[Captain Peter Blood]

I have given money and have supported Tina Forte for the last 18 months or so and I hope she has a chance of winning.

[Paladin2]

try fivethirtyeight.

There seem to be polls there for every CD.

[Reno89519]

Yes, would be good to see her booted from office. She’s not represented that district, has cost them Amazon jobs, and more. What an embarrassment.

[Dan in Wichita]

I saw Tina on one of the Fox prime time shows a few days ago.

She sounded determined and confident she will send AOC packing. If that happens, it will be an unbelievably huge night for the GOP.

[TexasGurl24]

This is a Biden +48 District.

No, a Republican won’t win here.

[jjotto]

The Republican primary in NY-14 drew less than 2500 voters total. Dems canceled their primary (no opposition to AOC).

AOC got almost 3x the votes of her GOP-Conservative Party opponent in 2020, and that was a good showing for the GOP, getting more votes than Trump did there.

Nobody’s going to pay for polling there.

[Roccus]

The section of the CD in Queens is a mess. I lived there for thirty years and finally got out in 02. Old friends tell me it has gotten even worse since then. Can’t see any RAT losing in that place.

[Newbomb Turk]

I love Tina Forte. I’d love to see her win.

[Jess Kitting]

Who is AOC running against?

Unopposed?

[jz638]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the only way AOC loses her job in the next dozen to twentyq years is if she wants to lose it. The district is as deep blue liberal as it gets, and she struck gold by living in a district that had an absentee rep who felt so safe that he didn't even bother campaigning in his primaries and she convinced 17,000 people to show up in the primary and vote for the pretty young latina bartender girl instead of the old white bald guy politician. Really a brilliant stroke of chutzpah to pull it off.

Further to this though, any nominal republican opposition in these races amounts to vanity campaigns. Donations like yours aren't just wasted money, they are a form of legal money laundering because the donations go to living expenses, paying off relatives and business friends, and getting a public persona into the media so they can get TV commentator and paid speaker gigs where they peddle their personal story or uplifting schtick to the rubes.

Maybe that's too cynical, but really what is the difference between an honest 40 point loss where the loser actually believes they have a chance and a 40 point loss where the loser knows it from the start and just grabs as much money as possible?

[Fireone]

AOC is their little “celebrity”, she’s not going anywhere.