Posted on 10/19/2022 11:08:15 PM PDT by dennisw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk-0qJXyido
Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe 123,200 views Oct 4, 2022
Anders Puck Nielsen 66K subscribers
Analysis of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. I use Kilcullen's theory about liminal warfare and prospect theory to analyse the operational design. This shows that Russia is the most likely suspect, because all other actors would have made different operational choices.
I then give some pretty depressing perspectives on how Russia might use hybrid warfare against Europe.
0:00 Intro 1:02 Model for hybrid warfare 1:51 Operational design of Nord Stream sabotage 3:05 Consequences of the attack 4:59 US, Poland and Ukraine 6:56 NGOs and climate activists 7:25 Russia 8:17 Who would take the risk? 8:42 Prospect theory 9:33 Russia likely to take risks 10:16 Blow up their own pipeline? 11:30 Hybrid war on Europe
“So part of it is, Russia’s ownership of the pipelines is largely a legally allowed legal fiction? Is that right?”
At one quick read, it seems that what part of NS2 that Russia owns....That it owns via loans it has taken out from German and European banks. Like a mortgage on a house.
No way are the Russskies still making these payments. So Russia did not blow up anything physical (NS2) that they partly owned outright. Instead, They blew up the billions that Russia owed European banks.
******* Must read Pat Fury’s long post again
I’m going to have to go through that post a few times to get it. LOL.
The russky super sub was spotted back in port after a few weeks missing from its home port. The sub has mini subs stored that can be deployed submerged. It’s not a far fetched toss to see the possibles of them doing the deed.
Russia owned 51% of the NS2 pipe
But going by what PF posted....The Russians didn’t blow anything (51%) they owned outright. Russia blew up a pipeline they were making mortgage payments on. To various Swiss and European banks.
And likely never made any payments on. That paying back their loans started the day NS2 was fully permitted (this never happened) and the glorious Rus Gaz was flowing into Germany
Bad Vlad might have war gamed this (NS2 destruction) out years ago. I think he did, along with hus gangsters.
You have heard the phrase “Jewish lightning”?
NS2 is a case of Roooskie lightning.
____________________
Calling Arson ‘Jewish Lightning’ Has an Ugly History - The Forward
https://forward.com/culture/372158/why-do-people...
May 18, 2017 · The Iowa Review published a short story titled “Jewish Lightning” by Earl Ganz in 1975; it includes a paragraph with a theory on Jews and fire: It’s …
Author: The Forward
Estimated Reading Time: 6 mins
“Spotted” by who?
Ukraine disinformationists and propagandists?
🇺🇸 “That is a lot of information which will take a few days for me to process it all.
So part of it is, Russia’s ownership of the pipelines is largely a legally allowed legal fiction? Is that right?
I did not present this well, and apologize.
You could easily take this Open Source info, and make it easier and more concise for the broader readers to follow.
Even your question proves this to me.
It looks like a clustered schematic, but it isn’t really.
The answer is yes, and yes!
At the end of the day, it is more than plausible strategic planning, the Russians just blew up/ended/cut off their fractional portion of financed loans, while under sanctions, and kicked the real NordStream loan owner/underwriters in the teeth.
What I am about to describe, you can make more simple as well.
⚔ Even better, Russia had already long been profitable on NS-1, so no financial loss to Russia there.
The explosions were planned and scheduled.
What is not known, is how long in advance.
Possibly 3 to 4 months (or more) in advance, which would be more than enough time to accumulate “short positions” (with solid market exit strategy), essentially scheduling a timed “Short Squeeze” in Natural Gas, and the energy markets, which did in fact cause a roughly 20% spike, which is absolutely huge profit!
Potentially worth significantly more in cash than the entire NS system costed in total.
All while simultaneously kicking the real EU underwriters in the face.
Hope they are not hard to follow, but there were several true beneficial angles for Russia, followed by a relatively easy nexus (easy dots).
I put that out from my small android with a shattered screen, so probably need an English translator to cipher and fix all the mistakes as well.
Additionally, there is more known already, but because of experience, it is necessary to wait for more declassed Open Source publishing.
For most, due to pride alone, it is very hard for to be wrong. Even worse when a publically wrong opinion or statement is religiously held, which anchors a larger agenda.
For a few however, they are wolves, deliberately misleading the “band wagon” with a destructive and controlling goal.
“Possibly 3 to 4 months (or more) in advance, which would be more than enough time to accumulate “short positions” (with solid market exit strategy), essentially scheduling a timed “Short Squeeze” in Natural Gas, and the energy markets, which did in fact cause a roughly 20% spike, which is absolutely huge profit!”
More like 7-8 years ago! That Putin and his “thinkers” plotted the Nord Stream destruction. As one possible outcome, for when Russia put the big gaz squeeze on hapless, cheap Rus gaz addicted Europeans. That they paid about $20/ per barrel oil for. Equivalent of course.
