Posted on 11/06/2022 6:48:27 PM PST by Captain Peter Blood
Okay I have been trying to locate any Polling Data on the N.Y. 14th Congressional Race, AOC vs Tina Forte.
Have checked all polling websites and nothing.
Even checked Charlie Cook's website, he is usually very reliable, but he had no information at all. He had info on other N.Y. races but not that one.
So anyone who has anything please pass it along. This race is in the Bronx.
try fivethirtyeight.
There seem to be polls there for every CD.
Yes, would be good to see her booted from office. She’s not represented that district, has cost them Amazon jobs, and more. What an embarrassment.
Did and nothing. 538 does not do any actual polling, do statistical analysis of polling, but they had nothing on that race at all.
Try: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/
Look at NYS 3rd row from bottom right side.
Some vote estimate there that must come from some polling, at some time, somewhere. [AOC>70%]
This is a Biden +48 District.
No, a Republican won’t win here.
A little hidden but I saw the info, disappointing that the district would put her back in.
Thanks for the help.
538 is so far off it isn’t even funny
The Republican primary in NY-14 drew less than 2500 voters total. Dems canceled their primary (no opposition to AOC).
AOC got almost 3x the votes of her GOP-Conservative Party opponent in 2020, and that was a good showing for the GOP, getting more votes than Trump did there.
Nobody’s going to pay for polling there.
Well [Reagan pregnant pause here], this would be in interesting example of 538 prognostication to follow in the upcoming days.
The section of the CD in Queens is a mess. I lived there for thirty years and finally got out in 02. Old friends tell me it has gotten even worse since then. Can’t see any RAT losing in that place.
Most of those districts in NYC probably haven’t had Republican Congressmen since the Civil War.
I love Tina Forte. I’d love to see her win.
Unopposed?
Further to this though, any nominal republican opposition in these races amounts to vanity campaigns. Donations like yours aren't just wasted money, they are a form of legal money laundering because the donations go to living expenses, paying off relatives and business friends, and getting a public persona into the media so they can get TV commentator and paid speaker gigs where they peddle their personal story or uplifting schtick to the rubes.
Maybe that's too cynical, but really what is the difference between an honest 40 point loss where the loser actually believes they have a chance and a 40 point loss where the loser knows it from the start and just grabs as much money as possible?
I even messageded Tina to suggest she switch parties so she could challenge AOC in the primary. No change to any of her platform, just a D so she could go for the “anyone but AOC” vote.
AOC is their little “celebrity”, she’s not going anywhere.
I agree
This is one of the smartest, realistic takes that I’ve seen lately.
It may be sad, but it’s true. Which is in short supply of late.
Thanks.
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