Posted on 05/15/2011 10:41:34 AM PDT by techno
A huge obstacle in Sarah Palin's pathway to the GOP nomination and ultimately to the presidency was removed last night with Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012.
I am a number's person and with that in mind I would like to review several sets of statistics and data which indicate to me that the GOP nomination if Palin's to win or lose and that she is indeed entrenched in the catbird seat now without even firing a shot.
Here is why:
1)Palin is the darling of the TP movement. In late January Rasmussen released a poll showing that Palin had a 68% VERY FAVORABLE rating with GOP TP members, and in case you don't know many Tea Partiers also self-identify as evangelical Christians which happen according to the 2008 exit polls comprise about 40% of the GOP primary electorate then. And Palin is also very strong in that community.
2)Lack of a viable stalking-horse on the right. Whatever you think of Bachmann and Cain, they are dark horses polling at most 5% of the national vote while Palin constantly polls in the first tier. With Huckabee's departure, I expect Palin's momentum to surge and whatever increase in support they had to fall by the wayside. Why? Because the base of the GOP will come to realize neither MB or Cain can win. They will eventually go with the winner and that is Sarah Palin, if you are a conservative.
3)72% of Republicans self-identify as conservative while only 27% self-identify as liberals and moderates. Simply put Romney does not play well to the conservative movement while Palin does. And as you can see there 2 and 1/2 times more conservatives than liberal/moderates in the GOP.
4)Rasmussen recently conducted a poll in which he found 2/3 of the GOP call themselves social conservatives and around 50% of independents do. Sarah Palin is extremely popular in this group. Once she declares the bulk of these folks will be in her tent.
5)Facebook did a survey of the 2010 elections and found that 74% of candidates with the greater Facebook membership won the House race and that went up to 82% in the Senate. Palin has close to 3m members on her Facebook while Mitt is only around 900,000.
6)Rasmussen found on March 29, 2011 that 9 out of 10 conservative voters are ANGRY; Sarah Palin is well qualified to play to that anger and stoke it even further. Can we say that about Mitt or T-Paw?
7)Rasmussen has clearly shown that a clear majority of the electorate want Obamacare repealed. Who of the all the candidates has issued an undeniable, undiluted clarion call for its repeal? Sarah Palin.
8)Gallup this week found Sarah Palin has the highest favorables among the GOP contenders based on matching up recognition and favorables/unfavorables at 71%. Huck was 2nd before he decided not to run.
9)Sarah Palin consistently wins online polls. These polls measure intensity. Sarah Palin has the most intensity of all the first-tier candidates (Ron Paul is not a first-tier candidate).
10)And finally Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat because of her book sales and the SRO crowds that always attend her events. Nobody among the GOP contenders comes close to matching Palin's personal and political appeal.
I know I could cite other statistics but I think you get the idea. Sarah Palin is formidable and as Mike Huckabee said a few months ago, "She may not be able to be stopped."
Belated hat-tip to you (see my post #67). :^)
You are correct...Thank you!
Moot...
I agree with your post....
I thought alot about what Huckabee said in regards to not running....He said his decision was based on a spiritual awakening of his heart...
Just my thoughts, but it might be GOD saying..Man’s rein and rule on earth is now over....Obama will soon be out and Christ will return and finally put this dark broken world back together.....
A person who believes Palin is electable tells me *I* need to face reality? That’s rich.
Undoubtedly I’d vote for her if she is the nominee - no question. Can she win over Independents? Not so sure.
Her peak popularity was the day McCain picked her for VP. She’s been downhill ever since with maybe a small blip upwards.
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Sarah - 2,957,282
obama - 20,409,394
Rather than show us the Facebook numbers for a Palin vs. the President 18 months away from an election, how about Facebook numbers for Palin vs. the other potential Republican nominees?
That might just be a wee bit more meaningful.
Hey Finny good to see you again ...and I agree with post 67...
