Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.
Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:
The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:
Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.
It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.
Now that’s the spirit that settled the West! Don’t let ‘em grind you down . . . they’re relentless.
We are letting Red China eat our lunch, yes we need protective tarriffs but we also need to have a good business climate here too with low taxes and regulation. Still on the other side of the coin, I’m all for profits and free markets, but our sovereign security and well being as a nation trumps all. I think a good movie about this was “All My Sons” (1948) starring Edward G. Robinson and Burt Lancaster where Robinson plays an industrialist who builds fighter plane engines in World War II but he skimps on the quality to make more money and this results in the death of some of our pilots because the engines burn up.
... and you fail yet again to outline even one instance wherein you would recommend cutting that selfsame out-of-control government spending.
Well, it’s been mildly amusing but your use of the language is beginning to fray as usual, and it’s bedtime.
Good night.
I say we start with the protect America thing now (since we aren’t) and then work out the rest.
You in?
Oh, I know. But tweaking arrogant ESL’s into weird linguistic constructs is such nihilistic fun, I can’t help myself sometimes.
Good night, also. Better luck next time, just keep trying.
I need the economy to not collapse in the next 5 to 10 years and I’ll be ok. If it goes to a ‘30s style depression before then, I have a back up plan but it will be tough.
Never thought I’d be talking about the American economy like this. Hopefully we can get some adults in office during the next election to stablize and improve things.
1. Aggressively audit every Federal, state and local government agency and use the audit results to start cutting down the size of government--bureaucratic overlap, agency size and regulations--by 30% initially and over 50% in around four years. For example, we need to merge Social Security, Medicare and other social services into a singular Department and potentially save over US$400 billion per year off the Federal budget.
2. Massively overhaul our income tax system to reduce compliance cost and to encourage American residents and businesses to keep their savings and capital investments in the USA. The flat income tax plan proposed by Steve Forbes in a book he wrote in 2005 should be at minimum what tax reform should be, in my humble opinion.
3. Aggressively oversee the financial markets by requiring real liquidity backing for hedge funds, derivatives, and other "new"-style investments (or ban them outright as financially too risky), increasing the minimum margin requirements (MMR) for futures trading to 20% (and require the buyer take 40% physical delivery of goods bought on the futures market), and re-imposing the Glass-Steagall Act to "firewall" bank assets from the ups and downs of the stock market. Too much of the wealth generated nowadays is through the financial markets at the expense of almost everything else in the US economy, in my humble opinion.
We're not going to get any type of economic recovery. I'm surprised that the Greeks have not considered the first two, because the corrupt government and a progressive income tax system is literally killing their economy.
Is it Friday? Is eveyone drunk? No it's Thrusday.
I just pointed out that almost eveything you buy is foregin owned. I don't like it either. That's why I live where I live. If I were POTUS after 9/11 I would have nuked Meca and saved a shitload of American lives and money.
Now that's interesting! Is that just another way of admitting you got your ass kicked? "I couldn't understand what he said." LOLOL
No, no one is drunk, sadly. You just have a bunch of folks who would rather sit on their asses and bitch that the Chinese are coming instead of looking in the mirror and recognizing the real problem.
I’m just pointing out that we’ve allowed ourselves to become enmeshed in a constant circular argument which can only be compared with “tastes great” / “less filling”.
It’s either the unions fault, or taxation fault or anything else fault do avoid actually doing something.
The time is past for parlor arguments. Our nation teeters on ruin. China is defeating us right in front of our eyes.
This is not a game.
I agree. And let’s take a flame thrower to both houses while were at it. We can roast a Wiener over the flames.
No shit! But how do we stop it realisticaly?!! Elect Palin? Give me a break. It’s gonna take blood. But no one is up for that anymore.
If things are to the point it will take blood, then nothing will prevent that. I worry even those on our side are just plain clueless about how dangerous this situation is becoming. Fast.
What we should be doing first now before everyone is out of other options and our two nations collide - is doing what we can short of that. This “free trade” surrender thing is clearly destroying our nation, emboldening and making China stronger, and cannot end well.
For starters, tariffs. Real ones.
So in reality, you're looking at a "good" second or third stage, if that's how you plan to shoot yourself to the moon.
The billions we give to Pakistan is buying new Chinese fighter jets...
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