Posted on 07/11/2024 6:53:00 PM PDT by Freeleesy
It seems mostly tied:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Our industry is oil and gas.
Even booze and gambling is a mixed bag these days.
Off the top of my head these are our billionaire donors-
Mercer, Adelson, Wynn, Schwartzmann, Peltz, Ackman, Mellon, Hamm and a few that I’m forgetting. It is not a large list.
You have a good point.
The majority on the left now intensely hates anyone and everyone on the right. They pretty much announce this regularly. They have no tolerance, and are led by dogmatic followers of marxist ideology, and perhaps some Islamic “ideology”, and other totalitarian principles, while throwing in full denial of reality itself on many issues.
It doesn't matter who runs on the right, the level of vitriol remains constant. Wasn't always so.
The left must cheat to win nationally. Primary reason they've been flooding the country with illegal aliens, encouraged and aided by other anti-American players. That fact is due to the reality of their ideology being rejected by the majority of American citizens. Their desperation has seriously compromised the security of our country.
If you're a rebel, you're pro-Trump.
Kanye West Backs Donald Trump For U.S. President Again: “It’s Trump All Day”
Apparently, Kayne West is on the Trump Train. But we know that guy is crazy. He's a billionaire.
Democrat support is extremely focused. The 7M extra votes for Biden over Trump in 2020 were 5M in Calif and 2M in NY.
It took that for Biden to get the battlegrounds by just a few 10s of thousands spread across the 6 or so states.
If you then get a national measure of “even” or “tied”, it’s a huge swing from 2020 and it will extend to the battlegrounds.
And . . . before the cheating and fraud screaming begins, note that with an increase in black votes, the people in the counting centers become less overwhelmingly pro Biden. Some will be pro Trump and will not corrupt their numbers.
Yep, when the states were kicking him out and McCain called it human **** fighting, President Trump hosted his events in NJ.
I was not surprised to see Don King support him too.
You’re point is excellent, in some ways we have become the counter culture-which is truly unbelievable.
The above post was supposed to be to you.
My reply to nwrep-sometimes it happens by mistake. lol
How about this for an experiment? You walk out in public and you mention "TRUMP". See how people react to you. They'll look at you like you're a Nazi.
So the American people will vote for Donald Trump in the privacy of their polling place on the Election Day. Basically, that's what happened in 2016. And we'll see another repeat in 2024. Except this time everyone knows that they have a dud in Joe Biden.
The majority on the left now intensely hates anyone and everyone on the right. They pretty much announce this regularly. They have no tolerance, and are led by dogmatic followers of marxist ideology, and perhaps some Islamic “ideology”, and other totalitarian principles, while throwing in full denial of reality itself on many issues.
It doesn’t matter who runs on the right, the level of vitriol remains constant. Wasn’t always so.
**************************
Hating Republicans is the glue that keeps the hodge podge democrat coalition together. This intense hatred went up vastly during the GW Bush Presidency and has grown into complete lunacy during the Trump Era.
These people hate us and will continue to “eat up” propaganda from whatever media outlet gives them their ‘fix.’
Seems like it started under the Bush Administration. Then it stopped for a while because we had two designated lovers (McCain and Romney). Now Trump. Truly next level.
You don't have to be a fan of Trump. But now you have to be on the Trump train. Where else will you go?
Polls that are PAID for are-— false as hell. There is no way this is “even”. Cash push poll taken from whom?
Public opinion and voting is constantly influenced by news coverage and events and by campaign advertising and campaign effort. As always, what people say they intend to do -- even if they think they mean it -- is at best an imperfect indicator of what they will actually do. And that includes how they will vote.
Public polls are mostly crap because, in the real world, good survey data is expensive and is not given away for free. Many public polls are cooked up to push a story by their sponsors. And, even when public polling is done honestly, it is always a snapshot of what the public was thinking in the past. Adding up public polls may help correct bias but rarely offers good insights as to what will happen on election day.
The valuable internal polls as they are called are kept private by political parties, PACs, candidates, and major interest groups. The best internal polls are expensive, accurate, and reliable. Internal polls are used to inform key campaign advisers and decision makers.
In addition to polls, there are also sophisticated models of public opinion and voting behavior based on massive historical data and sophisticated statistical analysis and algorithms. These models are also confidential and tend to be treated with near oracular powers of prophecy.
To figure out what is actually happening in a political campaign watch the political players and donors. Leading Democrats and the news media are in a condition of agitation and near panic because internal polls and political models show that Biden is likely to lose badly and take down many Democrats with him.
Meanwhile, also based in large part on internal polling and political models, Republicans are having trouble not being gloating and gleeful at Biden's collapse. Trump, sensing that he is closing in for the kill, is unusually disciplined. Fox News just produced a poll that made Biden look relatively good. Why? The longer he stays in, the better for Fox News and the GOP.
The 538 prediction is an attempt to combine polling with “fundamentals”. Being a hack lefty site (especially since Nate Silver left) the “fundamentals” according to them are a spectacular economy. As the election gets closer they will converge with the polling averages.
As others have pointed out I think the RCP average is the best indicator as I don’t think they put their thumb on the scales, they just report results.
A tie in the popular vote probably translates to a narrow Trump win in the electoral college. The current ~3% lead in the popular vote probably translates to a comfortable Trump win. If grows to 5-6% (doubtful in today’s political environment) it could be a pretty big win for Trump including states like Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, and maybe even New York.
It’s tied in Virginia. But still 45 percent want a sun-dried tomato brain to be President.
Polls are like statistics find a poll you like and run with it.
30-40% of the Democrats who strongly disapprove of Biden are certain not to vote. July polling.
Tornado,
Excellent news.
Thanks.
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