Posted on 05/04/2020 5:16:25 AM PDT by impimp
It’s just the flu, bro.
Some people are still saying that the Wuhan Flu isn’t just the flu. It is just the flu, bro. Normally the flu causes 10s of thousands of deaths each winter. Now some Fear-mongers are saying that historically the flu deaths have been exaggerated by the CDC, which therefore makes the 60k (exaggerated, but nonetheless) of Wuhan deaths much worse than the flu. The reality is that there has always been a seasonality to deaths with over a 100k of people in the USA dying in the winter versus the summer (about 10%-15% more deaths in the winter than the summer). A large part of that is due to the flu. The excess deaths (deaths beyond the historical average) we see over the past few weeks represent a small fraction of the 100k of excess deaths that we see in the winter. Based on excess deaths one could say that this is not worse than any flu and perhaps much less than the flu.
Although it is helpful and true to equate CV with the flu or minimize it with respect to the flu, I fear that in the future that we will have created a bad litmus test. Future lawmakers will see models for future pandemics that will say that some virus is going to be much worse than the flu so NOW we can reimpose draconian lockdowns and strip our freedoms from us. Some of these politicians may concede that maybe it was too strict with the Wuhan Flu but this time it would be really justified.
Not sure how many Flubros agree with this because this is beyond the scope of the criteria to be a Flubro or Flubra but...I don’t want some far in the future virus outbreak, that might actually be worse than the flu, to ever be used to justify a lockdown of healthy free citizens. I mean even with a really bad hypothetical virus (one that, unlike CV, might actually kill little children) - the policy should never be to strip away our freedoms and force healthy people to be locked down. This notion that locking down healthy people is an acceptable public policy needs to be permanently killed.
Quite the opposite, to break the lockdowns. Vigilance committees, contrary to the popular belief, were very rare in the Old West. But they became necessary when local governments became corrupt, and the electoral system along with them. That is to say, the machine controlled the elections, so there was no hope in electing honest people.
In some localities, were are at that point, IMHO.
I heard a commercial on my radio a couple days ago starting with several different characters gleefully stating that they were “staying safe at home” followed by “If you see something, say something,” and “Notify the authorities if you see something that disturbs you.”
I recall Big Media did thei best to avoid W’s see something say something after 9/11, but it’s important now.
Me either. My dad was a life-long smoker and died in January from COPD and pneumonia. Had he lived until now and passed, I would venture to say he would have made the telethon tote board.
I responded to a typist at the local fox new outlet about an article she published last week. What she wrote was basically an extended obituary of a local man who died with cv. I asked her if she planned on doing such writeups for all deaths and never heard back. Wonder why??
This is exactly where I am - we've basically jettisoned the Constitution in favor of imprisoning healthy people, and destroying their means of earning an income. And we've attempted to replace those earnings with the printing press, spewing out fiat money to keep food on their tables. The government has drastically overstepped its bounds, especially in some of the leftist states.
The left and the media (am I being redundant here?) have invoked an unnecessary fear in people, and have shown that they are perfectly willing to sacrifice the entire country to get their hands on power over the people. They are the enemy within, and we are seeing that unfold before our very eyes.
“A large part of that is due to the flu. The excess deaths (deaths beyond the historical average) we see over the past few weeks represent a small fraction of the 100k of excess deaths that we see in the winter. Based on excess deaths one could say that this is not worse than any flu and perhaps much less than the flu. “
There is something very wrong with posting false information, based on ludicrous rambling mental gyrations, for 46 days in a row. We have to ask - what is the motivation? Too much meth? Binge drinking? Your theories never contain any links to actual data. “one could say” monkeys will fly out of my butt, “ based on excess deaths”. The point of SeekandFind, Impimp, Gas_dr and SanchoP is not to communicate information. It is to spread propaganda for some ulterior motive. The objective of these “people” who may actually be 1 person with different FR screen names, is simply to promote false conspiracy theories. Why don’t you talk about UFOs or the grassy knoll instead because your “flu” nonsense is getting worse each day. It is embarrassing drivel. Stop it.
The Covid19 infection fatality rate is at least 1.03% in NYC, calculated as follows
NYC has 18,231 Covid deaths already which is .22% of the population of 8,400,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assuming every single person in NYC is infected.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
The recently completed study of 3,000 New Yorkers found an infection rate of 21% in New York City. Therefore the total infected population of New York City is .21 * 8,400,000 = 1,764,000. This includes those infected but who show no symptoms.
https://www.amny.com/coronavirus/latest-antibody-study-report-shows-up-to-20-of-nyc-residents-had-covid-19/
Therefore the infection fatality rate for Covid19, based on over 18,231 fatalities, is 18,231 / 1,764,000 = 1.03%
The Santa Clara study was based on testing a population which had only a 1.5% infection rate, so false positives from the test could have made 15 times larger effect on the estimate of those infected.
