Poland's trade with Muscovy was cut back in 2014. That initially hit the apple producers, but they found new markets.
as to Polish economic growth
Posted on 09/18/2024 9:44:20 PM PDT by ransomnote
According to Mercouris, illusions and fantasies about the war continue to circulate about it. And there are other fantasies connected to it, primarily held by people in Europe.One of the major misconceptions about the military side of the conflict is the discussion about a war conducted between two equivalent armies. That is not the case, it might have been true in some periods of the autumn and late summer of 2022, and maybe something people could believe in 2023. But it's not the case now.
Events proceed at a steadily accelerating pace - they point to a Ukrainian military collapse - perhaps in the next couple of months.
1:47
Financial side of the conflict.
Financial aid from various large Western donor countries (US, Germany, France Britain) is dwindling. The US Administration has been testing the idea in Congress of another big donation to Ukraine. The response was strongly negative from all sides this time.In Germany, the Finance Minister wants to reduce financial aid to Ukraine. Both Britain and France are in the middle of a financial crisis. In France there's also a political crisis following parliamentary elections. Committee of the French Parliament has authorized the initiation of impeachment proceedings against President Macron. Probably the first time an impeachment of the French President has been attempted since General De Gaulle, in the late 1950's.
Financial support from the West is slackening. Financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is also falling away. The IMF only continued funding Ukraine by changing its own rules. Changes to its happened in manner contrary to IMF rules for making such changes. Breaking IMF rules would be a more accurate way to describe it.
The IMF and the World bank have provided significant Finacial Aid to Ukraine and Mercouris thinks they are now increasingly nervous and embarrassed by the fact that they are heavily overly-invested and exposed in Ukraine, if things go wrong. They are becoming worried that if things go very wrong in Ukraine in the next two months, they will be facing difficult questions from participating countries like China, India and other countries in the global south.
The IMF is apparently making significant demands on Ukraine right now (taxes increased, spending reduced) and its even makng overtures to the Russians, saying it wants to be involved again in monitoring of the RUssian economy. Russians are expected to refuse this.
6:07As country to country Western aid to Ukraine dwindles, the West is increasingly talking about a major, massive loan to Ukraine. 50 Billion Dollars or (?) (ransomnote, not sure of his other comment about Euros here). He's not certain of the proposed amount. This loan is supposedly to be repaid by the interest on Russian assets mostly in Europe, which has been frozen.
This has always been a controversial issue - can the interest legally be used in this way? It's possible. There's been concern about legal action will be taken by Russia if this is attempted. Courts in Europe are expected to support such use of interest on Russian assets in Europe, but it's unknown how courts in Hong Kong, Singapore, and other international jurisdictions would agree with that.
Concern about Bond lenders (those who buy the bonds when a loan in the international market is made), governments or G7 float a loan on the int market, bonds would be released, the bonds would be sold, the proceeds by the lenders who bought these bonds would become the moaney that would make up the loan funds sent to Ukraine.
The G7 wanted to attract buyers for these bonds, which might be controversial (given source of funding to repay them), so the G7 got the EU states collectively to provide guarantees - if there was any problem with the payment from the interest of the frozen Russian assets, the European Union itself would pay the interest on the bonds. Over last few weeks this plan, with many legal concerns, is now in serious trouble.
This morning, an (misleading but factually correct) article in the Financial Times, "EU Plans to Raise up to 40 Billion in Loans For Ukraine, Without U.S."
https://www.ft.com/content/0684416f-58c6-4c76-ae54-140d34e30f67 (paywall)
The article is referring to 40 Billion in EUROS. The title doesn't make clear that this latest proposal (40 Billion EUROS in loans to Ukraine) is intended as an alternative to the prior plan to loan 50 Billion DOLLARS to be repaid by interest on frozen Russian assets guaranteed by the European Union. The article doesn't explain that potential legal problems with the first idea (interest on Russian assets) inspired the alternative idea (40 Billion in EUROS). The figure in the article Financial Times headline, 40 Billin EUROS, is misleading as well. It's more likely to be around 20 Billion EUROS, assuming this loan is agreed to.
