Statistical payoff of the green button is $50M, so From a purely mathematical/statistical standpoint the answer would be the green button.
However, then the worth of wisdom over intelligence starts to shine through: “A bird in hand, is worth two in the bush.” So I’d take the $1M
“ However, then the worth of wisdom over intelligence starts to shine through: “A bird in hand, is worth two in the bush.” So I’d take the $1M”
I have a wife and two daughters. If everyone was allowed a turn, the odds are that we would win $200M. Highly unlikely we would all come up empty. In fact, a group of 100 people could each get $1M by choosing red, or roll the dice on green with the odds greatly in their favor of getting much more than that. Only 1 green win out of 100 tries would be equal to everyone choosing red. Two green wins doubles it.
If it were just my wife and I, the first one should pick green, and the second could grab the guaranteed win if the first lost.
“However, then the worth of wisdom over intelligence starts to shine through: “A bird in hand, is worth two in the bush.” So I’d take the $1M”
This “test” actually shows the (loosely-termed) “greed” or “risk tolerance” of an individual. Is $1 million enough or would you bet 1 million to take a chance on 100 million? Then, if you won the 100 mil, would that be enough, or would you begin to want more?
No judgment on anyone, regardless what they’d choose. This is just a comment on a social experiment. If everyone was like me, this would be a boring world indeed.
Me, I’d be happy with the 1 mil.