Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.
Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:
The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:
Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.
It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.
Damn, you are upset. Things at the Oriental Massage not go as planned? Did you ask for a “happy ending,” and they assumed you wanted a young boy?
(I'm not endorsing Pawlenty, by the way . . . but let's not let that stop my admirers from going into menopause).
haha...you stin ki pu....You buy some nice china soap...Make you happy...Make you proud...
Whatever you do, don’t ask anyone else on this thread for suggestions. They have nothing.
Was this inclusive of yourself, or do you have suggestions?
(I'll give you a hint though: I mentioned something about government spending--why don't you start there and read farther down the thread?)
Good thinking...Great strategy....Bet no one ever thought of that!
Of course, even under the Republicans, spending went through the roof....Sounds great....Good luck with that!
I’ll be somewhat more charitable and presume some temporary lapse in cognition on your part. You should get that checked out.
But in the meantime, return to the question asked of you, to which you apparently replied in some disembodied state, which then prompted my reply. Work on understanding the implications of that series of exchanges, and then get back to me.
Looks like I had to remind you. There are other intelligent people out there, though.
Any other questions? As I alluded to earlier, the density on this thread is approaching that of a collapsed star.
Good thinking...Great strategy....Bet no one ever thought of that!
Of course, even under the Republicans, spending went through the roof....Sounds great....Good luck with that!
Looks like I had to remind you.
Riiiight...Yeah...you'll never see in my history calling for bloated, all controlling, corrupt government to be dramatically slashed and reduce in size and scope...
You're slick!
Still floating around disembodied, I see. May I point out that you, such as you are, are on this thread?
I don’t know about your history, nor do I care about it. I do know that you didn’t call for any spending cuts on this thread. Instead, you came after me for doing so.
There it is: the equivalent of sticking your fingers in your hears and humming na-na-na. Let me guess, Ron Paul supporter?
Where?
Great Idea, now where would you start cutting. Give it your best shot.
Answering "Tpaw" is not anyone's best shot, unless your best is shooting a brick.
Specifically, where would you begin cutting, oh self-styled arbiter of all things China and intellectual? Sort of a bad combination when you get right down to it, China and intellectuals. The have an unfortunate historic habit of turning up dead over there, you know. Maybe you could put a nice big bunch of flowers on their graves if you can find them, next time you're there.
In my pocket is a zippo lighter.
In my backpack is a buck knife.
In my driveway, an American car. Stop pretending it’s not possible.
Meanwhile, keep the topic alive. America first.
In any case, "Tpaw"'s plan was pretty good. Sorry you are not familiar with it. Perhaps you'd enjoy reading another version from Heritage?
Still no answer from you. Where would you begin cutting, Rudie?
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