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How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election
The New York Times ^ | Oct. 6, 2024 Updated 7:37 p.m. ET | Nate Cohn

Posted on 10/07/2024 9:48:30 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

Over the last month, one methodological decision seems to have produced two parallel universes of political polling.

In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.

In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.

This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.

Here’s how it works. First, the pollster asks respondents whether they voted for Joe Biden or Mr. Trump in the last election. Then they use a statistical technique called weighting, in which pollsters give more or less “weight” to respondents from different demographic groups, such that each group represents its actual share of the population. In this case, the pollster weights the number of Biden ’20 or Trump ’20 voters to match the outcome of the last election.

This approach had long been considered a mistake. For reasons we’ll explain, pollsters have avoided it over the years. But they increasingly do it today, partly as a way to try to make sure they have enough Trump supporters after high-profile polling misfires in 2016 and 2020. The choice has become an important fault line among pollsters in this election, and it helps explain the whiplash that poll watchers are experiencing from day to day.

Over the last month, about two-thirds of polls were weighted by recalled vote.

An impo

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Humor
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1 posted on 10/07/2024 9:48:30 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

My general read of the election started out with Trump probably losing.
Then moved to a toss up.
Then a belief Trump will win.

Now I’m back to “not sure” because some of these polls favor Harris. That ranges all the way to predictions of a Trump easy win.

The problem being, this isn’t your daddy’s electorate. They are close to turning this country into a California. Not quite but closer.

Which is why democrats can run such embarrassing candidates and campaigns.


2 posted on 10/07/2024 10:00:45 AM PDT by Williams (Let's Focus On Electing President Trump)
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To: Williams
It will be a bigger landslide for Trump than 2020 was.

Depends on if 2024 illegal alien votes can outdo the 2020 cheat-by-mail-in ballots as to who will be declared the 'winner.'

3 posted on 10/07/2024 10:15:52 AM PDT by HandBasketHell
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To: HandBasketHell
In AZ., I think we will have the numbers for Trump.

I will say, they have about every illegal in Maricopa County registered to vote. It's stunning.


4 posted on 10/07/2024 10:26:34 AM PDT by Tommy Revolts (,,)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Hit a paywall.

I will NEVER pay for the NY Times. Heck, they delivered it today instead of the Post and ruined my day. At least the Post on-line is free.


5 posted on 10/07/2024 10:42:57 AM PDT by dan on the right ( )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Why does the New York Times not mention AtlasIntel, Tralfalgar Group, or RasmussenReports polls? The New York Times seems to be saying all credible polls show Harris leading the national popular vote.


6 posted on 10/07/2024 10:46:29 AM PDT by convoter2016 ( )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

“All the news we fit to print.”


7 posted on 10/07/2024 10:57:38 AM PDT by Honorary Serb (Kosovo is Serbia! Free Srpska! Abolish ICTY!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

In a sense this is somewhat a fair article, because he is talking about one methodology, the recalled vote. However, there is a different universe being picked up out there in which I hope is more true than this methodology.


8 posted on 10/07/2024 12:18:34 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Lord Almighty, the NY Slimes has discovered "weighting":
Then they use a statistical technique called weighting, in which pollsters give more or less “weight” to respondents from different demographic groups, such that each group represents its actual share of the population.

9 posted on 10/07/2024 1:49:10 PM PDT by nicollo (Remember when we had to close tags?)
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: Williams
The problem being, this isn’t your daddy’s electorate. They are close to turning this country into a California. Not quite but closer.

This is not 1988. It is 2024.

So by 2036 or so, AOC will become President.

11 posted on 10/07/2024 4:35:24 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: dan on the right

PS - It would be a violation of the FR consent agreement to post a link to the bypassed version of an article, or to tell people how to do it in a thread. The only way they will know that I told you how to do it is if you tell them.


12 posted on 10/07/2024 4:40:50 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (The worst thing about censorship is █████ ██ ████ ████ ████ █ ███████ ████. FJB.)
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