The article title is followed by a 'clarifying' subtitle, which Mercouris feels actually furthers attempts to mislead, "Brussels Drafts Alternative Funding Solution..." The full subtitle, "Brussels Drafts Alternative Funding Solution to Circumvent a Hungary Veto on Extending Russian Assets Freeze." Textual innacuracy increases - attempt is put all the blame on Victor ORban, he's always made the villain. Orban objects to the indefinite freezing of the Russian assets. Up to now, Russian assets have been frozen 6 months. The EU wants to freeze them indefinitely, and schedule a review every 6 months. The vote must be unanimous - Mercouris says that there's no way the EU will ever agree collectively - so this Russian asset freeze would in practice be permanent. 14:00
That isn't the real problem; the problem is the legality of using the interest from these frozen Russian assets. Hungary is not the only country taking issue with this freeze; Slovakia and privately a number of other countries also have concerns.
The Financial Times article itself then becomes more clear/factual -"The EU is preparing to loan up to 40 Billion EUROS in new loans to Ukraine regardless of U.S. participation, after a G7 plan to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine faltered. The unilateral push comes from concern in Brussels that Hungary will prevent the block from delivering safeguards that the U.S. needs for it to participate in the frozen asset scheme, according to three people involved in the talks." It says Orban is set to delay the asset scheme until after the U.S. election.
So the alternative plan was not really proposed because of Hungary's objection to rules which would make the freezing of Russian assets permanent. 16:03 Other EU states are not willing to move forward with the idea of the EU states guaranteeing the bonds because they are worried about the legality of the whole scheme.
Now there's a frantic search for another solution. Brussels only has a few weeks to come up with an alternative - some powers to do so expire at the end of the year. 16:50 (Mercouris reads more of the article here). The proposed amount not really 40 Billin EUROS - the amount is actually unspecified. Later it's between 20 Billion and 40 Billion EUROS.
The real issue is a refusal for EU states to provide guarantees and the legal problems re interest on Russia's frozen assets. The loan is likely to be closer to 20 Billion EUROS.
The problem with the original scheme is not whether the U.S. wants to participate; the US would never have to repay the loan if it's based on interest on Russian assets, guaranteed by EU.
The proposal suggests that the current rolling 6 month freeze on Russian assets be lengthened to 36 months. Also an option, extending sanctions by 5 years - Mercouris has heard the real proposal is to make it permanent, and indefinite.
EU commission still supports the 50 Billion/Russian Assets scheme as Plan A, and EU officials say they need an alternative in case Orban's veto of the decision does push the deadline past the date of the US election. (ransomnote: Mercouris reads more of the details in the Financial Times article which I don't cover).
The 50 Billion/Russian assets plan would have the US and EU each shouldering 20 Billion (floated bonds) and remaining countries covering 10 Billion. The original plans looks increasingly shakey- Financial Times says it's 'faltering'. The likely resulting sum of 20 Billion EUROS would not be enough to cover Ukraine's deficit in 2025 which is est. to be approx. 40 Billion EUROS.
23:04 Ukrainians are starting to get trickles of money from the interest on Russia's frozen assets - Mercouris notes that is legally dubious. Russia will be litigating. It was a bad idea the EU never should have tried. They were pushed into it by Janet Yellen. Money will come - the EU is not going to allow Ukraine to fail over the next few weeks.
