Posted on 04/22/2020 7:02:10 AM PDT by taxcontrol
I have been informally tracking the mortality rate of Covid-19 by dividing the number of reported deaths by the number of confirmed cases. I see a trend developing that is concerning. I have been seeing the percentage increasing over time. When I started tracking, the rate was down around 2.8%. It has slowling been increasing and now it is around 4.8%.
Thoughts?
Concern troll much?
Maybe just fewer tests being done. Only the bad cases get admitted to the hospital, they don’t test the patient if they don’t admit. Perhaps most tests are done at hospital?
The vast majority of people with it are not getting tested. Heck, 80-90% of those getting tested are negative in most of the country. We are really
Measuring the mortality rate of about 20-30% of those who have it.
More deaths being attributed to it, caused by the virus or not?.
Testing is too restricted.
Considering the large number of people that unknowingly had wuflu the mortality rate is BS.
I can tell you if the mortality rate was really going up like you say, there is no way Polis would be reopening businesses on Monday.
You don’t know what the REAL denominator is in your “mortality rate calculation”, so it is worthless. Several recent articles out there pegging mortality rate at 0.1 or 0.2%
It’s a race to get to 200k+ deaths to attempt to dunk on Trump’s number.
Every death right now is being attributed to Covid.
That means the statistics are invalid.
Your denominator is bad. If you had the true denominator these movements would be in the noise. Also, as we are seeing, the numerator is in question also.
My county has over 5% mortality of positive tested patients. There are probably 10 to 20 times as many people feeling sick who couldn’t get tested. The disease also got into nursing homes where it spreads easily among a high mortality population.
Good question, and there is actually a good answer:
It’s a function of the delay it takes to die.
Suppose it takes 12 days for a coronavirus patient to die. Suppose the number of infections doubles every three days. So on March 1, there are 100 infections. On March 13, 12 days later, there will be sixteen times more infections, or 1,600 infections.
Now suppose 1 in 10 of the people infected on March 1 will die. That’s 10 deaths. 10% mortality rate, right? Well... not according to the early data. See, they’ll die on March 13, when there will be 1,600 infections. So at that point in time, only 10 out of 1,600 people have died, so the death rate will be less than 1%.
Eventually, as the number of people infected stabilizes, the data will trend towards 10%.
All deaths are now caused by the virus.😀
Simple. They only test those that are symptomatic. That way the death rate is artificially high by orders of magnitude, whereby government accrues more power.
All the numbers are garbage except the total number of dead people, by all causes.
We already know the reason for an artificially low CFR initially. Not enough people had died yet in the course of the epidemic. It stands to reason that if the CFR was artificially low on the “upswing” the “Averages” would have to “give that back” on the downside. Wouldn’t you expect the CFR to be “artificially high” on the down swing?
Less testing, and it’s more lucrative for the states to call everything a Covid-19 death. It is complete and utter horse crap that the death rate would be increasing.
What is “CFR”?
Finally, you might have presumed Covid19 deaths without testing, increasing the numerator without increasing the denominator. Example: a patient in a nursing home dies with a fever and pneumonia. There is Covid19 at the nursing home so the death is counted that way, but a positive test is never obtained or is added late to the total.
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