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator in that calculation (see CDC link below). It is estimated (see nhs.uk link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 therefore 36 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t at least 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-many-people-already-have-covid-19/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/21/revealing-chinese-virus-excess-death-graphs-coronavirus/
“: Future lawmakers will see models for future pandemics that will say that some virus is going to be much worse than the flu so NOW we can reimpose draconian lockdowns and strip our freedoms from us. ::”
In the spirit of the times, we watched The Omega Man a few weeks ago. Envision a biological weapon like the one depicted in that film being unleashed, which basically kills everyone. Then I suppose really draconian measures would be justified. But then you’d really have to lockdown everyone. How long would the protected survive with no food to eat since the supply chain would completely stop?
The bottom line is that this sort of thinking just didn’t work. An event so horrific that would truly justify such a reaction makes the reaction just as deadly as the pandemic. Maybe the feds should supply every American a hazmat suit for future use, just in case.
I think an important point is that we have copied the Chicom method for handling it. Almost all nations copied the chicoms.
He was spraying his nectar of hate on yesterday's thread...
Has anyone looked at the Michigan timeline vis-à-vis the outbreak and then pandemic.
Here in Michigan, some areas were isolating and Primary elections were postponed or canceled. Yet Whitmer continued to minimize the impact so that the Michigan Primary vote could be held. [Note: Republican turnout was predicted to be quite high in support of Trump. Biden support reported to be strong.] Soon after that, the spread began and the State was under emergency quarantine orders. Soon after the Michigan vote showed Biden as the strongest candidate, Wuhan flu got hot in Detroit.
Did Whitmer’s slow response, in order to reserve the Primary vote, play a role in the Michigan epidemic? Or, can we play the Democrat game of saying Trump was slow to respond?
IMPO, Whitmer’s slow response was intended to put Joe “over the top” while attempting to infect as many /Republican voters/ as possible. Whether, D or R, the health and lives of the voters were not considered. It didn’t matter how many got ill or died. Just as long as they voted and Joe moved on. D’s that died are simply martyrs for the cause.
I tried to tell this fellow (I think in vain) that it’s useless to try and use personal anecdotes in a statistical argument.
My brother is an actuary. He crunches numbers for pension plans. His grim job is figuring out when people will die so that the fund managers can work towards sufficient rates of return.
When people find out what he does for a living they put him in the very uncomfortable position of asking him “so, how long have I got?” He answers them thus:
“If you put 5000 people your age in an auditorium and ask me how many of you will still be alive in ten years, I can give you a really accurate prediction. For any one individual I’m clueless.”
People die every day of all sorts of things. A lot of them far more horrible than CV. But they don’t get waived under our noses by the press 24/7.
I talked to a friend yesterday. He is a physical therapist at an orthopedic hospital. They had to furlough about 75% of the staff due to a lack of surgeries. He told me that the therapists and assistants were getting a covid bonus from the government along with unemployment. It amounted to $1,100 a week. Now that Texas has opened up, he has called some of them back to return to work. Some of them don’t want to because they can make the same money and stay at home.
Subject:: It’s not about your health! (H/T Grampa Dave)
“When the State tells you it’s safe to go to Home Depot to buy a sponge but dangerous to go and buy a flower, it’s not about your health.
When the State shuts down millions of private businesses but doesn’t lay off a single government employee, it’s not about your health.
When the State bans dentists because its unsafe, but deems an abortion visit is safe, it’s not about your health.
When the State prevents you from buying cucumber seeds because it’s dangerous, but allows personal lottery ticket sales, it’s not about your health.
When the State tells you it’s dangerous to go golf alone, fish alone or be in a motor boat alone, but the Governor can get his stage make-up done, and hair done for 5 TV appearances a week, it’s not about your health.
When the state puts you IN a jail cell for walking in a park with your child because it’s too dangerous but lets criminals OUT of jail cells for their health- It’s not about YOUR health!
When the state tells you it’s too dangerous to get treated by a doctor for chiropractic or physical therapy treatments yet deems a liquor store essential- It’s not about your health!
When the State lets you go to the grocery store or hardware store but is demanding mail-in voting, ITS NOT ABOUT YOUR HEALTH.
