Posted on 05/15/2011 10:41:34 AM PDT by techno
A huge obstacle in Sarah Palin's pathway to the GOP nomination and ultimately to the presidency was removed last night with Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012.
I am a number's person and with that in mind I would like to review several sets of statistics and data which indicate to me that the GOP nomination if Palin's to win or lose and that she is indeed entrenched in the catbird seat now without even firing a shot.
Here is why:
1)Palin is the darling of the TP movement. In late January Rasmussen released a poll showing that Palin had a 68% VERY FAVORABLE rating with GOP TP members, and in case you don't know many Tea Partiers also self-identify as evangelical Christians which happen according to the 2008 exit polls comprise about 40% of the GOP primary electorate then. And Palin is also very strong in that community.
2)Lack of a viable stalking-horse on the right. Whatever you think of Bachmann and Cain, they are dark horses polling at most 5% of the national vote while Palin constantly polls in the first tier. With Huckabee's departure, I expect Palin's momentum to surge and whatever increase in support they had to fall by the wayside. Why? Because the base of the GOP will come to realize neither MB or Cain can win. They will eventually go with the winner and that is Sarah Palin, if you are a conservative.
3)72% of Republicans self-identify as conservative while only 27% self-identify as liberals and moderates. Simply put Romney does not play well to the conservative movement while Palin does. And as you can see there 2 and 1/2 times more conservatives than liberal/moderates in the GOP.
4)Rasmussen recently conducted a poll in which he found 2/3 of the GOP call themselves social conservatives and around 50% of independents do. Sarah Palin is extremely popular in this group. Once she declares the bulk of these folks will be in her tent.
5)Facebook did a survey of the 2010 elections and found that 74% of candidates with the greater Facebook membership won the House race and that went up to 82% in the Senate. Palin has close to 3m members on her Facebook while Mitt is only around 900,000.
6)Rasmussen found on March 29, 2011 that 9 out of 10 conservative voters are ANGRY; Sarah Palin is well qualified to play to that anger and stoke it even further. Can we say that about Mitt or T-Paw?
7)Rasmussen has clearly shown that a clear majority of the electorate want Obamacare repealed. Who of the all the candidates has issued an undeniable, undiluted clarion call for its repeal? Sarah Palin.
8)Gallup this week found Sarah Palin has the highest favorables among the GOP contenders based on matching up recognition and favorables/unfavorables at 71%. Huck was 2nd before he decided not to run.
9)Sarah Palin consistently wins online polls. These polls measure intensity. Sarah Palin has the most intensity of all the first-tier candidates (Ron Paul is not a first-tier candidate).
10)And finally Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat because of her book sales and the SRO crowds that always attend her events. Nobody among the GOP contenders comes close to matching Palin's personal and political appeal.
I know I could cite other statistics but I think you get the idea. Sarah Palin is formidable and as Mike Huckabee said a few months ago, "She may not be able to be stopped."
Agreed.
2)Lack of a viable stalking-horse on the right. Whatever you think of Bachmann and Cain, they are dark horses polling at most 5% of the national vote while Palin constantly polls in the first tier.
The media could start displaying Bachmann and/or Cain prominently, splitting the conservative vote.
6)Rasmussen found on March 29, 2011 that 9 out of 10 conservative voters are ANGRY; Sarah Palin is well qualified to play to that anger and stoke it even further. Can we say that about Mitt or T-Paw?
Trojan/Stalking Horse Trump with his F-bomb, anti China and anti OPEC rhetoric, if he enters the race, would split off some ANGRY voters. Doesn't seem to matter that he oddly makes no criticism of big government power and spending. Some people are so ANGRY, they don't realize that Trump hasn't been, and still isn't now, conservative.
Just pointing out a few potential problems. They will throw other conservatives, angry blow-hards with bad hair and the kitchen sink at Palin.
You should count on it.
He’d been a massive pain in the butt about her for a while. But what got him banned is when he insinuated that the gov was buying her good press with Tammy Bruce through oral sex.
I want a conservative who can beat Obama. Otherwise, what is the point? If Sarah can beat him, then I hope she runs and is the nominee. If it looks like she can’t win, then we need someone else. We cannot have four more years of Obama. And I worry about Bristol’s effect on her as well.
Hadn’t he been on FR for a long time? I’m surprised but then, I guess he should have known better.
Agreed. It is without question that the RNC is no longer a Conservative Constitutionalist organization. In fact, it would be more accurate to say that they have proven themselves time and again to be actually anti-Conservative and anti-Woman.
I know it sounds cynical but I view the RNC as a partner to the DNC with the common goal of maintaining the status quo of the ruling aristocracy.
And that is what the DNC/RNC, Jews, Blacks, and other minorities fear so much. That a ‘real’ American might be elected who would ‘represent’ Americans with common sense instead of ‘ruling’ the American people with courts and force of law as they are doing now. Sarah or Bachman would upset the gravy train.
