Posted on 03/31/2025 6:12:57 AM PDT by RandFan
@PeterSchiff
During the months leading up to the 2008 GFC, the government and mainstream financial media remained clueless about what was obviously coming. They are making the same mistake again.
Tariffs mean fewer goods will come into the country, and fewer dollars will go out. More money chasing fewer goods means higher domestic prices. This is an economic certainty. As import prices rise sharply, demand will increase for domestically produced goods, sending those prices higher too. Meanwhile, lower trade deficits will result in fewer dollars being recycled into U.S. bonds, sending long-term interest rates higher.
Higher consumer prices and long-term interest rates will combine to weaken the U.S. economy, increasing the size of federal budget deficits. Middle-class tax cuts will worsen the problem by not only adding to deficit spending but by directly fueling demand for a diminishing supply of goods.
The Fed will respond to this "unexpected" economic weakness with rate cuts, ignoring the surge in consumer prices as a transitory effect of tariffs. They will also incorrectly assume that lower inflation will be the silver lining to the recession cloud.
All of this will weaken the dollar, compounding the effects of tariffs by making import prices rise even higher. Meanwhile, a weaker dollar and larger budget deficits will put even more upward pressure on long-term interest rates, which the Fed will try to offset with a return to QE, throwing gasoline on an already burning inflation fire. This will not be 1970s-style stagflation. It will be something much worse.
Tariffs mean fewer goods will come into the country, and fewer dollars will go out. More money chasing fewer goods means higher domestic prices
we most likely will have more goods made in country but will take time. if tarrifs are put in place
and/or
we will sell more overseas if we get an even trading floor when they take their tarrifs away.
“Can you think of a single U.S.-made product or service that has gotten less expensive over time?”
That’s because of so many years of printing money faster than the corresponding increase in the value of the economy (goods and services). The FED doesn’t aim at 0% inflation, they aim at 2%. The law of supply and demand applies here too. Inflation would be more accurately described as a decrease in the value of our money, because of increasing the money supply when the value of the economy hasn’t demanded it.
Fewer goods coming into the country!!! Geewhiz...maybe we should start making our own “Goods” again.
Libertarians are true globalists and do not care about that at all.
Which lobby is jerking Rand Pauls chains?
For about 120 years we funded this country through tariffs. All the while built the biggest economic powerhouse the world has ever seen.
Yet here we are, people like Rand Paul complaining because we are about to follow the same path that made this country
So...which lobby is jerking Rand Pauls chains?
No Pete, more countries will bring their manufacturing here to the US to avoid the tariffs. Its already happening with some car companies. There will be a short period of pain while that happens.
Great point, but I’m talking even about rates of inflation relative to the overall rate of inflation. The highest inflation rates can be found in products/services that are most “captive” to U.S. sourcing. Health care and education are notorious in this regard.
Unrealistic, libertarian ideologues, that is.
We are at 72% industrial capacity, 40 million able-bodied Americans out of the job market, with surging domestic energy capacity, and terrifying levels of consumer and government debt.
reciprocal tariffs will open ports to american goods.
or manufacturing within the US.
or both.
t
Did you work for the Bushes? LOL.
When was the last time a company moved production to Mexico and advertised -
"Now made in Mexico!! We are slashing prices 10%!!"
Well, never.
Unrealistic, libertarian ideologue = Rand Paul.
Transitioning people from welfare to work would be huge. Also, sending someone with a degree in say, womyn’s studies, to an assembly line, rather than to the CIA would be huge.
Opening up forestry in the Pacific northwest would make a large contribution as well. Putting TESLA vandalizers in orange jumpsuits cleaning up litter on the side of the road would be a plus to society.
These considerations, and others, would mean more goods chasing dollars. Inflation is not a foregone conclusion.
Let’s not forget that we had a lot of inflation in the Biden years. Inflation is not desired. However, a double standard should not be accepted. AFAIC, if inflation with Trump as President is less than inflation with Biden as President, it’s a win.
RP is unfortunately what you get when you have a controlled libertarian.
To me Rand is to the right in kookiness as Bernie is to the left.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.