2012 Contracts Now Available on Intrade -- Palin is Underpriced

Intrade ^ | December 5, 2008 | Intrade

[Kevmo]

Intrade opened up contracts for 2012 recently. Palin is priced at $12, Jindal at $22, which suggests Palin is underpriced compared to her popularity. There is an anti-Palin/Anti-Social Conservative bias at Intrade, so that is probably dampening Palin's price.

[Kevmo]

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[Kevmo]

Maybe it's time to start an Intrade ping list. Momaw Nadon had one for the election, but this would be for ongoing Intrade items.

Google

[SmokingJoe]

Trading on 2012 elections now is like trading on 2012 oil prices now, only much worse. Even early this year, the experts were talking about a $200 oil price by the end of the year. Look where oil is at now.
2 weeks after the RNC convention, Intrade had McCain winning by 5%.

[Rick_Michael]

He would have, if the economic crisis didn’t occur.

[nathanbedford]

I posted beforeCharlie Gibson and the Katie Couric interviews and I repeat now, the McCain campaign should have presented Palin in a serious and prestigious venue, such as The National Press Club, and arranged for her to deliver a serious prepared speech, preferably or probably about energy a subject about which each could credibly claim a level of expertise. She certainly should done this instead of going defenseless before Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric. The appearance would have gained her a measure of gravitas and therefore a measure of immunity from the attacks alleging that she was an airhead.

It is still not too late. She should seek out such a venue and attack all of the energy assumptions of the Obama position. In this financial climate she will find a receptive audience. The country is not about to go marching into bankruptcy to satisfy the greens. Cap and trade is too juicy a target in an environment in which we lost half a million jobs in November to pass up. Even though the price of gas at the pump in has been significantly reduced, it is still out of reach for most families who are facing foreclosure, joblessness, and bankruptcy in their small business. There is no better issue right now for Sarah Palin to exploit. She can win over the whole of the Rust Belt and the coal mining areas. At the same time she can perform conservatism a service by debunking this global change madness.

One last piece of gratuitous advice: Sarah get yourself a voice coach, modulate your voice, pace your sentences, and stop smiling so much, it makes you look nervous- we already know what a nice person you are. Work on the forensic skills and a serious message. A serious message is not designed to win over the electorate, it is to change your image with the literati who will not be won over but who will have to change their template and line of attack. The serious side is not meant to be a substitute for your winning personality but merely a supplement which your supporters can point to refute allegations on the airhead issue.

Here is an issue, you can certainly command an audience, will you seize the moment? Can you modify your delivery?

[guitarist]

Listen, I like Sarah as much as anyone. When she talks about Trig and pro-life, and energy and Alaska issues, she is tops. But did you see the Couric interviews? Sarah can’t compete in the big leagues without doing LOTS more homework—more than she has time to do between now and 2011, when the race starts. Part of the reason we all rallied behind her is because we had no choice, and the leftists were beating up on her. But she is miserably uninformed on the issues compared to, say, Jindal and Romney, who are ready to run today. Please tell your friends who are supporting her to quit!

[ChetNavVet]

WTF, I don’t get the gist of this thread. Money amounts and what not, but I’m game if you explain. Here’s my take:

Bobby Jindal is Silver, some of the other more Conserve might be worthy of Gold.

And SP is Platinum? No she is far more precious to me, and many others, because she did kick a$$. And if she wants to go forward, well let’s just say that the Plat is studded with the one thing that is harder than a diamond, US. Yes that’s right, You, Me, etc. SP has learned so much being a part of this Prez race.

I like her yes, but I’m of the opinion that we need to let her do what she gotta do... I’d love for her to seek higher office once again. I’d activly spread kick a$$ flyers in my area...

[Gondring]

But she is miserably uninformed on the issues compared to, say, Jindal and Romney, who are ready to run today. Please tell your friends who are supporting her to quit!

Yes...any liberal who gave her answers would have been FRIED by FReepers. I'd MUCH rather she spent the time catching up on things, rather than going out and sounding like a broken record on energy again, letting liberals marginalize conservatives even further.