Mercouris notes Conor Gallagher's website NakedCapitalism.com (Mercouris says it's one of the best websites out there on financial geopolitical matters, a lot of unique information, Mercouris advises people follow it) Mercouris advises readers to read the original article(s) on the Naked Capitalism website, and not republished versions (often published without permission). Mercouris recommends Gallagher's article:
"The EU Retreats Further into a World of Self-Delusion"
September 15, 2024 by Conor Gallagher
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/the-eu-retreats-further-into-a-world-of-self-delusion.html27:48
Gallaghers artical remarks on Draghi's plan to rebuild the EU economically and points out that Draghi is missing the elephant in the room - the ongoing war and its impact on the energy sector. [ransomnote: Interesting discussion, I think it's worth reading Gallagher's article, but I won't detail it here, aside to note that it's a lively article detailing energy challenges facing the EU, and a rule of thumb mentioned: European companies face electricity prices 2- 3 times those faced in America for electricity, natural gas prices are 4 - 5 times more than Americans pay for natural gas.On the subject of the hardship's now faced by the EU since 2022 when Germany and the EU decided to switch off supplies of Russian gas, Ghallagher quotes Putin:
But as Russian President Vladimir Putin recently put it for the hundredth time at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok:
It is very strange, and I cannot get my head around it. They up and blew up the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. They blew up both Nord Stream 1 pipelines and one Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The second one is fully functional, though. What stops the German government from pressing the button, coming to terms with us and turning it on? How much is it? 25 billion cubic metres through one pipeline?…It was the Poles who shut down the Yamal-Western Europe pipeline. Now Ukraine is closing [transit through Ukraine], and the Nord Stream 2 route along the Baltic Sea bed is not turned on. Well, if they don’t want to, they don’t have to. It will be a loss for them. For us, there will be a certain reduction in revenues, but it’s no big deal. 38:00
Gallagher also talks about runaway military spending and other sources of problems now faced by those in Europe.
Mercouris introduces another article, this one by Simon Jenkins, columnist in The Guardian. Mercouris says Jenkins is the one permitted dissident on the topic of the war in Ukraine, and while is cautious not to stray too far from the official line, Jenkins sometimes says things the British have not heard or read anywhere else.
Jenkins says Zelensky is still an inspirational leader, and Putin is unstable and isolated. Mercouris notes that Jenkins' assertion that Putin is isolated is surprising and asks, "isolated in what way?" before pointing out that it's now just weeks ahead of the major BRICS summit, which Putin's going to chair. Mercouris says Simon Jenkins 'has to say that' (not stray too far from the official line) 42:48 Attendees of the BRICS conference include India, China and Brazil, among others. Mercouris says Jenkins makes very strong, good points about the folly of missile strikes within Russia."Keir Starmer’s missile bravado could jeopardise Nato’s careful balancing act in Ukraine" September 16, 2024 by Simon Jenkins.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/16/keir-starmer-nato-ukraine-british-long-range-missiles-russia
"Now he wants to use British missiles to attack military targets deep into Russian territory. Germany has refused similar requests. The US, whose intelligence is needed for targeting, also says Ukraine cannot use its missiles to strike Russia"
As an example of the times Jenkins sometimes says important things, that those in Britain never read or hear elsewhere, Mercouris read's more of Jenkins' article:"Nato at the moment is trapped. The economic war on Russia has been a disaster. It has sorely hurt western trade, sending energy and agricultural supply prices soaring. Sanctions have merely validated Putin’s claim that the war is the west against the east. They have freed him to strengthen Russia’s autocratic alliances around the world, and they have hugely increased its trade with Asia. By isolating Putin from contact with the west, sanctions have also kept him away from the negotiating back-channels and unofficial contacts that can be crucial in such crises."Mercouris believes Jenkins, is right about NATO and the EU; more so the EU as it represents the economic dimension in this conflict. Mercouris says that he and others keep saying the same things about the actions the EU is taking, but have not been heeded (it's like "talking into the wind"), because the EU is not pulling back, but instead keeps lending even more money to the Ukraine despite what Mercouris suspects are insurrmountable legal problems, even as the Ukraine is about to crash. 45:20
Mercouris says, "It's not enough that the EU has cut themselves off from their major energy supplier, and antagonized that energy supplier, probably forever. It's not enough that they've sent most of Europe's weapons to Ukraine, or at least a large proportion of them, where they have been lost. It's not enough that they are facing a military and geopolitical disaster on their eastern border. It's not enough that they've given already over 100 Billion Euros of funding to Ukraine, which they will never see repaid, they have to add on top of all of that 20 to 40 Billion Euros more. I am speechless with incredulity about this. There is a pig-headedness or bloody-mindedness to all of this that defies, for me, rational understanding."
