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The Iran War at the Crossroads
American Greatness ^ | 29 Jul. 2026 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 07/30/2026 4:37:56 AM PDT by MtnClimber

Iran’s rulers are not playing to win the war today—they are playing to survive long enough to fight another one tomorrow.

We are now in Stage III of the Iran War: the familiar monotony of bomb, talk, bomb.

It is now the liberal consensus that the war has failed, if not been won by Iran.

We could be entering the war’s final stage, marked by an effort to escalate decisively before disengaging.

We know the tired Iranian strategy by now. We might call it “theocratic rope-a-dope.” For the theocrats and their terrorist proxies, survival means outlasting Trump, waiting for the next cash-laden Democratic administration, and using “moderates” to play good cop while haggling away months.

The mullahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps feign indifference even as their half-century, half-trillion-dollar investments in what is now essentially a vaporized military-industrial-nuclear complex continue to be destroyed.

The war has finally revealed the full extent of Iran’s vast conventional arsenal, nuclear program, and missile and drone industry.

These munitions proved far more numerous and deadlier than experts had imagined. The regime had poured much of its GDP into conventional arms, missiles, drones, and its nuclear program in hopes of dominating the Gulf, holding Israel beneath a nuclear sword of Damocles, and eventually bringing European cities within range of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.

The Islamic government shows no real concern for the attendant suffering of its own 93 million people. In the theocrats’ view, it matters little whether 1,000 civilians die as collateral damage from allied bombing or 36,000 are murdered by their own government. All that concerns these corrupt grandees is preserving their own comfort amid the rubble.

The Iranian zealots are counting on the Trump administration to withdraw, thereby avoiding a two-year-long impeachment and lawfare circus while preserving the Republican House majority.

(Excerpt) Read more at amgreatness.com ...


TOPICS: Military/Veterans; Society
KEYWORDS: epicfury; hamas; hezbollah; iran; irgc; jewhatersonfr; joooooooooooooooooos; koranimals; mullahloversonfr; multiplenicks; trump; vdh; victordavishanson; waronterror; yemen
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To: Alberta's Child

Closing the Strait of Hormuz was always part of Iran’s plan. They are doing it on Trump’s timetable rather than their own. It is clear they were husbanding their missile and drone resources, even during the 12-day war in 2025, for some big offensive operation planned for the future. Closing the Strait and a nuclear breakout would be just part of this future operation.


21 posted on 07/30/2026 6:21:54 AM PDT by Chad_the_Impaler
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To: Alberta's Child

“The Strait of Hormuz was open before this stupid fiasco was started.”

Torpedoes have been around for over a century.

Anti-ship missiles have been around for decades.

Navies have had to deal with these threats for a long time.

As for drones, go outside and look at the birds.

Do you not think the US MIC complex could develop technology to blast them?

The Ukrainians are now attacking the warehouses of leading Russian companies.

Have the Ukrainians knocked every Russian refinery out of commission? No!

The Russians have made hitting a refinery a much tougher proposition.


22 posted on 07/30/2026 6:26:31 AM PDT by Brian Griffin (The data centers might be hunting down guns. Black tape device cameras and PC microphones.)
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To: Alberta's Child

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/1958-when-america-first-went-to-war-in-the-middle-east/

Fair point.


23 posted on 07/30/2026 6:38:31 AM PDT by yldstrk
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To: Alberta's Child

“Now draw up another list WITHOUT the incidents that wouldn’t have happened if the U.S. had just made the decision decades ago to stay the hell out of that dump.”

If women would stay at home or only travel outside with male relatives, they would be far safer.

If women hid their faces, they would be safer.


24 posted on 07/30/2026 6:39:32 AM PDT by Brian Griffin (The data centers might be hunting down guns. Black tape device cameras and PC microphones.)
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To: Alberta's Child

“building infrastructure”

A few days ago, I saw a picture of a large barracks in Jordan, quite heavily damaged.

Modern weapons are very accurate and very destructive.

I advocate dispersal and target size & cost reduction.


25 posted on 07/30/2026 6:47:40 AM PDT by Brian Griffin (The data centers might be hunting down guns. Black tape device cameras and PC microphones.)
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To: MtnClimber

Iran is Trump’s tar baby. China and Russia are Br’er Fox. In the woke version of the tale, Trump will be able to outsmart Russia and China but in the original version, Trump will meet his demise.


26 posted on 07/30/2026 6:51:35 AM PDT by Armscor38
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To: Brian Griffin

Excellent example of winning a war without ground troops. I stand corrected.


