Posted on 03/24/2020 10:11:11 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #25 here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3827443/posts?page=1
The irony is that Easter will be too late—the numbers will be so crazy by then that the President will be under incredible pressure to keep everything closed.
At our current rate of case doubling every three days we are talking about 500K cases at the end of the first week of April and 1M cases by Easter, with every major city hospital seriously overloaded.
(They may not all be shown in the stats, because I believe that in some areas the testing lab materials, equipment and ppes will limit testing ability. There are also could be some bending in the curve due to efforts in effect now, but best case I think we are looking at 500K cases by Easter.)
I also think it is at least 50-50 that by then we will have the dying in public caught on camera stuff going on...
I will believe the Easter opening when I see it...
“Its big of you to kill off a million people and not care .”
It’s going to happen whether anyone cares or not.
cut a hole? agitate? What, you want me to do work?. Now, using grandkid slave labor? that’s pure pleasure :)
(seriously, haha, both ways do the job - maybe plunger better on jeans, tho.)
“If the hospitals get overwhelmed, those 70 to 80 year olds are going to be allowed to die in favor of treating the young.”
So let’s not overwhelm them. Duh.
Per the chart you posted it APPEARS the US may flatten the curve.
No longer doubling every two days.
rumors senators could show up in hazmat suits if necessary
i think this will make schumer cave...they cant really want that optic.
CFR for the flu is on average 0.1%. Average.
We have the capability to saved many more by not discarding them. This isn’t trench warfare in WWI
Agree with you most of the time, but not here.
Life’s isn’t always A or B
We have options as long as some aren’t selfish.
Keep the elderly safe as possible and sheltered against harm. We can get through this and they can too if were not selfish. Yes they’re greater risk. But or selfishness ruining the healthcare they will need is both reckless damning.
It happens to be true, and can make people more willing to make the most of the rest of their life.
Two words - Virgin Airlines.
We’re looking better alright. Praying the decline continues. I find S.K. troubling - deaths from Corona are increasing again. Also, note the two deaths from the Diamond Princess! What’s that all about?
He’s got Magic Underwear, he’s good.
dead/dead+or recovered(resolved cases “one or the other”)
death rate....may start high but will drop “hopefully as more recover. Final mortality rate will be much lower as pestilence ends but how much lower...who can say.
or recovery rate...Recovered/dead + recovered(total resoved cases. May start low but will rise as more recover and less die.
Testing is increasing but it isn’t meaningful for stats as it only shows who may have had the virus for up to 3 weeks and many have had no or very mild disease.
What really tells us if prevalence is increasing will be the sudden uptick for covids related acute hosptializations where there weren’t any going on before or were at a very low level. People may panic thinking their sniffle is covids(and it may be but not serious enough for the hospital) and numbers wiil rush the hospital(usually at oh dark thirty) have to be screened but that is not what I mean.
I mean large numbers in the space of a few days just pouring hospitals having gone into severe dehydration,shock, hypoxia, sepsis and respiratory distress all at once in a given area where there had been little or none before. That’s how you know the covids’ numbers have increased in large percentages in the population(whether tested or untested); that’s when numbers start to be significant. That’s when you know whether your mitigation efforts have succeeded or not.
“The irony is that Easter will be too late—the numbers will be so crazy by then that the President will be under incredible pressure to keep everything closed.”
That’s what I am thinking, too. Trump understands there is a significant portion of the electorate that hates the shutdowns and that they are primarily in his base. He hates them, too, but he knows they are necessary.
I’d expect an approach of opening up where we can, and I don’t expect that to include any major US metro area.
I know there are those (not flubros) who think the CFR is pointless before the pandemic is over. I disagree. I think it is very meaningful, as long as you're aware of its limitations. In fact, all the statistics are "transient" while the pandemic is ongoing. But together they form a picture that helps you make decisions.
“reckless damning”
There will be millions of damned survivors.
Lookner is obfuscating the President saying he would like to open with the President saying he will open. That is borderline clown commentary. Stick to the spews.
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