(ransomnote, the last report I saw said the U.S. has given 189 Billion to Ukraine)
Mercouris notes that Simon Jenkins continues to call Putin unstable, and articles describe Putin as ultimately as irrational. Mercouris wonders (paraphrasing) How does the conduct of the EU leadership in the face of this crisis compare then? Western leaders want it their own way - they may say Putin is unbalanced, irrational, capable of any enormity, appaling things, has no regard for human life. On the other hand when we want to do something reckless like launching missiles into Russia, attacking Russia itself, suddenly western leadership and media portray Putin as rational, predictable, far too calculating and logical to do something reckless like nuclear war or war between Russia and the west, so Western leaders then reason Putin is bluffing. They want Putin rational when it suits them, and irrational when it suits them - they never worry that Putin cannot be both at the same time. 49:00
Mercouris says, European policy is, exactly as Simon Jenkin says, in a trap. It's bizarre that rather than look for ways out of the trap, the EU seems to want to get further in. There are prior instances of this happening in history, but Mercouris has never seen it to the same extent in his lifetime.
Battlefront developments.
There are rumors that Russia is planning to reactivate the Zaporozhnya front. The Ukrainians say there are 130,000 Russian forces commanded by General Tiplinski, one of Russia's best commanders, who is also commander of Russia's airborn forces. They are edging along the west bank of the Dnipo river. The Russians may be planning another offensive in this area. Others say it's the Ukrainians who are planning an offensive in this area and therefore the Russian moves are pre-emptive. Mercouris says the Ukrainian military has been "smashed to pieces everywhere along the front lines" and probably wouldn't want to attack again in the same territory, and go up against Tiplinski, where the Ukrainian military was massively defeated last year.Zelensky is said to have told the head of his military, Syrskyi that he must hold the front line while Zelensky heads to New York for the General Assembly session, where he intends to present his 'so-called' victory plan to western leaders. At present, Zelensky's plan is only 90% complete. 53:00 His general, Syrskyi, has responded by stripping all the front lines everywhere else to re-inforce those two places, where Russian breakthrough is considered most dangerous (Pokrovsk, Sumy & Kursk).
54:00 There are reports that Ukraine is moving troops from Kherson and Zaporozhnya to reinforce those two regions (Pokrovsk, Kursk/Sumy). This would look like an opportunity for Russia if true. Ukraine seems to be betting that the Russians won't cross the Dnipo river in the next two months.
Further westwards, Mercouris gives details on fighting in this region starting at 58:00 Russians control coal mine South Donbas #3, Russians are now in position to shell the last main road in use by the Ukrainians (to resupply troops in Vuhledar) in DONBAS, the Ukrainians are starting to partially evacuate Vuhledar. Mercouris says they should leave now - escape routes will soon become impossible. Escape routes will be muddy soon when rains begin in a few weeks. Russians pushing west to Konstantinovka (and other villages I can't spell). Vulhledar is facing the end game - it is lost. 1:04:00
Further North - Ukrainian troops are trapped in a coal mine/slag heap west of Ukrainsk. The Russians have surrounded them -there have been various attempts to break through, there are lots of films showing Ukrainians experiencing heavy losses trying to break through to free the troops trapped in the mine. Mercouris considers this another pointless effort by the Ukrainians - throwing away more troops trying to get their troops out of the mine, who are already lost. The humane and rational thing to do would be to allow these troops to surrender to the Russians. Surrendering would be to give up Ukrainsk. Once those troops surrender, then negotiate their release with the Russians through the various prisoner exchanges which regularly take place. Mercouris doesn't expect the Ukrainians to allow the trapped men to surrender. 1:06:00
(ransomnote: More discussion of Russian advances, naming villages here, but I don't understand the names or region so I will skip them)
According to TASS there's a logistical crisis for Ukraine in Pokrovsk because 3 bridges around Pokrovsk were destroyed, they were key strategic highways. Pokrovsk is cut off from supplies. The bridges were destroyed by arial bombs. This will impact additional villages.
