Posted on 11/06/2024 12:35:22 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Skewed polls and anonymous betting markets are building up Republicans’ expectations. Donald Trump could use that to challenge the result.
The torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for Donald J. Trump.
They stood out amid the hundreds of others indicating a dead heat in the presidential election. But they had something in common: They were commissioned by right-leaning groups with a vested interest in promoting Republican strength.
These surveys have had marginal, if any, impact on polling averages, which either do not include the partisan polls or give them little weight. Yet some argue that the real purpose of partisan polls, along with other expectation-setting metrics such as political betting markets, is directed at a different goal entirely: building a narrative of unstoppable momentum for Mr. Trump. The partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election and — perhaps more important — cementing the idea that the only way Mr. Trump can lose to Vice President Kamala Harris is if the election is rigged. Polls promising a Republican victory, the theory runs, could be held up as evidence of cheating if that victory does not come to pass.
“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” said Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. “Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.”
Last week, the right-wing influencer Ian Miles Cheong shared a survey with his 1.1 million followers on X. The forecast from a new polling company suggested, without sharing its methodology, that the former president would take 74.3 percent of the national vote — a landslide unprecedented in American history.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Schadenfreude is a dish best served cold.
Don’t worry tabloid NYT, Trump won’t challenge the results.
I knew two weeks ago when AZ/NC/NV/FL numbers started coming in for early voting. You can’t have that kind of activity among low-propensities coming out early in the R party and not have it translate to strong showout.
Mitchell ( forget first name) just on RAV stream counting coup for best polling, states swing states moved less toward Republicams (1%) than the rest of the country ( Red more red, blue less blue) by 8% ( I think)
Mitchell head pollster for Rasmussen
Only after living in a communist country for a couple years and being subjected to their media - did I finally understand how to really “read” the NY Times or Washington Post.
Its literally ALL narrative. They present the presently acceptable political belief of their masters/controllers
And if NY Times turns out to be absolutely wrong, it does not matter. Tomorrow will have a new political narrative and what was said last month or last year is gone into the memory hole
Orwell described it very well
No need to challenge.It was,as DJT hoped,too big to rig!
Dragging Liz Cheney around was a huge mistake.Kamala and Tim give off a weak vibe so parading around with a known warmonger. Is terrifying for military families. And we all know she has no foreign policy chops.
... at the moment DJT is ahead of KH with 2.5% of the popular vote. Doesn’t strike me as a landslide win. Demographics determine destiny.
I said it 2 weeks before the election:
Pollsters will NEVER show a republican leading by a wide margin in a Presidential election. Those goes doubly true for Trump.
They ALL know that they will never get their poll results published if they have results that is likely to demoralize democrat voters before the actual election.
Did he use only his fingers or did her insert his whole fist when we has pulling that out of his a$$? He was trying to have a post that he could later point back to as a “flex” or resume builder.
But in the last week a spate of screwy polls and other interference caused the no-tossup map to shift in Kamala's favor. In retrospect it is apparent the polling was more or less on target in the earlier phase, before a bunch of junk data was thrown in to the mix in an effort to corrupt the election.
I have to believe it was also incredibly demoralizing for a lot of traditional peacenik Democrats. I can picture them wringing their hands and quietly wailing, "Oh gawd, oh gawd, what have we become?" No surprise if many of these couldn't bring themselves to vote.
nobody believed me, that’s how i know that i’m right...
Your description of that dynamic is spot on, FRiend.
There is a certain NY and WA DC elite mentality. I have heard it described as “Group think” or thinking in a Bubble of people who reinforce each others bias until they convince themselves that they are right and everyone else outside of the bubble is wrong.
This NY Slime's article sure sounds like they are convincing themselves that they know best and all the other sources of information are biased and false.
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