Even GW and his father were elitists and more Liberal than Conservative. Remember NWO and ‘a thousand points of light’ and Amnesty and putting Kennedy in charge of education? Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama(very nearly Clinton again), is no accident. Not a single Conservative for more than 20 years and we have the economy, national debt, and oil prices to prove it.
The biggest fear Congress has is the American patriot, and the last thing any of them want is an uncorruptable American patriot as President.
Just watch. Just like they did with McCain, the RNC will support the most far, far-Left Republican they can find. DNC/RNC working together are two sides of the same status quo coin.
Together, they rig the election so that they don’t really care who wins. Either way they get another status quo in office. Either way, the elites win and the gravy train keeps pouring.
This is the real fear of Sarah Palin.
Agreed.
Huckabee was the one guy who might have succeeded in deflecting some of the Evangelical vote away from Sarah, as he succeeded in doing from Fred in the 2008 primaries. He sent out millions of phone messages in the southern states falsely claiming that Fred was pro-abortion, and that was the clincher for getting Fred out of the race, so McCain could come in with help from his Florida pal.
IMHO, the Huckster is a fake religious figure, but he has managed to keep some credibility with the religious right despite his many flaws and failings. So this is good news, indeed. No one else currently in contention would have his influence with that constituency.
Of course, he might still suddenly stand up and endorse someone else, but I don’t think that would have the same effect as pretending to run himself.
I’ve actually enjoyed the pissant void.
Gee I was called anti-Christian for having that view on another thread.
Did you get that nonsense from the AP, or from one of their left-wing pollsters?
You know, one of those pollsters that double the sampling of Democrats, and only 3% in the sample for the Independents?
Well there was that one where Charlie Sheen was beating her...yeah it was ridiculous, but to say she has any real popularity among independents is dishonest.
“And since it belongs to her, she can take her time.”
That is arrogant presumption. Sarah has to earn it like anyone that wants my or other’s votes. She doesn’t “own” anything.
Sometimes I think Sarah’s biggest liability is her fanatical supporters.
Tone it down...you are hurting Sarah Palin’s chances by your statements of extreme support. Certainly you should back your choice, but don’t be obnoxious (arrogance is obnoxious) about it.....that is one of the things that makes her “scary” to some. In the same way Obama is scary by the blind support he gets.
Palin Speaks to Investors in Hong Kong
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2346270/posts
The Chinese Connection via the CLSA: Sarah Palin Enters the Lion’s Den
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2345119/posts
Arming Goldman With Pistols Against Public: Alice Schroeder
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ahD2WoDAL9h0
Dec 3, 2009
[Title and link only, as no content from Bloomberg is allowed to be posted at FR.]
Intelligent Investing Panel
Going Great Guns
Forbes
David Serchuk, 04.23.09
"Thomas:...But, you know, you could always find another job that would pay all right, and pay slightly above minimum wage, could allow you to at least live and have a home in most communities. And I think that's slowly changed."
[...]
"Forbes: I was in Colorado, and I knew people who had 200, 300 guns. And they'd stash them in various hidden places around their compound. This wasn't all that uncommon out west."
[...]
"Sonders:...we have gone from a couple decades ago being a manufacturing economy to more of a service-oriented, information economy. That has just displaced permanently a lot of workers,..."
Sarah is good to go!
Look at the competition now: Trump, Romney, Paul, Gingrich.
She could beat any of those bums.
>>> Sometimes I think Sarah’s biggest liability is her fanatical supporters.>>>
I ALWAYS think Palin’s biggest problem is her kool aid kook supporters. They are every bit as bad as Ron Paul’s kool aiders. I really like Palin. I would vote for her over most of the folks in the GOP field today and certainly against any Democrat. But her over the top supporters really are a turn off. It’s why I would never go to a Palin rally, something I would have happily done a year or two ago.
I hope she announces Labor Day... or even 4th of July... the suspense is killing me
To show you how dangerous Sarah Palin is to upsetting the RINO applecart, after polling over 70% in a poll by US election news to the question of who stands to benefit the most from Huckabee’s announcement, the pollster unceremoniously removes Palin’s name from the choices given and claims they are doing so because too many supporters of Sarah Palin have responded to the poll and voted for her.
Yes, Virginia, Sarah Palin is indeed in the catbird seat and she will soon get off her chair. I know the anti-Palin forces on both the Left and the Right can hardly wait. /sarc
Unless pissant has be unbanned/reinstated, you have nothing to fear
If you lose small or lose big, you still lose. GOP has been running candidates who don’t even make the case philosophically. They just sort of agree that the Democrat is a nice person and they chide conservatives at every turn because it seems to make them feel that they are acceptable to the intellectuals and elites. I want someone to make the case, to make the distinction very clear and let the chips fall where they may.Someone has to speak the truth. The Supreme Court is on the line. There is not time to wait until 2016.
I doubt very much whether Todd would allow that!
...oh, you meant out-polling her.
Cheers!
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