Bad News for Romney

Elephant Biz ^ | May 25, 2007 | Bill Hobbs

[Josh Painter]

Tennessee political news blogger A.C. Kleinheider explains why it is a Big Deal that Tennessee congressman Marsha Blackburn has switched allegiance from Mitt Romney to the undeclared candidate Fred Thompson in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination:

"This is evidence of two things. One, Fred is definitely running. If there was absolutely any doubt in anyone’s mind about Fred’s intention it should be removed now. Marsha Blackburn got way out in front in supporting Mitt Romney for President the fact that she has flipped means Fred is in for sure."

"The fact that Blackburn has jumped ship means that Thompson is in and the Tennessee Republican Party is fully behind him. One can hardly blame Marsha for this. She is a Tennessee Republican politican. She couldn’t support Romney over Fred, it would be impossible even if she wanted to."

"What does this mean for Romney? Nothing good, that’s for sure. When Bill Frist decided not to run for President all his people, money folks and consultants, went up for grabs and grab Romney did. He came into Tennessee and poached quite heavily from the infrastructure of Bill Frist’s embryonic campaign. Now, all that support, all that fundraising, goes bye-bye."

"Romney did a lot of work it Tennessee and it is about to not only leave him but work against him. He is gonna take a hit far worse than the other candidates the day Fred gets in."

I said early on that the first and quickest casualty of Fred Thompson getting in the race would be Romney. Kleinhheider's talking about in Tennessee, of course, not nationally, but I predict what happens to Romney's campaign in Tennessee will soon happen in other states.

Romney's biggest asset was his position as the most conservative of the Big Three in the race, the most-conservative-candidate-who-could-win-in-November. That asset evaporates when Thompson declares his candidacy. Thompson is appealing to conservatives - especially social conservatives - and just as electable if not more so than Romney.

As for Blackburn, she is a bona fide hero to Tennessee conservatives, and a rising star nationally. Her decision to switch from Romney to Thompson will hurt Romney far beyond the borders of the Volunteer State.

[Josh Painter]

Fredipedia v2.35: The Definitive Fred Thompson Quick Reference

[CheyennePress]

I like Thompson, but I doubt this sinks Romney. He’s by far the most talented candidate when it comes to debating and public speaking, and that includes Thompson, who isn’t so shabby himself.

It should get interesting.

[SE Mom]

I’ve read differing views on this early defection to our guy. Some see it as her bid to start becoming more of a national player- coat-tails and all..

Others seem to think she just thinks Fred’s a better candidate- and knows her switch will help his (non) campaign..

[Politicalmom]

PING!!

Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference

Please FReepmail jellybean if you want on/off this list. WARNING: This ping list is EXTREMELY active. .

[Rameumptom]

Since she and Fred are friends and share homestate it makes sense to support him. I'm fine with Fred getting in the race. The million dollar question is when. As Mitt says "Jump on in the water's fine." Previous article here Romney loses a key backer to Thompson

[Rameumptom]

Mitt ping

[Clintonfatigued]

I’m hoping that if Thompson runs, he and Romney have spirited exchanges, but don’t get negative or personal. A Thompson/Romney ticket is a very intriguing possibility, and it would bring a lot of strength to the GOP.

[George W. Bush]

Thompson could deflate over time. Or even rather quickly.

It really depends on Fred, how bad he wants it, how determined he is, whether his health and age are a factor (he does look a little frail the way McCain does).

Fred's later entry may cause him major problems.

I also think that it's more likely to hurt McCain than Romney.

[babygene]

Well, it’s clear to me that if Fred runs, (and I expect he will) ALL the other candidates will loose... Republican and Democrat

[Always Right]

He’s by far the most talented candidate when it comes to debating and public speaking, and that includes Thompson, who isn’t so shabby himself.

Fred connects with people so much better than Romney and Fred will be far more effective in debates.

[babygene]

“A Thompson/Romney ticket is a very intriguing possibility”

I think Watts or someone like Walter Williams would be a good choice.

[Always Right]

Thompson could deflate over time. Or even rather quickly.

Nice wishful thinking, but it won't happen.

[Always Right]

Well, it’s clear to me that if Fred runs, (and I expect he will) ALL the other candidates will loose... Republican and Democrat

Fred has the likability factor over all of them and that is what wins the swing vote. Rudy has it too, but his liberal positions will be too much to overcome in the primaries.

[George W. Bush]

Nice wishful thinking, but it won't happen.

As I've said many times, I'm interested in Fred running. We need the strongest electable conservative who isn't named Giuliani.

We've never seen Thompson in a national race. And while the Howard Baker political machine in TN is alive and well, it has never been tested nationally and produced a positive result. Make no mistake, the TN GOP elite has been hungry for decades to put a son of Tennessee in the White House.

I think a lot will depend on what the surviving GOP governors do and who party leaders support in the fall.

We need to recognize that Giuliani will almost certainly score a 30%-35% vote, no matter what. So we need to get serious about a candidate to make sure Rudi can't slip between two or more conservative candidates and grab the nomination when he is the candidate that 65%-70% of the party rejects.

[TexanSniper]

“the first and quickest casualty of Fred Thompson getting in the race would be Romney.”

Wishful thinking alert!

Blackburn has been a personal friend of Fred for decades. It’s no surprise that she would support him. It was a personal decision for her.

I wish Fred would just get into this race already. I don’t get this suspense thing he is doing. I don’t see any advantage in delaying his entry into the race. It’s just a waste of time.

[sageb1]

Pretty lady

http://blackburn.house.gov/

[restornu]

I like them both candidates so it should be interesting not boring..

And as far as congressman Marsha Blackburn switching allegiances from Mitt Romney to the undeclared candidate Fred Thompson, now that she knows for sure Thompson is running is the natural course of things would not exspect any thing different loyalty is a good thing!

[etradervic]

This is a non-story.

I heard that there are a few politicos in Massachusetts who are going to support Romney. I guess that must be devastating news for the Thompson Campaign. /s

[Goreknowshowtocheat]

I heard the same thing. Thompson is delaying because of all the Mass. guys in Romney’s tent. He is nail biting.

[TexanSniper]

yep, the real story here is why on earth was a congresswoman from Fred’s home state who has been his personal friend for decades even supporting Mitt Romney.

This is just a small hint of the uphill battle that he will have to go through because of his late entry. Wait till he gets to Iowa and new hampshire and finds that most party officials and grassroots activists there are already committed to another campaign. It will take a lot of arm twisting to get all those folks to switch allegiances like Blackburn did.