Large areas of Toretsk (15% -20% of the metropolitan area) are under Russian control. Toretsk is being heavily bombed. 1:11:38 Mercouris believes a few more captured positions around Toretsk by the Russians will make defending against them all but impossible, and that the battle for Toretsk is likely closer to the end than some people realize.
(ransomnote: more advances in various villages discussed here)
The Russians are now right in the center of Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian flank defenses appear to be collapsing. (more details re geography and villages where Russians are advancing). IN general - on a map it looks like the Russians are forming an pincer. (more Russian advances, towns etc. All discussions are about Russian advances taking control piece at a time of Donbas, and Mercouris' statement that once these regions fall, the Ukrainians will lose them forever, and never come back to this region). 1:19:36
1:20:26
Kursk
Group of Forces North (Ukrainian) say that they've advanced 2 kilometers and are in control of another village, they say they remain on the offensive. Mercouris notes he never knows what is meant because the reports are vague. It looks like the Russians are advancing from the sides to create a pincer and link up to cut off the enclave at their most vulnerable point - the one major roadway which connects Sumy and Sudza which crosses the border, and was the road the Ukrainians advanced on when they began their operation.Mercouris's closing comments - American scholar Gordon Hahn wrote an excellent article, "The NATO Ukraine Defeat in Kursk" (September 14, 2024), which is on Hart's blogsite.
https://gordonhahn.com/2024/09/14/the-nato-ukraine-defeat-in-kursk-and-beyond/Hahn gives an overview of the entire Kursk Operation. Here's is an excerpt of the start of Hahn's article:
Contrary to the view of Beltway pundits regarding the sunny side or various alleged successes of Ukraine’s Kursk incursion (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/kursk-offensive-and-future-russia-ukraine-war-%C2%A0-212669), the Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s newest simulacra attack – substituting a fake reality for the real one – has led to yet another predictable catastrophe in the real world of war and politics. Zelenskiy’s gambit had no military logic behind it. Its essence was made up of a propagandistic/PR component and perhaps a terrorist element. It was a reckless, desperate last roll of the dice to overturn the playing board which never had a hope of succeeding. Not one of the goals stated by Ukrainian officials was achieved, nor was the unstated, potential goal of seizng the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant achieved. What was ‘achieved’ was a decimation of some of Ukraine’s best remaining men and materiel`.
Jumper “Russia has taken over 85% of the net-potential worth in Ukraine already, “
Did you make up that number (85%)?
“You are fixated on land.”
No it was a land grab first and foremost. Putin even said as much. Besides no phony annexation needed to do those things you mention.
As I’ve pointed out before - BRICS remains what it was when it started - an acronym created by Goldman Sachs for selling their international funds.
They have done nothing concrete. And no, India is not going to join China in a digital currency for trade
And if this was a grand campaign to attrit the UA to surrender, it has been a failure. 2.5 years and still fighting. If FR got a nickle everytime I read here that the end was near for the UA army, FR could skip a freepathon.
Poland's trade with Muscovy was cut back in 2014. That initially hit the apple producers, but they found new markets.
as to Polish economic growth
Biden isn’t running anything... And he’s a buffoon... But Putin is a maniacal pro-communist lunatic... We got rid of the Iron Curtain, and we’re going to stay rid of it.
China and India do not have to be in an alliance system to be in Brics and trade.
The US led or imposed economic order is based on alliances so I this is a new concept. Of course all the talk of NATO member for Korea, Japan, etc., is an example of alliance based economic order.
Brics is a new alternative to the system that’s existed since WWII.
I see your objection to Brics. However, China & *India will become trade partners because it is in their self-interest.