27 posted on 07/30/2026 7:06:42 AM PDT by suthener ( I do not like living under our homosexual, ghetto, feminist government.)
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To: Alberta's Child

“The Strait of Hormuz was open before this stupid fiasco was started.”

Good point. The war was started because Iran is/was believed to be developing a nuclear weapon. Then Iran caused shipping of petroleum through the Straits of Hormuz to basically stop.

I will say this much. Other Middle East countries should be waging this war.

Maybe an Iranian nuke launched into Israel will wake people up over there.


28 posted on 07/30/2026 7:09:46 AM PDT by cymbeline
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To: MtnClimber

VDH seems to have a keen understanding and his predictions are probably mostly accurate.


29 posted on 07/30/2026 7:11:08 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Gunslingr3

What people are missing is why Trump decided to be all in preemptively. It was partly the potential Iranian attack on Israel 5 years from now but mostly the planned Israeli one on Iran. That would have dragged us into a conflict with Iran within days.

There was some mention of this but was quickly quieted down.

And Trumps goal was similar to a preemptive explosive detonation, commonly referred to as a controlled explosion or controlled detonation, is the deliberate and timed detonation of an explosive device

This technique is primarily utilized by bomb disposal teams and military explosive ordnance disposal personnel to neutralize threats before they can detonate unexpectedly.


30 posted on 07/30/2026 7:19:08 AM PDT by MagillaX
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To: MtnClimber

I would suggest President Trump cut a deal with Putin on limiting Russian aid to the Iranians. We could offer pulling back on comparable Ukrainian assistance.


31 posted on 07/30/2026 7:25:23 AM PDT by MagillaX
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To: Gunslingr3

Trump started this war at Israel’s request without establishing public support, and critically without the authorization of CongressI

Opinions masquerading as fact


32 posted on 07/30/2026 7:36:03 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: MtnClimber
It is now the liberal consensus that the war has failed, if not been won by Iran.

As usual, the liberal media is wrong. The war is already won. Trump prevented the almost 100% chance of nuclear war and I thank him for it.

33 posted on 07/30/2026 7:41:57 AM PDT by libertylover (The HBM (Has Been Media) is almost all AGENDA-DRIVEN and HATE-DRIVEN, not-truth driven)
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To: Alberta's Child

God bless Israel and God bless the USA. Those opposed the war are choosing a side that is against civilization. There are only two sides. It’s a binary choice. Evil vs good.


34 posted on 07/30/2026 7:42:02 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: suthener
Just stating what I believe is a fact.

Good point. They may believe an internal uprising could finish the Job. We certainly have agents on the ground. Or Trump may be encouraging Turkey to do the job? It’s definitely interesting times to be alive
35 posted on 07/30/2026 7:54:31 AM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification;)
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To: central_va
Those opposed the war are choosing a side that is against civilization.

Let me guess ... this is a "civilizational war against Islam?" LMAO.


36 posted on 07/30/2026 8:05:45 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (If I leave here, it’s because I’m tired of arguing with geriatric parrots wearing MAGA hats.)
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To: Chad_the_Impaler
It is clear they were husbanding their missile and drone resources, even during the 12-day war in 2025, for some big offensive operation planned for the future. Closing the Strait and a nuclear breakout would be just part of this future operation.

Very interesting. It's also the kind of speculative nonsense I'd expect from some clown in the GWB administration.

37 posted on 07/30/2026 8:06:52 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (If I leave here, it’s because I’m tired of arguing with geriatric parrots wearing MAGA hats.)
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To: Brian Griffin
If women would stay at home or only travel outside with male relatives, they would be far safer. If women hid their faces, they would be safer.

If these women don't live in the U.S. and aren't U.S. citizens, nobody here has any reason to give two sh!ts about what they're facing.

38 posted on 07/30/2026 8:08:25 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (If I leave here, it’s because I’m tired of arguing with geriatric parrots wearing MAGA hats.)
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To: Alberta's Child

I’ve read your profile, you really hate this country , please go to the dem boards or buy a plane ticket somewhere else


39 posted on 07/30/2026 8:11:25 AM PDT by Robe
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To: MtnClimber

Homeland Iron Dome 🇺🇲📡 here. Stay 🏠 home from Everywhere 🌍

Be Venomous Hornets here 🇺🇲

📡


40 posted on 07/30/2026 8:11:38 AM PDT by Varsity Flight ( "War by 🙏 the prophesied set before you." ) I Timothy 1:18. Nazarite warriors. 10.5.6.5 These Days)
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