and free markets, but our sovereign security and well being as a nation trumps all. I think a good movie about this was “All My Sons” (1948) starring Edward G. Robinson and Burt Lancaster where Robinson plays an industrialist who builds fighter plane engines in World War II but he skimps on the quality to make more money and this results in the death of some of our pilots because the engines burn up.


82 posted on 06/16/2011 9:46:14 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (General James Mattoon Scott, where are you when we need you? We need a regime change.)
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To: 1rudeboy

... and you fail yet again to outline even one instance wherein you would recommend cutting that selfsame out-of-control government spending.

Well, it’s been mildly amusing but your use of the language is beginning to fray as usual, and it’s bedtime.

Good night.


83 posted on 06/16/2011 9:47:37 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: Nowhere Man

I say we start with the protect America thing now (since we aren’t) and then work out the rest.

You in?


84 posted on 06/16/2011 9:47:44 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (BUY AMERICAN. The job you save will be your son's, or your daughter's)
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To: dragnet2

Oh, I know. But tweaking arrogant ESL’s into weird linguistic constructs is such nihilistic fun, I can’t help myself sometimes.


85 posted on 06/16/2011 9:49:33 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

Good night, also. Better luck next time, just keep trying.


86 posted on 06/16/2011 9:50:08 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: libertarian neocon

I need the economy to not collapse in the next 5 to 10 years and I’ll be ok. If it goes to a ‘30s style depression before then, I have a back up plan but it will be tough.

Never thought I’d be talking about the American economy like this. Hopefully we can get some adults in office during the next election to stablize and improve things.


87 posted on 06/16/2011 9:50:51 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: libertarian neocon
Until we do the following:

1. Aggressively audit every Federal, state and local government agency and use the audit results to start cutting down the size of government--bureaucratic overlap, agency size and regulations--by 30% initially and over 50% in around four years. For example, we need to merge Social Security, Medicare and other social services into a singular Department and potentially save over US$400 billion per year off the Federal budget.

2. Massively overhaul our income tax system to reduce compliance cost and to encourage American residents and businesses to keep their savings and capital investments in the USA. The flat income tax plan proposed by Steve Forbes in a book he wrote in 2005 should be at minimum what tax reform should be, in my humble opinion.

3. Aggressively oversee the financial markets by requiring real liquidity backing for hedge funds, derivatives, and other "new"-style investments (or ban them outright as financially too risky), increasing the minimum margin requirements (MMR) for futures trading to 20% (and require the buyer take 40% physical delivery of goods bought on the futures market), and re-imposing the Glass-Steagall Act to "firewall" bank assets from the ups and downs of the stock market. Too much of the wealth generated nowadays is through the financial markets at the expense of almost everything else in the US economy, in my humble opinion.

We're not going to get any type of economic recovery. I'm surprised that the Greeks have not considered the first two, because the corrupt government and a progressive income tax system is literally killing their economy.

88 posted on 06/16/2011 9:51:16 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Not by making excuses for globalist maroons, you won’t. You’ll just be eaten last.

Is it Friday? Is eveyone drunk? No it's Thrusday.

I just pointed out that almost eveything you buy is foregin owned. I don't like it either. That's why I live where I live. If I were POTUS after 9/11 I would have nuked Meca and saved a shitload of American lives and money.

89 posted on 06/16/2011 9:51:20 PM PDT by 3boysdad (The very elect.)
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To: RegulatorCountry
weird linguistic constructs

Now that's interesting! Is that just another way of admitting you got your ass kicked? "I couldn't understand what he said." LOLOL

90 posted on 06/16/2011 9:51:44 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 3boysdad
Want to make America first? Git rid of the Unions and the EPA (aka, green and warm fuzzy globull warming CO2 cap-n-trade Al Gore movement).

We need to do that too and yes, I also support tariffs on Red China too. It is a shame that we fight over this, I do think both sides do have some valid points. We just need to quit fighting and work up a plan and get the Obummer out of office in 2012. The enemy has been elected and is in the White House, we should not be enemies here.
91 posted on 06/16/2011 9:53:01 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (General James Mattoon Scott, where are you when we need you? We need a regime change.)
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To: 3boysdad

No, no one is drunk, sadly. You just have a bunch of folks who would rather sit on their asses and bitch that the Chinese are coming instead of looking in the mirror and recognizing the real problem.


92 posted on 06/16/2011 9:54:53 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 3boysdad

I’m just pointing out that we’ve allowed ourselves to become enmeshed in a constant circular argument which can only be compared with “tastes great” / “less filling”.

It’s either the unions fault, or taxation fault or anything else fault do avoid actually doing something.

The time is past for parlor arguments. Our nation teeters on ruin. China is defeating us right in front of our eyes.

This is not a game.


93 posted on 06/16/2011 9:55:00 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (BUY AMERICAN. The job you save will be your son's, or your daughter's)
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To: Nowhere Man

I agree. And let’s take a flame thrower to both houses while were at it. We can roast a Wiener over the flames.


94 posted on 06/16/2011 9:55:18 PM PDT by 3boysdad (The very elect.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
I say we start with the protect America thing now (since we aren’t) and then work out the rest.

You in?


I'm in. That is only the first step though an important one. I liked Donald Trump's idea of a 25% tariff on Red Chinese goods. Still, we have much more work to do after that, that alone will not solve our problems but like a Saturn V rocket, it will make a good first stage.
95 posted on 06/16/2011 9:57:21 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (General James Mattoon Scott, where are you when we need you? We need a regime change.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

No shit! But how do we stop it realisticaly?!! Elect Palin? Give me a break. It’s gonna take blood. But no one is up for that anymore.


96 posted on 06/16/2011 9:57:40 PM PDT by 3boysdad (The very elect.)
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To: 3boysdad; Cringing Negativism Network
I agree. And let’s take a flame thrower to both houses while were at it. We can roast a Wiener over the flames.

Sounds good, I'll bring the baked beans. B-) As to learning Mandarin, that is a reference of Red China possibly owning us if we don't watch out, but yeah, all I can add to that is the sound effect of a bolt closing on a Marlin Model 60 .22LR Rifle. We just need to come together now and work out a plan.
97 posted on 06/16/2011 10:00:28 PM PDT by Nowhere Man (General James Mattoon Scott, where are you when we need you? We need a regime change.)
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To: 3boysdad

If things are to the point it will take blood, then nothing will prevent that. I worry even those on our side are just plain clueless about how dangerous this situation is becoming. Fast.

What we should be doing first now before everyone is out of other options and our two nations collide - is doing what we can short of that. This “free trade” surrender thing is clearly destroying our nation, emboldening and making China stronger, and cannot end well.

For starters, tariffs. Real ones.


98 posted on 06/16/2011 10:02:13 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (BUY AMERICAN. The job you save will be your son's, or your daughter's)
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To: Nowhere Man
The only point I've been making on this thread is that you could set the tariff on Chinese products to %1000 and it WON'T DO A DAMN THING unless we get our government to get its spending under control.

So in reality, you're looking at a "good" second or third stage, if that's how you plan to shoot yourself to the moon.

99 posted on 06/16/2011 10:03:20 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: arrogantsob
The American government is spending money in China? I don’t think so.

The billions we give to Pakistan is buying new Chinese fighter jets...

100 posted on 06/16/2011 10:07:28 PM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (Arjuna, why have you have dropped your bow???)
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