Posted on 05/26/2007 4:10:29 PM PDT by Josh Painter
Tennessee political news blogger A.C. Kleinheider explains why it is a Big Deal that Tennessee congressman Marsha Blackburn has switched allegiance from Mitt Romney to the undeclared candidate Fred Thompson in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination:
"This is evidence of two things. One, Fred is definitely running. If there was absolutely any doubt in anyone’s mind about Fred’s intention it should be removed now. Marsha Blackburn got way out in front in supporting Mitt Romney for President the fact that she has flipped means Fred is in for sure."
"The fact that Blackburn has jumped ship means that Thompson is in and the Tennessee Republican Party is fully behind him. One can hardly blame Marsha for this. She is a Tennessee Republican politican. She couldn’t support Romney over Fred, it would be impossible even if she wanted to."
"What does this mean for Romney? Nothing good, that’s for sure. When Bill Frist decided not to run for President all his people, money folks and consultants, went up for grabs and grab Romney did. He came into Tennessee and poached quite heavily from the infrastructure of Bill Frist’s embryonic campaign. Now, all that support, all that fundraising, goes bye-bye."
"Romney did a lot of work it Tennessee and it is about to not only leave him but work against him. He is gonna take a hit far worse than the other candidates the day Fred gets in."
I said early on that the first and quickest casualty of Fred Thompson getting in the race would be Romney. Kleinhheider's talking about in Tennessee, of course, not nationally, but I predict what happens to Romney's campaign in Tennessee will soon happen in other states.
Romney's biggest asset was his position as the most conservative of the Big Three in the race, the most-conservative-candidate-who-could-win-in-November. That asset evaporates when Thompson declares his candidacy. Thompson is appealing to conservatives - especially social conservatives - and just as electable if not more so than Romney.
As for Blackburn, she is a bona fide hero to Tennessee conservatives, and a rising star nationally. Her decision to switch from Romney to Thompson will hurt Romney far beyond the borders of the Volunteer State.
This way overstates it.
Actually, the main casualty that I see is John McCain.
McCain was once the ‘straight talker’ and Fred Thompson was once seen as a McCain-supportive type of senator and in the same conservative maverick.
Since then McCain has crossed so many swords and burned so many bridges with various conservatives, the very word “conservative Mccain” is an oxymoron. Instead McCain is reduced to fighting for the moderate vote with Rudy. Now the GOP electorate gets that old, more likeable style of maverick - in Fred Thompson - and not the new-mcain, the sellout and grumpy old man with a short fuse and a hankering for amnesty.
Two weeks ago I said Rudy was toast. Now I am adding to it McCain. Both Rudy and McCain have a ceiling and are close to hitting it. Romney hasn’t hit it yet.
This hurts Romney on the right flank for sure, but helps Romney in that the ‘inevitability factor’ for Rudy is no completely demolished, and its now a 4 way free-for-all. Romney is left with considerable momentum and organization.
LET THE BEST CANDIDATE WIN.
“Thompson could deflate over time. Or even rather quickly.”
“Nice wishful thinking, but it won’t happen.”
I don’t consider it wishful thinking, but a cogent assessment of the possibilities.
Thompson imho throws open the race, but doesn’t close it. What if he jumps in, but runs a lousy campaign? So far as I can tell, only one GOP candidate is running a good campaign, and that is Romney.
For folks like me who were leaning Romney due to the “conservative-and-electable-enough” factor, it’s a reboot that could shake things up. Thompson may be better. But (see my previous post) Thompson is really the McCain-killer, and a good thing too; put that McCain campaign out of its misery, by giving us a maverick conservative to root for.
The challenge is that Thompson has the aura of the man with the fill-in-the-blanks set of beliefs, and his old senate votes (supportive open immigration and mccain-feingold, etc.) belies his current populism on that issue. And what about his cancer, or his suspiciously young wife (second wife)? Will that wear as badly as Rudy and Judith?
I’m not going to prejudge. It’s a good thing to have another marquee name in the race, but it’s far to early to assume he’ll run away with anything.
I’d leave open another possibility: Early primaries + multiple candidates in an open race could = convention decides the race!
“We need to recognize that Giuliani will almost certainly score a 30%-35% vote, no matter what. So we need to get serious about a candidate to make sure Rudi can’t slip between two or more conservative candidates and grab the nomination when he is the candidate that 65%-70% of the party rejects.”
