Posted on 09/24/2020 10:01:41 AM PDT by Conserv
... and it's a University poll(Christopher Newport).
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
In 2016, the fed employees and hangers on who make up a majority of the population in the northern counties were excited about Hillary and four years of establishment tranquility and success. How many of them are equally excited about Dementia Joe and the Kamala the self-serving wildcard, especially after a few months of being locked at home and terrified that antifa is going to firebomb their favorite bistro?
On the flip side, Conservatives have to be fired up to send a message to their governor and statehouse after the anti-gun and other liberal shenanigans they pulled in the past few years.
It may be an uphill battle because of registered voter numbers, but if Trump doesn’t at least make a strong play for Virginia, he’d be making a mistake.
And ABC is showing Trump +1 in Arizona. There hasn’t been a poll posted to RCP for NM since June. And for Nevada, NY Times posted one earlier this month showing Biden +4 with the last one before that all the way back in January showing Biden at +8. RCP really should do a weighted time average of spread to be more accurate. But, with at least 3% estimated as Trump supporters who won’t self-identify, this shows that NV is basically tied up as well or close to.
Trump also has everything west of Richmond and the swamp in Northern VA more than 100 counties (Charlottesville, invaded by rich techs and hedge fund types the exception) that rose up against our Klan regalia wearing governor who tried to impose gun restrictions. If they can turnout en masse, Trump can still overcome the government employee warrens of Northern VA.
Could be a B.S. rope-a-dope poll trying to bait Trump into wasting time and resources there.
That's exactly what was being said four years ago about PA.
"Fools Gold", we were told. Many here scolded Trump for wasting his time and resources with PA.
Trump is having a rally in Newport News VA tomorrow.
If he’s going to VA it must be within possible reach.
Biden is also below 50%.
But it’s northern Virginia that has been coming through in the end for the Dems in the last several elections...counties that are deep blue that not too long ago used to actually be red counties. Even Dole carried those counties. The growth of the Federal bureaucracy helped to flip them in a huge way.
Could be a B.S. rope-a-dope poll trying to bait Trump into wasting time and resources there.
Could be the opposite (Hillary was projected to win by a lot more than she did), if he can pull it close, it will make them spend money in a state they are supposed to win. The more he divides Biden’s cash the less he has to spend on contested states.
From what I’ve read, Biden has no presence in Virginia. If that is not the case please Freepmail me the facts that say otherwise.
I would not worry about it. I strongly doubt the Trump campaign allocates resources based on anything other than their own internal polling.
Forget it, Jake, it’s Virginia.
Rallies are cheap and actually are a net gain on money. Since Joe’s not holding rallies he has to spend on TV. I hope Trump has a few more rallies in VA.
As we get closer to election, the suppression polls have a tendency to narrow closer to reality so they are not completely discredited when their disfavored candidate comes close or wins the election. Last election and this election is harder for them because of the size of the “shy” vote which is unique to a Trump campaign
It may be a bit closer because the lower counties will come out strong after the 2A crap. But they won’t be able to overcome the NoVA government & immigrant onslaught.
I was in Florida this weekend with friends from Virginia - they were depressed over all of the new comers who have moved into Northern Virginia , DC and have changed the State. They would have been happy with the 5% number.
One of reasons for rally is SE VA is because its the media market for NE NC
RCP isn't owned by the DNC, Bevan and the site are generally considered right-leaning if anything, and they don't conduct polls.
Otherwise you nailed it.
For all her weakness as a candidate, Hillary was a far better campaigner than Biden. I don't think that VA flips but it is not impossible.
BREAKING: Trump slightly ahead in Michigan (Trafalgar Group)
Trump 46.7%
Biden 46.0
Jorgensen 2.1
Undecided 3.2
You cannot average percents. RCP average is worthless.
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