Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.
Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:
The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:
Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.
It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.
America first.
Rude people suck.
You think you are scoring points, here? You expect me to line up my soldiers single-file so you can take a potshot at the weakest one? And feel superior about it?
It boggles the mind that you would think that a substantive answer becomes something less just because you claim it is.
So does CNN.
We agree on something ! Finally.
That was the point. Dates back to Bush, when (contrary to their current position, if you will) CNN did nothing but find constant fault.
Odd how that changed.
One thing didn’t change.
Bush was wrong about “free trade” also.
So was Reagan, apparently . . . but don’t stop now, you’re on a roll.
You’re like a liberal, in that you say exactly the opposite of what is true, every post.
No, you’re like a liberal, in that you can’t prove it.
Reagan protected Harley Davidson.
It worked.
The functional opposite of “protectionist” is “surrenderist”.
And Bush protected steel. And Obama protected tires. Why the double standard?
A creative, competitive America is the answer to a changing world, not trade wars that would close doors, create greater barriers, and destroy millions of jobs. We should always remember: Protectionism is destructionism.
--Ronald Reagan
Want to make America first? Git rid of the Unions and the EPA (aka, green and warm fuzzy globull warming CO2 cap-n-trade Al Gore movement).
You haven’t given an answer, so the rest of your reply is just so much noise. You seem awfully concerned about “taking potshots at the weakest one,” even with your Heritage security blanket wrapped tightly about yourself.
Have some confidence, Rude. Put yourself out there and maybe face a little ridicule. Or, is it that you only dish it out, and taking it is just too much for your fragile self esteem, lol?
Well bless your little heart. That’s it, isn’t it?
A little something about being “vigilantees” did it for me about Bush.
Obama needs no more reason to fault on general principle. He’s a communist.
Blah blah blah.
All I can say is start learning Mandarin.
You will need it. For real.
Sorry, my dear . . . the internet is a harsh, cold place. You can only pretend to be intelligent for so long.
... and the voice of experience finally speaks, lol.
Just take a look at this thread. I had the audacity (imagine, on FR!) to claim that the single greatest threat to our Republic RIGHT NOW is out-of-control government spending, and a bunch of whelps start wimpering about China (and how they’re not being spoon-fed their counter-arguments).
Not by making excuses for globalist maroons, you won’t.
You’ll just be eaten last.
Forget rudeboy...He’s chicomboy...
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