This is why the Rus always borrowed the money for their 51% ownership of NS2. They paid nothing into it. And they are no longer paying back the hapless Euro-banksters that made these loans.
The level of bribery in Germany was through the roof. What do you think Gerhard Schröder was for?
🚩 “...enough time to accumulate “short positions” (with solid market exit strategy), essentially scheduling a timed “Short Squeeze” in Natural Gas...”
SHOULD READ
“enough time to accumulate “LONG POSITIONS” (with solid market exit strategy), essentially scheduling a timed “Short Squeeze” in Natural Gas...”
Collectively, Russian entities comprise some of the largest energy market/commodity market movers in the world.
Strategically weighting their “long positions” for a known temporary “short squeeze” within what is cyclically an annual down trend is actually smart.
In this case evil, but strategically smart from an enemy perspective.
Not only do you wipe out your own direct Western pipeline loans, and the loan guarantors, you take many Billions in cash from them in the energy markets, and simultaneously temporarily spike the cost of your own exported (”laundered”) gas and oil, which has been sold at discount due to sanctions.
As well, you (Putin) have already known since at least early Summer, you are going for a million man draft by Fall, so you need to exercise (trigger) the pretext, to motivate your population, simultaneously reducing potential kickback from your own society.
Doesn’t hurt to strike fear into your enemies either, especially with today’s manufactured “snow flakes”, who possess neither morality or inner strength/guts.
Putin is truly a master, with long reliance on horrific pretext.
German Chancellor’s Schroder and Merkel were historically recruited by the East German KGB.
Merkel also met her second husband while she was in Russia, after having lived in East Germany for school.
Who else was at the top of the East German centeal KGB office...?
Hmmm...
Relax, it gets much much worse, with direct nexus between Supreme Soviet head Gorbachev and Putin, and to get this...
The entire Soviet derived global Communist strategy blueprint we have known of as AGW (aka Climate Change), including all “accords”, UN protocols, and specifically UN-A21 and UN-A30.
These were drafted by predominantly East German KGB teams, put out by Gorbachev’s Green Cross, and with key Western leftist help, rammed through the UN and now US Congress.
Pelosi, and the Clinton’s were some of those at “ground zero” from the US side, beginning no later than mid 1985.
German born Leninist Klause Schwab (who has been working with Putin for well over 30 years), and Soros are players, but small fry.
Yes, the docs with the nexus do exist, and in spades.
Long before he became the president of Russia, a KGB agent named Vladimir Putin spent five years in Dresden, East Germany. Here is what we know about this phase of Putin’s career.
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Dresden is where Poootin first met his future stooge Angela Merkel.... JOKING! I have no idea if they met there.
But one story I read is, that when both became nation’s leaders, that at one meeting Putin brought a nasty dog with him to scare and intimidate her. All part of Putin’s macho image making back then.... That Putin knew in advance that bribed and stupid Merkel feared dogs.
“Puck Anders Nielsen”
He says Roooskies did it. Did you see his Nord Stream video?
Nonsense again
Majority of Nordstream one is owned by Gazprom a Russian state petroleum company
All of Nordstream two is owned or controlled by Gazprom
Facts ignored here
The USA opposed both from jumpstreet
Nordstream 2 still has one line operable
It’s not certified and delivering because Germany refuses to after SMO
Pretty much
They view Russia as still soviet and Putin as an absolute dictator
Both wholly untrue
Russia is a largely capitalist oligarchy run by a strongman who faces actual elections and can be removed
Right now Putin still commands huge popular support as does this war in Russia
They see it as a war to free Russian ethnics in Donbass who’ve endured a heavy handed Ukraine since 2014 and actually even before that
A view I am sympathetic to having watching literally 100s of videos with the inhabitants and Putin press conferences where yes he’s asked repeatedly contentious questions
The further west one goes in Ukraine the less Russian ethnics and support for the Russian invasion
In Odessa for example support is maybe 60-70% unlike Donetsk where it’s 95%
One thing is people are afraid to speak lest ukranians come back
They fear the SBU and with good reason
Thanks for those objective, accurate comments.
not sure why these facts are being ignore here
Here is the case for Russia blowing up its own pipelines.
1-— Russia has put very little money into it. It has a 51% share of NS2 that was paid with borrowed money. Those payments to European banks are not being made anymore
2-— The video up above by Anders Puck Nielson makes many good points
3— Russian energy corps have a long history of speculating in the energy commodities markets. Even trying to move them. So before blowing it up, they place bets that natural gas markets will spike upwards. Betting particularly in the European gas markets.
4— See Patriot Fury posts for details on -—— Markets speculation by Russian Gazprom etc. and -— the money Russia borrowed from European banksters
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