Posted on 11/20/2010 9:28:23 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
THINGS are looking up for Barack Obama.
You might not think so, given the flow of news lately. His foreign policy has met with limited success, at best. And, back home, unemployment is mired at 9.6 percent. Earlier this month, in a major political blow, Democrats lost more than 60 seats and control of the House of Representatives.
So what is there for Mr. Obama and his supporters to cheer about?
Try this: Based on the facts at hand right now, Mr. Obama is likely to win the 2012 election in a landslide. That, at least, is the prediction of Ray C. Fair, a Yale economist and an expert on econometrics and on the relationship of economics and politics.
What’s the basis of this forecast? In a nutshell: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
That’s the smart-alecky slogan that James Carville, the Democratic strategist, used to focus the 1992 presidential election campaign and propel Bill Clinton to victory. But after many years of study, Professor Fair has found that it embodies a certain truth: The state of the economy — which includes the wealth effect produced by rising and falling asset prices — has a dominant influence on national elections.
In recent columns, I’ve explored how elections — and Wall Street’s beliefs about them — affect the markets and the economy. Professor Fair has studied the flip side: how the economy helps to determine elections.
While updating his 2002 book, “Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,” he has calculated his first prediction for the next national election and posted it on his Yale Web site. He says the likely outcome is an Obama victory, regardless of whom he runs against. “If my model’s right, it couldn’t look better for Obama,” he said....
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
This phrase belongs among "Famous Last Words."
What a Maroon
And the NYT will make a profit next year.
Pray for America
Saying it doesn’t make it so.
No kidding. Just ask bagdad bob or nancy pelosi.
Prof. Fair has a good track record. We should be careful against wishful thinking of an Obama defeat at the hands of a GOP opponent. Even now, with unemployment in double digits, his approval ratings are over 40%. With even a slight uptick by 2012, he will clear 50%. A landslide is not out of the question if the economy improves.
http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=CT&last=fair&first=ray
Yes monetizing the debt thereby causing hyper inflation and doing away with the Bush tax cuts will certainly ensure a very robust economy in the next 2 years/SARC
As I recall Fair has been wrong a few times, most notably in 2004 when he said Bush would win by a large margin thanks to the good economy!
In any case if 0bama wins again but Republicans take the Senate, and keep a majority in the House, it might not be the worst thing. It clears the way for Marco Rubio to get elected in 2016.
Sadly, you’re right. With just a bit of an upturn in umemployment, he can claim what a great job he’s doing. Combine that with the sheeple’s very, very short memory and
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can’t bring myself to finish the “and”
“....an expert on econometrics and on the relationship of economics and politics....”
Hmmmmmmm.....is “econometrics” progressive-speech for FAIL?
LOOKOUT 2012!!!
Let’s just hope the bank run in France on December 7th they’re building over there doesn’t put a speedbump in front of the “brilliant” gay-guy in the People’s House, or the oh-so-smart Yale guy. Gay-guy and his puppet-master soros might look bad.
Yeah, those polls proved what on election day 2012? Landslide for the ‘rats?
Next Friday will tell all.
0bama overpolled in 2008 and continues to do so. You cannot really poll in the 40s and lose 64 House races. Eventhough he is technically in the 40s his poll support comes from guilty whites and blacks, who at this point, are not going to make up the defections of white males and independents if the election were held today.
However, 0bama does have a very good shot of being reelected.
You doo not need an Ivy League education to know that incumbent Presidents rarely lose, only 5 times last century (GHW Bush, Carter, Ford, Hoover, and Taft). I think Gov Chris Christie would blow 0bama out.
Two weeks ago, Democrats got the biggest midterm beatdown since 1948.
This week, they talking about how much ass they’re gonna kick in two years.
Okay.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/21/early-voting-election-day_n_771047.html
article is from Huffington post, headline read:
“Early Voting Shows Surprising Turnout For Democrats”
His model does not include all the mandates that Obama will order over the next two years that will destroy the economy even more. Did the good professor include the tax increases that will be implemented on January 1? Taxes for individuals in the lowest bracket will increase by 50%. And they'll be voting for Obama? Yeah, right.
Gee, no bias there.
What we’ve got to look forward to from “economists” for the next two years...
November 2010: Recovery Winter is here!
March 2011: Recovery Spring has sprung!
June 2011: Recovery Summer is here! Shining so bright we gotta wear shades!
September 2011: Recovery Fall, where the only thing that’s gonna fall is our unemployment rate! Woohoo!!!
December 2011: Santa’s bringing the Recovery, baby! Aw yeah!!
(repeat for ‘12)
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