Brics is the future for everyone who is not a US Ally. The west has separated itself from most of the world.
*India can see that after Russia and China the US will come for them... in fact the coup last month was a message from the State Department’s sister agency to Modi after his Russian/Ukraine visits.
Those are the only arrows they have in their quivers.
Regards,
Bull. Just stop.
rxh4n1: I don’t have a problem with that either, but not when it turns into an ethnic bloodletting [...]
It is the Russians who have turned this into an "ethnic bloodletting."
Regards,
Ukraine is probably down to 400k soldiers at this point, and most of their combat effective are now engaged with no remaining reserves. It’s been a long slog, but the AFU is kaput. Dangerous but defeated for all intents and purposes.
Why is Zelinski screaming for negotiations this morning, and a freeze? It ain’t becasue Ukraine is doing okay.
The US is pivoting to Israel as I type. Zelinski is being repalced given all the former commanders popping up along with NEO-Cons in the news. Now Z-man is forced to talk.
His 24 Sept presentation to the UN will be meant with deaf ears. Long ago he and the US opted for a battlefield solution.
Russia is delivering on the battlefield solution.
Russia extends across 11 time zones. Ukraine has no intention to "box" Russia in.
Regards,
It is a shame the US has tried to create an Iron Curtain against Russia cutting them off from not only Europe, but the world. Only a Biden Obama braintrust could think in the box for America in this small way.
Yes I have read that Ukraine is down to old men and woman for about 2 years.
Putin created a curtain of his own making... As soon as they get rid of him, have actual free elections with real candidates offering views from both sides of the spectrum, then Russia will be better off.
Leave your war cheerleading in Toronto. And if I were you, I'd take a long, hard look at Justin Trudeau. He's your domestic threat, not Putin.
In the General/Chat forum, on a thread titled US/EU $50B Rus Asset Ukr Loan Plan Fails; Ukr Officers Flee Vuhledar; Rus Encircles Ukr Troops Kursk (My notes on 1 hr 30 min video), alexander_busek wrote: Armaments equivalent to 30 kilotons of conventional explosives were destroyed. Armaments which had been under the command of Autocrat Putin (friend of crazy North Korean dictators, Syrian dictators, Iranian mullahs, etc.) have been taken out of circulation. Armaments which one day could have been employed against Western troops (and civilians!) have been removed from the equation - and at no cost to Ukrainian lives.
I spent a lot of time viewing and recording my notes on the video thread I posted, so I viewed your comment as if it had SOMETHING to do with the actual thread content and in that context, a burning dump is irrelevent. I didn't realize you were simply distracting from the thread content "LOOK! SQUIRREL!" or in this case, "LOOK! BURNING AMMO DUMP!"
I don't happen to believe that Putin = Hitler, so I don't believe I should sigh with relief as if that ammo was going to be used against us.
A purely military installation has been destroyed - and you are quibbling, "expressing concern," casting aspersions, as well as distracting and diverting attention to unrelated matters.
HA! You accuse ME of distracting and diverting? I was still focusing on thread content and context, remarking on my legitimate concern for men trapped and not permitted to surrender, because I had just viewed the video and recorded my notes. My comment was about the thread topic. My 'concerns' were on the topic - yours were distraction/diversion. You snarked at me to get this conversation going, remember?
Ukraine has won a major victory today. Let us hope that many more days like this follow!
Ukraine has not won a major victory today, if by 'major' you mean that it could change the fact that Ukraine is losing the war. How many Ukrainian ammo dumps has Putin destroyed? Did anyone call those 'major victories' in Russia? The good thing is that it was a military asset without harm to civilians (if that part is true).
Regards,
While you were telling us how bad Putin is, Trudeau shoved the The Online Harms Act down your throat making it illegal to discuss many topics online.
Damn fool.
Putin is losing... It’s been over 2 years for his 2 week invasion, so he and you should be used to it by now.
Canada is losing and so is America, you damn fool.
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