Posted on 09/27/2022 7:35:40 AM PDT by Phoenix8
With six weeks to go until November’s elections, a new public opinion poll in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania indicates that Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is ahead of GOP nominee Mehmet Oz in the race for Senate, with Democratic state Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by double digits in the gubernatorial showdown.
Fetterman tops Oz, the cardiac surgeon and celebrity doctor, 51%-44% among those likely to vote in the general election, according to a Marist College Poll in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 19-22 and released on Tuesday. Among a wider pool of all registered voters, the survey indicates Fetterman with a 10-point 51%-41% lead, with 7% of those questioned undecided.
"What is particularly unusual in these numbers, is that, with still six weeks to go, most voters have already picked sides," Marist College institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff highlighted. "Few Keystone voters are undecided or say they support a candidate but might vote differently."
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
10-4!
No I am saying OZ is going to underperform a genric R.
Mastriano is not a Generic R, not even close.
The establishment GOP is not remotely supporting Mastriano, if he wins it will be in spite of the GOP. To win he has to beat the democrats and the establishment GOP.
Mastriano is not remotely an “generic” R candidate
I stand by my assessment. You are overestimating the ratio of rats IMHO. We shall see.
Trump was up around 700k election night, yes.
I Know very well how Trump performed and where he got his votes from... OZ is absolutely not Trump and will not get the turnout or support that Trump got.
He will not get the Democrat crossover votes Trump got, he will not get the disenfranchised votes that Trump got, and he very likely won’t even get the GOP votes that Trump got.
If Oz were running for some purple district out east near philly or jersey border he’d probably win comfortably... statewide? He’s absolutely off brand, and will likely underperform a generic R candidate in the T.
No one, and I mean, no one I talk to, anywhere in the parts of PA that GOP statewide has to win and win big to carry the state has any enthusiasm for this guy... basically its “hey, at least he’s not fetterman”.... he’s not going to get the turnout or support he needs to win statewide.
The only way OZ wins is if, the election is simply a referendum on Biden, and his damage to the D brand is so great that it destroys the brand entirely. Basically if the election dynamic is such that a Ham Sandwich would win as long as it has an R by its name, then OZ could win... otherwise, he won’t.
Not that it will make a difference, both of these candidates are terrible... its am embarrassment that either one of these turds will wind up in the Senate.
PA nor the USA will win with either of these guys.
This election is literally, “HEY, PA VOTERS, would you like your crap sandwich with or without corn?”
Fair enough. Oz is actually performing to typical R in that state. The last two senate candidates that opposed Casey lost by double digits and Oz is within the margin of error on all polls! Mastriano is lagging badly, he will perform well under typical R in the state. Face it, PA is too liberal for a MAGA. You will get Bushies like Specter, Santorum and Toomey. You want better and to have a real shot to get a MAGA senator then move to MS or AL. We can’t even get MAGA here in TX, sorry! I hate the way you try to basically cheerlead for Fetterman on here...this is too important for many of us!!!
You are welcome to your opinion, but your opinion is factually wrong.
The electorate makeup of PA is 39 R.
Trafalgar has been consistently sampling in the range of 43% R.
That around a 10% oversampling of Republicans.
You are welcome to your opinion, 43-39 = 4.... 4/39 is around 10%.
That’s math, and as much as you may not like it, that’s the facts.
Trump had a large war chest, you are forgetting that (and he still win the state by less votes than Toomey, a Bushie did). You cannot run a cheap campaign and win in PA, its purple thus all the races are competitive and tons of $$$ rollin on the Dem side always!!!
They are trying to poll LIKELY voters. If republicans are more motivated, you’ll see a disproportionate amount in their sample. If you poll by REGISTERED voters, then it should match registrations.
LIKELY voters doesn’t change your percentages.
If someone is determined to be an unlikely voter they are dropped from the poll.
Likely voters do not change the percentages, especially 10%..
This is the breakdown of WHO voted by part in 2020 in PA:
D 4002630
R 3462524
I 1300016
TOTAL 8765170
D -45.6
R - 39.4
I - 14.8
or as I have posted again and again... Almost exactly in line with registration percentages... D -46, R 39 and I 15
Tracking down likely voters is determining if the voter is LIKELY to vote, it doesn’t change the percentages that vote in relationship to registration numbers.. I don’t know who started that lie, but that’s an abject LIE.
Voter turnout by party mimics their registration percentages insanely closely, especially in large statewide races in all but the rarest of exceptions.
Polling likely voters, does NOT change the turnout of percentages of each, it just means they poll made efforts to weed out folks they determined were unlikely to vote. The goal should still, and always be that the polling sample by party be in line with the registration.
Trafalgars polls this cycle in PA have been grossly oversampling republicans and undersampling Independents... they have also consistently been oversampling women as well.
Numbers come directly from the PA Department of State:
“And I’ve seen interviews of her...she is a stupid person, like O’Donnell or Palin.”
***
You are wrong about Kathy.
Why bad rap the most accurate pollster we’ve seen over the last couple of cycles ?
And then explain to me how you KNOW he’s oversampling Rs ? You have no clue unless you compare to proven inaccurate polls.
The Trafalgar polls publish their internals.. and the electorate breakdown is public knowledge.. that’s how I know. I take a few minutes to actually do some fact checking rather than blindly parrot things.
The Trafalgar polling for PA has been oversampling republicans by about 10% all cycle…. And they have also been oversampling women as well.
You can see post 89 as an example.
I fully support Oz being the best option at this point.
Hello, newbie.
You don’t happen to work for the PA Democratic Committee, do you?
wow, you know alot about PA. Are you working for the republican candidates, donating, manning phone banks, volunteering for precinct positions. If you’re not, then please don’t waste time and space with words. And don’t lecture people who are working to bring about change and not lecturing from the sidelines. If you’re not a RINO, you should be ...
” if the voter is LIKELY to vote, it doesn’t change the percentages that vote in relationship to registration numbers”
OF COURSE IT DOES! If Republicans are more likely to come out to vote than Democrats, you need to sample a higher percentage of them compared to registration. That is what defines their greater enthusiasm.
Suppose you have 50:50 split between Republican and Democrat, but Republicans are more enthusiastic. The people who then CAST VOTES will be maybe 53:47 Republican to Democrat.
This is right. Shapiro is a criminal and PA voters are screwed. There is a horrific poetry in Mastriano losing in another rigged election.
They have it down now - prepare the public with rigged polls and then rig the election as the polls predict.
1984 here we come
Faux News - any question?
I’m sure you are technically right but Trump actually won PA so your 10% is not a reliable Dem voting block.
No it doesn’t, see post 89.
Your showing utter ignorance with this post.
The turnout in large elections does not change beyond the voter registration numbers... “enthusiasm” does not change turnout by 10% in a statewide race in a state.
In a small, local election with a small voter base, you can see a few percentage points variation for registration numbers, in large scale races, in all but the rarest of exceptions the electorate turnout mirrors the registration numbers with a deviation of maybe a point at most.
Need to stop making things up, or swallowing lies. Because it’s just not true.
1% is a significant amount when talking about an electorate base of 8 million voters... but trying to argue 3-4% swings in a statewide election of a populace state is anjectly false.
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