Posted on 04/07/2010 5:38:19 PM PDT by Bigtigermike
If Sarah Palin runs for President, then she will win the Republican nomination. The rally she is holding today with Michelle Bachmann is amazing, and Obama-like, in it's size:
More than 10,000 Republican faithful are expected to crowd into the Minneapolis Convention Center on Wednesday when Sarah Palin joins Rep. Michele Bachmann at a fundraiser and rally for Bachmann's re-election bid and the Minnesota state Republican Party.
Anyone who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in Minnesota--in early 2010, no less-- is formidable. In the specific case of Sarah Palin, it makes her virtually unstoppable.
National polling for the Republican nomination has consistently shown Palin in a roughly three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. However:
1. Huckabee is unlikely to run, and his evangelical / born again base (virtually all Huckabee voters in 2008 were evangelicals) is a lot closer to Sarah Palin than they are to Mitt Romney. So, Palin will likely start ahead in national polls among declared candidates.
2. Romney's strength in 2008 was in caucuses, which are dominated by dedicated activists. Of the 11 states that Romney won in 2008, three were "home" states (MA, where he was Governor; MI where his father was Governor; and UT for religion), and the other eight were all caucuses. However, Romney isn't going to win many caucuses if he is facing a candidate who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in early 2010, not to mention what is likely a tarnished reputation among Republican activists after the health care fight.
3. Palin's grassroots strength will provide her with all the funding she needs, and also goes a long way to pre-empting any possible insurgent candidacy against her. This will especially be the case if Ron Paul runs again, since Paul can't win the nomination but would soak up pretty much all of the remaining grassroots energy on the Republican side.
4. Say what you will about Palin's ability as a campaigner, but if gaffes were going to make her unpopular among Republicans, it would have happened already.
If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012, I have a difficult time imagining someone else winning the Republican nomination. While this is pretty good news for Democrats, as Palin polls worse against Obama than almost any other Republican (see also PPP polling), it is also pretty scary. A continually weak economy--which is very possible--could actually make her President less than three years from now.
She has a lot going for her but a lot against her. High risk candidate for sure. Conventionally speaking the safest candidate would be Huckabee. Relatively young, long-term governor, Southern, able to tap easily into a large evangelical base.
You can say a lot of things about Palin, but she is a fighter and that scares the hell out of both Mitt and Obama.
Watch out concretebob will come after you. He thinks he’s sheriff Andy Taylor. To me he seems more like Barnie Fife.
I DISAGREE WITH THE IDEA that Huck would get more evangelical/born again voters than Sarah. Speaking as one, I am with Sarah.
And for the Gaffe remark, that somehow Sarah has made gaffes? I have not seen any!
Almost forgot.....National polls you say???? National polls are taken by pollsters that despise Sarah, so they are fixed to show her tied or behind Romney and Huck etc. The MSM and the National polls want to say that Sarah is tied or trailing those other 2.
The possibility that Huck does not run in 2012 sends shivers down the backs of Team Romney. TR could make all the right political decisions but it wouldn’t matter if Huck’s potential voters go to Palin.
"Last time ..." about anything in today's USA is totally irrelevant in this election cycle (with a big assumption that we will have elections as usual or on schedule).
This nation has never, never in its history had so many people wide awake and on edge; not prior to the Civil War; not prior to the Revolution. And more people are waking up every day.
It's called "responding in kind." When a dimwit posts something as ridiculous as "Palin can't win because half my inbred drinking buddies don't like her," it generates an equally insipid and vacuous response from people who still have all their brain cells, just to make a point.
I understand that your comeback will be delayed while you go out and buy a dictionary so you can have Mommy read what "insipid" and "vacuous" mean for you. Take your time.
All kidding aside, I can see that there is only one possible candidate out there who generates the numbers that will be required to win in 2012 and wrest this country away from the O'Bunga Communist Cabal. I also see that our very most basic freedoms, our way of life, and our Nation's place in the world of the last remaining "defender of liberty" for the entire world hangs in the balance.
The direness of the plight makes me very demonstrably angry when I see anyone tearing down our one last chance; Sarah Palin. You probably feel you have a good reason for doing it, but there is no such thing as a good reason to enable O'Bunga's destruction of our country.
Never mind the harsh words, this is something I am willing to die for. Period. Unnerstan...?
;-/ :-)
Oh has it? The ability to draw large crowds does not demonstrate that: no one denies she gets certain groups of conservatives very excited, but they aren’t a majority of the country and many people (including many conservatives) are concerned about that.
I don’t know Alaska law, but she wouldn’t have had much trouble raising a legal defense fund would she?
Because you and your posse deserve them.
Well that sucks, and maybe Alaska law was poorly written in this regard (this wasn’t the law she signed, was it?), but she still hasn’t demonstrated she has what it takes to be an effective executive at a high level.
Unfortunately we aren’t exactly blessed with conservative politicians who have demonstrated that and strong charisma, so we may have to settle for one or the other.
Ah, the old 'electability' trap that always brings us candidates like Dole and McCain. Take it somewhere else.
LOL! A ‘certain group’ of conservatives! Nice crappy try on your part. They are from all partys. You look like a fool that you don’t even know that.
Conservatives are concerned about the commie in the WH - not conservative SARAH.
You wouldn’t know conservatism if it hit you in the face! Conservatives KNOW their own, chump! Flake off and stop spreading commie propaganda on this conservative site.
The Republicans wouldn’t dare work with Sarah in Alaska to changed the loopholes in the law, WHY? because the Repubs hated her for going against their corruption, remember they tried to kick her out of the party because she wasn’t one of the Good ol’ boys....she did stood up to the republicans when they were wrong
Wow, how typically misinformed you are.
She DID! But a Democrat special investigator in Alaska ruled that she could not use it.
Obama's minions had effectively paralyzed her administration and bankrupted her and her family in a carefully calculated, deliberate plan to trap and crush her in Alaska, which she thwarted by resigning and going National. It's been well documented despite what some losers on this forum would have everyone believe.
So go educate yourself before you embarrass yourself any further.
LOL, this is the kind of news that make Sarah’s detractors soil their Depends – Chris Mathews comes to mind!
You’re too blind to realize that much of the country laughs at how simple-minded people like you are, and even many solid conservatives—certainly not the sort who push for McCain and his ilk—recognize your naiveté and dismiss your opinion as uninformed and hopefully not politically meaningful. Historically people like you haven’t been a political force, which is kind of a shame because if more conservatives were actually reasonable and thoughtful we’d have way more influence.
People like you are part of the reason we get nominees like McCain and Dole.
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