And I admit, I was one of the folks pushing for her nomination waaay back, before we even had a nominee.

But if she decides to go the route of a serious campaign on the energy issue, she shouldn't kick it off now...she should wait til spring, when prices will soon be rising again.

[SmokingJoe]

“But did you see the Couric interviews? Sarah can’t compete in the big leagues “

When did Couric become the “big league”?
I know Couric. Couric is no big league. Couric is as empty headed as the rest of them.
Gov Plain is a heck o a lot more informed and has vastly more executive experience, and us far more qualified to be president then Comrade Obama, let alone Couric.

“But she is miserably uninformed on the issues compared to, say, Jindal and Romney”

What issues are those? The issues where clueless clowns like Obama have no clue what affects the bread and butter issues that face ordinary in their day to day lives?

” Please tell your friends who are supporting her to quit!”

No.
You tell your pals that have climbed aboard the vicious MSM effort to drag Gov Palin down, to stop it.

[SmokingJoe]

“Yes...any liberal who gave her answers would have been FRIED by FReepers”

Are you serious?
I suggest you watch some of Comrade Obama’s pathetic answers in the interviews that he did after he entered the race to be president. This is a guy that appeared on TV program after TV program, and incredibly kept insisting that a surge in Iraq would actually lead to us getting beaten in Iraq. I don't remember Gov Palin giving stupid answers like Obama did. And the sucker is about to enter the White House next year. Gov Plain did a heck of a lot better, just a week after being suddenly, and unexpectedly nominated, than Obama did after years of preparation before making his announcement.

[nathanbedford]

I believe that Sarah Palin's problem is not that she is "miserably uninformed" but that she is perceived to be uninformed. The media has virtually destroyed her on this issue. Saturday Night Live probably more than any other outlet. An uninformed politician has normally not a fatal defect. By way of example, Vice President elect Joe Biden is miserably misinformed, demonstrably dishonest, and the thief of other man's thoughts, a plagiarist. Nevertheless, he carries the honorarium, "Vice President elect Joseph Biden."

Biden gets away with it for two reasons, the media favors him and sounds authoritative. In his debate with Palin he misspoke numerous times but it affected the race not at all. What counts is how the television shows the individual. Biden showed authoritative and Palin showed nouveau.

Hence, my suggestion that Palin hire a forensic coach to address the perception problem.

I disagree emphatically that now is too early for Palin to make her mark on the energy issue. She must do the spadework and now so that she can speak from a well-established position of authority when these matters go before the Congress. It will be too late then to both gain recognition and persuade. Let her speak now from a prepared text on the full range of energy issues. It is not merely a question of the price at the pump but of jobs in the coal mines and factories and the price of bread and milk for the kids. The energy issue is a gold mine for conservatives. If we wait we will lose the March.

[SmokingJoe]

“He would have, if the economic crisis didn’t occur.”

He could have, if he hadn't blown everything, by first of all blaming Republicans for the crisis, instead of the real culprits, Barneys Frank and Obama and their affirmative action lending policies that they forced on Sally and Freddie.
Then McCain followed that blunder up by voting for the hated “bailout” bill. Nobody destroyed McCain like McClain did.

[wideminded]

I'd MUCH rather she spent the time catching up on things

Somebody on TV the other night was saying about Palin that it's much easier to study for a few years and catch up on things than to try to get a personality when you don't have one.

This is true, but IMHO Palin needs to stay out of the limelight to some extent while she catches up or she might use up her fifteen minutes with the general electorate.

[SmokingJoe]

“I believe that Sarah Palin’s problem is not that she is “miserably uninformed” but that she is perceived to be uninformed”

Perceived to be "uninformed" by the media, not by Republicans and conservatives, who are the ones that matter.
If anyone has any more doubts remaining about how Gov Palin energizes the base, they should have those doubts put to rest by the near hysteria that greeted her when she campaigned for Chambliss in the run off elections, and the subsequent massive 14% win by Chambliss, when the RCP average only had Chambliss ahead by 5%.
Remember, this was AFTER McCain had lost the elections. The fervor that Republicans have for her hasn't diminished in the slightest after the elections.