Why do I feel like you and I are passengers on the Titanic and you are pointing out an iceberg, saying “You know what a hunk of ice like that could do to the hull of this ship?”
We need to recognize that the conservative movement is in deep doo-doo when half the senate GOP caucus can’t bring itself to support the Vitter amendment, which simple asked to strike manesty from the senate immigration bill.
We can’t even get together to unite against that, how can we unite to stop Rudy, especially in the most wide-open race since open primaries were in existence?
If Fred Thompson had joined the race three months ago before Mr. Romney had a chance to build support and organization, I would have agreed that a Thompson candidacy would have knocked out the Romney candidacy. Now that Mr. Romney is doing well among primary voters, a Thompson candidacy is more likely to damage other candidates. Mr. McCain may be the real first casualty because Fred Thompson has always been a prominent McCain supporter and they would likely be drawing support from similar lists of big donors.
To the extent that Mr. Romney was starting to become the frontrunner over Mr. Giuliani and Mr. McCain, the entry of Mr. Thompson into the race means that someone else may rise to the top tier of candidates and become the eventual nominee. However, there's a huge difference between being the eventual second-place finisher and being the "first and quickest casualty." Both Mr. Thompson and Mr. Romney have considerable strengths and are excellent candidates. Either of them could do a very good job as president. I've voted for Mr. Thompson once already in a senate race, but I still lean towards Mr. Romney in this primary (if Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore are no longer a viable candidates). Mr. Thompson's supporters hate to hear this fact, but the presidency is an executive job. Mr. Romney has more executive experience, and that experience is one factor to consider when trying to decide between two good men.
Bill
“If Thompson is strong enough to suck the life out of McCain, he’ll do the same to Romney, perhaps even more so.”
How? maybe because his personality and character are so appealing, etc.. I don’t know if you are being sarcastic but I suspect you are.
Put them both side by side any day and I have a pretty good idea of who people will find most appealing. Especially the soccer moms who seem to be the ones deciding elections these days.
The fact that has been overlooked here is the small matter of Money. Romney and to a lesser extent Rudy have built a warchest of tens of millions and are out there raising more and more every day. It’s no coincidence that Romney is beginning to rise in the polls just now when he is starting to spend some of that money in targeted ads. Fred hasn’t raised a dime and has been out of the fundraising circuit for years... I think once he gets in the race we will all be in for a lesson in realism about electoral politics in America.
“If Thompson is strong enough to suck the life out of McCain, he’ll do the same to Romney, perhaps even more so.”
Pay no attention to the Mitterites. They’re shaking in their boots about now because there’s no question anymore that Fred’s in.
Mitt can’t carry his own state(nor his recently adopted one) in the general election. That, as algore can attest to is a serious handicap.
Mitt should be sending feelers out about his next gig after his campaign fizzles out and dies. Maybe he can flip-flop back to a pro-abort “moderate” in time for the next MA senatorial election.
A New England RINO won’t get nominated by the Republican party. An authentic conservative will.
Willard Romney is better suited as a game show host.
IMHO, Fred.
read later
When is the last time a senator was elected president? I like Thompson, but he has a lot of votes to attack and has changed his positions over time also. To me, he represents more business as usual from DC. He is an insider.
Romney offers a fresh chance to make some changes.
Romney/Thompson
Romney's business background is impressive, but let's face it. The guy is nothing more than a moral Bill Clinton.
This has been explained on millions of other Thompson threads.
He has contractual obligations, and he intends to fulfill them.
I don't understand why FReepers can't take 5 minutes to do a search under Thompson and get the answers rather than having someone else explain it to them ("But where does Fred stand on the issues?")
Fred needs to p*** or get off the pot. I am tired of him playing footsy with us. Either get in now or stay out. We don’t have time to wait for a “Mr. Wonderful” to come in and save the GOP. The primaries are a few months away. We have to concentrate on the candidates willing to stick their necks out now and be fully vetted before the general election.
BTTT
Extreme,
They’re not lazy or stupid. They’re just playing games. They know Fred is in the race, and they fear the Fred - like the poster just below you. Anyone who backs one of the Rudy McRomneys is NOT a conservative, and they don’t want a real conservative in the race who might knock their guys out.
It's a brilliant strategy, watching the others squirm. Letting the base speculate, building support with real conservatives and reganesque democrats, who hate what the moonbat/socialist/wackjob party has become.
And we all know how we feel about the RINO party, with it's horn and head planted firmly up it's own @$$.
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