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Influence of the Peltzman effect on the recurrent COVID-19 waves in Europe (are the vaxxed feeling 'free' and fueling infection via risky behavior?)
Postgraduate Medical Journal ^ | April 29, 2021 | Kumar Jain, Raju Vaishya, Rajesh Botchu, Pranav Ish, Karthikeyan P Iyengar

Posted on 07/24/2021 8:26:16 AM PDT by DoodleBob

The Peltzman effect is named after Sam Peltzman, professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. It describes the concept of ‘Risk Compensation’...that people become more careful where they sense greater risk and lesser careful if they feel more protected....He proposed that though people felt safer driving with a seat belt, it probably led to a phenomenon of driving with less attentiveness or higher speed causing an increased risk of run-off-road crashes or similar accidents.

...

COVID-19 vaccination triggering Peltzman effect—An analysis of Peltzman effect reveals four main factors contributing to risk compensation, all of which appear to be present in the current COVID-19 pandemic....Risk compensation is more likely to occur if people have a ‘motivation’ to take on a risky behaviour...The final factor, the overall effectiveness of the intervention, in this case of the COVID-19 vaccine, is being increasingly recognised worldwide. This is highly desirable, increasing the likelihood of vaccine-acquired ‘herd immunity’. However, for the Peltzman effect, this high efficacy is likely to reduce adherence to other safety precautions. Vaccination drives in most European countries started in late December 2020, after which the rise of cases was seen. Thus, people’s complacency and a false sense of increased security after vaccination may have been the possible reasons for people to abandon protective and preventive behavioural strategies.

(Excerpt) Read more at pmj.bmj.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Society
KEYWORDS: covid19; peltzmaneffect; vaccines
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To: DoodleBob
Your analogy to systematic risk in finance is spot-on.

We need to learn to deal with the fact that our neighbors will engage in "risky behavior" and our job is to manage our own lives and MYOB.

And that is where we diverge from the leftists and progs. There is NOTHING in your life that they don't want to control to the nth degree.

21 posted on 07/24/2021 11:05:56 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Criminal democrats kill babies. Do you think anything else is a problem for them?” ~ joma89)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

Thank you for your post. It counters the Agendanistas who never seem to tire of producing their falsehoods.


22 posted on 07/24/2021 11:35:23 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: Bubba_Leroy

“ There are some people who, after getting vaccinated, feel free to pack themselves into a cross-country party plane without wearing masks.”
***********************************************************************
I kinda wish these nitwits actually wore their useless masks on that non-commercial plane. It would have proven that these non-N95 masks are close to worthless as they still would have ended up “testing positive”, IMHO, after hours spent in that enclose air cabin with someone who was carrying the virus. That plane does not have the very robust air cleansing/sterilization systems that commercial airplanes have. The resulting “testing positive” cases would have demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the masks and served as ammunition for ending MANDATED MASKS in airports and on commercial airliners. Sometime someone will have to have the courage to end these counterproductive mask mandates!


23 posted on 07/24/2021 12:12:12 PM PDT by House Atreides
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To: DoodleBob; Jane Long; cpdiii; Grampa Dave; metmom; mewzilla
This isn't to say we should go back to mandates. But it DOES suggest that you can't blame just one class of people.

Exactly...sort of: I don't blame any class of people for anything except emotional fear reactions rather than using the gelatinous tissue between their ears.

Mandates were a fear reaction intended to control not the virus, but people.

I & others have said since last April that had this just been left to nature and we only protected/isolated the vulnerable, this would have been over by last Fall.

But OHHHH NO: There are profits to be made and power grabs to be had, so this 'virus crisis' must be extended as long as possible.

The proper behavior is just that: TO DRIVE FASTER, i.e., to act normal and spread germs just as before.

If you are vulnerable, STAY THE HELL HOME! Not without consequences itself, but with significantly reduced risk until such a time that a majority of the population has been fully exposed to these viruses (yes, you read that correctly and I stand by it).

The public health consequences of a 2nd extended period of isolation will result in a wave of sickness & death the likes of which the human race hasn't seen since the Black Death.

The human species has survived through a combination of factors, merely one of which is the sharing of pathogens ubiquitous in our environment to maintain a strong immune system; the faster everyone is back to normal, the sooner the public health pendulum will swing back to 'strong'.

Until then, every month of isolation is traded for a percentage of higher susceptibility to illness (even me, in spite of the fact that I haven't changed ANY behavior since my 72-hour virus, due solely to others' hypochondria).

24 posted on 07/24/2021 1:53:39 PM PDT by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: DoodleBob; Jane Long; ransomnote

Maybe it’s not even Covid, but misdiagnosed.

I suppose it is possible that some doctors somewhere just might have made a mistake in diagnosis.

Or maybe the test results were off.

Cause really, who ever had fa doctor making a mistake before? Right?


25 posted on 07/24/2021 2:06:34 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith…)
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To: House Atreides
I kinda wish these nitwits actually wore their useless masks on that non-commercial plane. It would have proven that these non-N95 masks are close to worthless as they still would have ended up “testing positive”, IMHO, after hours spent in that enclose air cabin with someone who was carrying the virus.

True, but you have to love the optics of their breathtaking hypocrisy.

"Masks are for the little people stuck on commercial airlines. We didn't have to wear masks, because privately chartered cross-country party flights are exempt."

26 posted on 07/24/2021 2:55:16 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Dementia Joe is Not My President!)
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