[Wonder Warthog]

I like Palin, too, but Jindal is simply a MUCH better qualified candidate. My preferred 2012 ticket is Jindal/Palin, which is the best combination of brains and charisma that the Republicans can possibly field.

[SmokingJoe]

“Somebody on TV the other night was saying about Palin that it's much easier to study for a few years and catch up on things “

You mean like Comrade Obama, who had spent just 153 days in the US Senate before runing for president did, right?
Exactly what did Obama know before he started running for president? Nothing!
This is a guy that was so clueless, he had to take an emergency trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe, just so he could appear to know anything at all about foreign policy, just a few months before the elections.
Gov Palin knows more about international relations(since she's had to deal with the Canadians), than Obama did when he started running to be president.

[SmokingJoe]

“I like Palin, too, but Jindal is simply a MUCH better qualified candidate”

Much more qualified on what exactly?
Exactly how long has Jindal been governor for?
What foreign policy experience has Jindal ever had?
What is his executive experience? Please enlighten me.

[nathanbedford]

As much as I agree with you about your assessment of Sarah Palin, I am afraid I must disagree with you about the state of play. We are two years away from the next election and there is no need now to mobilize the base. The need now is to come to Jesus, that is, to find out in our soul what it means to be a conservative. That is the first step. We would be proceeding wrongfooted if we set out looking for a savior. First we have to have a philosophy. I do agree that very likely the leader of the party will be the man (or in this case a woman) who can articulate a philosophy which can, Reagan -like, stitch together the disparate elements of the party, fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, national Defense conservatives, into a coherent fabric which will pull together instead of pulling apart as they are doing now. But, have a care, I do not mean that the spokesperson (I hate that politically correct term I meant to say and "spokesman") should be someone who appeals to my third of the conservative base. I want a leader who can represent all three legs of the conservative stool. Any fewer will condemn us to another electoral defeat.

In this context, I would prefer Sarah Palin because she has the makings of all three legs of the conservative stool in her biography if she can put away a regrettable tendency toward populism. But I am not going to anoint Palin, I want her to emerge from a Darwinian contest as the clear winner of the ideological consensus which moves the majority of Americans. The very worst scenario would be to impose someone, for example Sarah Palin, on New York's fiscal conservatives who will bolt because they feel she is too provincial. Let her win over the Peggy Noonan's and the William F. Buckley Jr.'s by getting out there and changing her image. If she cannot do so she must fall by the wayside. I am not going to can sacrifice the conservative movement to appease social conservatives.. We just did that for national defense Conservatives and it cost us the last two elections, it put us in the wilderness for perhaps a generation, and it may well have exposed the country to a Manchurian Marxist who will ultimately sabotage both the national Defense of the United States and Israel which were main motivations of the neocons in the first place.

George Bush came to us and said he was a "compassionate conservative." I did not know what the hell it meant, I have learned over eight years to my sorrow what it means. I do not want the party again to be led down a path by a piper who only shows us some part of his character. I want it committed conservative who will serve all three legs of the conservative movement. I want him tested and I want him proven. We only had two years to do it so we better get on with the job now so that when we need to motivate the base for the next election we will have a real base worth motivating.

[nathanbedford]

Please see my post number 18.

[SmokingJoe]

“We are two years away from the next election and there is no need now to mobilize the base”

Of course there is.
We just saw proof of the need to mobilize the base in the Georgia Senate elections, where Gov Palin energized the base and helped gain an extra 10% in votes for Chambliss, over what the polls had said.
With a hard line Stalinist and Marxist in the White House from January, this is exactly the time to mobilize conservatives. Last thing you want to do is wait till 2010 or 2012 before attempting to mobilize the base. That's what McCain did. He ignored the base for 4 years, then wanted to same base to vote for him this year. Of course that got him nowhere, and rightfully so,