Trick question. Even though the expectation value of the right-hand button is 50 times that of the left hand, half the time you get nothing. But with the right hand button -- almost everyone would see a large, immediate leap in their lifestyle. So while it's trying to act like the marshmallow experiment, it's not. The guaranteed payoff is much larger than a marshmallow. The deferred choice doesn't always pay off. The correct answer is "both". (Kobayashi Maru, break the rules. 😉)
Given my present situation, the red button is my choice. it would make my retirement considerations a lot easier. 20 years ago, the green button. If the 50% chance did not go my way, I’d be out nothing but the time it took to press the green button.
thanks. Not knowing the genesis of the meme...
The 50% chance of 100 million everyone could get nothing.
Everyone takes the million, all see an increase in lifestyle?
Statistical payoff of the green button is $50M, so From a purely mathematical/statistical standpoint the answer would be the green button.
However, then the worth of wisdom over intelligence starts to shine through: “A bird in hand, is worth two in the bush.” So I’d take the $1M
The red button, without hesitation. I am not a gambler.
trick answer - we can only press one button, but it doesn’t say how many times! I’m smashing that green button until it spits out my cool hundred million!
If we all get to press a button then the obvious solution is to make a pact to divide the spoils and all hit the button on the right.