That might just be a wee bit more meaningful
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Why? The original post claimed that Facebook Friend numbers are a clear indication of who wins elections, not nominations.
If you want to argue that this is valid then it would be less than honest to ignore obama's 17,000,000 "friend" advantage.
Your reasoning would be valid if the election were now, but it’s NOT valid to compare Facebook numbers for a sitting president with those of an individual who may not even run for the office.
What would be meaningful would be Facebook friend numbers as of the end of October 2012. You don’t happen to have those at your fingertips, do you?
I have no response to that!
I suggest you change your user name, just a thought.
“But that ought not be reason for you to throw epithets that look like they are aimed at me and others like me. It just makes you seem... bitter and unable to marshal your arguments very well.”
Well, maybe I should be more clear. The type of person I was refering to are those that cannot see Palin’s flaws or even acknowledge she has them. I can like and support a candidate and still acknowledge they have negatives. If you can support Sarah, but acknowledge she isn’t perfection, then you aren’t a fanatic.
Every candidate, even Ronald Reagan, I have supported ( even vigorously so), I did so recognizing they had faults.
Most Facebook addicts won’t leave their computers (I-pads I-phones) long enough to go inside the polling place.
I wouldn’t count on Obama winning with those tactics again, anyway.
We are on to him and to his Move On buddies.
RR I think uses Chucky Todd poll, aka NBC/WSJ.
Obama’s Facebook friends are from all over the world. How many of the number you quote are American citizens? How many over 18? How many are actually registered to vote? How many plan to vote in the next election?
Better go back to Polling School, moose!
Crapola
And there you have it. I agree, no one is without their flaws.
And here we are, free to choose - and condemned to choose - from the array of choices actually before us. So, at the moment, I choose Palin. If she falters, or drops out, I’ll move on.
In 2008 I supported Fred Thompson, and I was very disappointed when he left the race. But I got over it. I held my nose and voted for McCain, mostly because of Sarah Palin. I decided then, that if she wanted to make a run on her own, I’d back her. So far, I am still waiting for her to make that decision. Who knows, she may decide to do something different with the rest of her life, and that’s for her to weigh.
Anyway, thanks for your clarification, and best of luck. I’d expect that by August of next year, we’ll be shoulder to shoulder behind whoever has been selected to remove the present occupant out of the White House.
You are only fooling yourself. Have a wonderful night.
The thing that gets me most about folks wanting to write-off Palin as unelectable, not attractive to independents, etc., is that she's an American who, when they hear she is going to be in their neighborhood to talk politics, fellow Americans come out by the thousands, tens of thousands, to hear her and see her talk politics.
Not one other political figure -- not Obama himself, nor either Clinton -- could draw more than a thousand, if that. Not one other American, not even the most brilliant and honored of all, Thomas Sowell, could bring that many wanting to hear about politics. When we have a cadre of Republicans and conservatives so blithely overlooking a stunning ability to draw THOUSANDS of average folks to hear not discussions about pop stars or sports or the latest reality show, but politics -- well, then we have a cadre of Republicans and conservatives who are something more than perplexing and irritating.
What about connecting with people regarding politics don't Palin detractors understand?
They also tend to be pretty emotional. Case in point: they accuse Palin supporters of being "worshippers" who think she's some kind of "Messiah." They know as well as we do that those terms are used solely as insults. They fail to enlighten or provide depth as to the real-world events that we're embroiled in; they only serve to scramble emotions and anger into the mix. They tell a lot about the person making the accuasation, and zilch about the typical American who hopes Palin will run.
Before the campaign begins in earnest, she will declare if she is running or not. Until then, and who knows how many months that will be, there is a lot of organizing, jockeying, positions to take, candidates to run or not run, with lots of surprises in store as events unfold.
None of us know what is going to happen yet. None of us can see this clearly.
I'm hoping she runs, and hoping she can gain the support to win, but I don't think anyone knows who is in the catbird seat just yet.
Once the early primaries are done, we might know.
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