WAKE UP PEOPLE — If you think this is all about your health you’re mistaken! Please open your eyes! Stop being lead like blind sheep.”
A 36-year old died here yesterday when his motorcycle hit a deer. Another one of a similar age was struck and killed by a car. Probably a texter.
because it’s endlessly repeated that China banned domestic flights on 23 Jan while allowing flights to the rest of the world, I have tried to find the source of the claim.
you may not agree with this academic, Daniel Bell, ideologically - or you may have information which debunks what he has uncovered - fair enough, in which case please provide your evidence. however, if he is correct, then this information needs to be widely disseminated, because otherwise it will be ammunition for the Chinese Govt to suggest other accusations are also dubious.
first, there seems to be some agreement Niall Ferguson (not to be confused with covid scaremongerer Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London) was the source. Ferguson is well-respected; check his Wikipedia page for more info.
20 Apr: Lifesite News: Did China’s leaders deliberately ‘seed’ coronavirus around the world?
Niall Ferguson seems to have been the first to point out a striking anomaly. Why, asks the Hoover Institution scholar, did Xi “cut off travel from Hubei to the rest of China – on January 23 – but not from Hubei to the rest of the world?”...
https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/did-chinas-leaders-deliberately-seed-coronavirus-around-the-world
10 Apr: NY Mag: It’s Time for Conscious Uncoupling With China
By Andrew Sullivan
On January 23, President Xi locked down all air traffic from Wuhan to the rest of China — but, as Niall Ferguson pointed out, not to the rest of the world. It’s as if they said to themselves, “Well, we’re going under, so we might as well bring the rest of the world down with us.”...
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/andrew-sullivan-time-for-conscious-uncoupling-with-china.html
the original Ferguson article is not showing up for me on UK Times, but it is published here:
6 Apr: Globe & Mail: Let’s Zoom Xi. He has questions to answer
by NIALL FERGUSON
(Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford)
Third, after it became clear that there was a full-blown epidemic spreading from Wuhan to the rest of Hubei province, why did you cut off travel from Hubei to the rest of China – on January 23 – but not from Hubei to the rest of the world?...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-lets-zoom-xi-he-has-questions-to-answer/
now for what Daniel Bell uncovered in his interactions with Niall Ferguson. read carefully:
21 Apr: Did the Chinese Government Deliberately Export Covid-19 to the Rest of the World?
Posted by Daniel A. Bell
(Daniel A. Bell is Dean of the School of Political Science and Public Administration at Shandong University and professor at Tsinghua University (Schwarzman College and Department of Philosophy). He was born in Montreal, educated at McGill and Oxford, has taught in Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai, and has held research fellowships at Princeton’s University Center for Human Values, Stanford’s Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and Hebrew University’s Department of Political Science)
https://danielabell.com/2020/04/21/did-the-chinese-government-deliberately-export-covid-19-to-the-rest-of-the-world/?fbclid=IwAR3jGO8BQRNKQgXBNkkTVYJEpwAV38Mw2tV_fQohJl5Q6jZjxbcxEwj_nAs
another version on CCP’s CGTN:
28 Apr updated 30 Apr: CGTN op-ed: Did the Chinese government deliberately export COVID-19 to the rest of the world?
by Daniel Bell
Editor’s note: Daniel Bell is dean of the School of Political Science and Public Administration, Shandong University
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-28/Did-China-deliberately-export-COVID-19-to-the-rest-of-the-world—Q2oGomPRss/index.html
all I would add is, if Bell is right, and Ferguson was wrong, it still would not eliminate Wuhan residents travelling post-Jan 23 from other Cities which were not banned early, or who travelled to places around the world pre-Jan 23.
best this matter is clarified sooner rather than later.
I tried to tell this fellow (I think in vain) that it’s useless to try and use personal anecdotes in a statistical argument.
Only the intellectually dishonest won’t admit that the statistics are already corrupt. The case numbers are vastly inflated due to double counting and there is a financial incentive to declare a fatality as Chicom flu related.
Your ramblings are as incoherent as baffling
Here is all you need to know
“We appear to have grossly underestimated the number of astmptomatic cases”
Dr Brix
Yesterday.
You fail to include the possible deaths and include that in your inflated data. I am using primary sources data from individual health departments. Yoj quote news articles
I am sorry you don’t like the data. It must be terrible to be rooting for the deaths of Americans so you can be correct. You are not correct now and based on your tenuous grasp of reality you will likely never be correct
*
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