Chinese Virus daily Thread #22

[Mariner]

Thread #21 here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826151/posts?page=1

[scouter]

The way the CFR varies by outbreak location, I tend to believe we’re seeing more virulent mutated strain in certain locations. Some attribute it to populations with more elderly, and smoking, etc, however I remember talk of different strains and now not so much.

I agree. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for CLOSED CASES (based on official published numbers) for various locations are listed below:

China - 4.3% (obviously bogus)
Italy - 44.0% (Overwhelmed)
Spain - 64.2% (Overwhelmed??)
United States - 65.7% (Low sample size)
Germany - 26.4% (Low sample size)
Iran - 16.9%
France - 22.1%
S. Korea - 3.8%
Switzerland - 81%
UK - 73.5%

For those who are comparing this to the published mortality rates, understand that the Mortality Rate and the Case Fatality Rate are not the same thing, even though their names might give the impression that they are. The numbers I've posted are calculated as deaths/closed cases, where a closed case is one where the patient either died or recovered. It does not include those who are still sick or who have the disease and remain undiagnosed. Thus, it answers a different question than statistics (like the mortality rate) that include those people. It answers the question If I am diagnosed with this disease, how likely am I to die from it?

CFR is also frequently calculated over a period of time, which is appropriate for diseases such as cancer. For example, it could be calculated to answer the question If I am diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, how likely am I to die within the next year?

So it is perfectly legitimate to calculate the statistic as I have. You just have to know what cases are included in the denominator to begin to understand the question that the number is answering.

Case Fatality Rates are used as one indication among several of the severity of an illness. A disease with a low CFR that is widely prevalent or contagious will not kill many people. On the other hand, a highly contagious disease with a high CFR can end up killing many, many people. And of course, the worst case scenario is a disease that is both highly contagious and has a high CFR. It is arguable, at least (and in my personal opinion, already demonstrated) that this is that case with COVID-19, or Coronavirus.

There are many factors that can influence a CFR. Here's a list of just some of them:

• How many people have been tested
• Ability of the local health care system to accurately diagnose the disease. This includes the accuracy of their testing methods.
• The ability of the local health care system to accurately collect and report data. This includes the political will to be transparent.
• The ability and willingness of political and health care decision makers to take early action.
• The unique strain of the virus that is predominant in a given location
• The ability of the health care system in that location to treat the number of patients with the disease. This includes numbers of hospital beds, availability of medications, ventilators, etc., number of uninfected health care personnel, etc.
• The experience the medical personnel in any given area have with the disease, and their access to information from other professionals
• The season of the year (although it's not clear that's relevant with Coronavirus, and there are indications it is not)
• Genetics
• The prevalence of other diseases and health conditions in the local community, including age, diabetes, obesity, lung disease (think of places with polluted air), poverty, malnutrition, etc.

I find it interesting to note that the only places with a CFR in the single digits (as I have calculated it) are in Asia. I don't know what that means. It could be simply bad data reporting. Or it could be a genetic factor.

[scouter]

What link are you using?

I'm using these two links:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[bgill]

Reagents and swabs. That’s another thing Nancy can blame on Trump despite she’s been in various demonrat offices for some 50 years.

[justa-hairyape]

Next time ask her if she was ever bitten by a bat. She should say no, and then she will think about that for awhile. Lol.

[justa-hairyape]

Corona truthers. Never ever give up. Fight to the last man, woman, child and it.

That bat just had the flu bro !

[bgill]

The food handlers site - That’s a joke site, right? Should be.

Anyone trusting food handlers before was crazy. Anyone trusting food handlers today is certifiable.

My salad, yes, dressing on the side, fresh ground pepper a sprinkling of CV shedding, please.

[amorphous]

Thanks for posting a concise and well written explanation of the difference between Mortality Rate and the Case Fatality Rate. This is very confusing to many.

I find it interesting to note that the only places with a CFR in the single digits (as I have calculated it) are in Asia. I don't know what that means. It could be simply bad data reporting. Or it could be a genetic factor.

Designed into the virus?

And...

Might a country planning a bio-weapon attack, given the technology, release a less virulent strain among their own populace prior to the attack on their enemy? This would would serve as a smoke screen, as well as to inoculate the majority of its own population from the more virulent and deadly strain to be released upon their enemy, shortly after.

[Fury]

The food handlers site - That’s a joke site, right? Should be.

It's similar to the FSIS of the US.

So why is it a joke site? If you're going to laugh it off, provide a reference that you trust, or go run off and play.

[amorphous]

I'm using these two links:

Another good link:

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#stat

[amorphous]

I had in mind thousands of small trash barrel fires, where residents in cities were reduced to burning their rubbish, as a possible source.

[janetjanet998]

Jon Ostrower
@jonostrower
·
11m
BREAKING: Ground stop now in effect — all departures stopped — for JFK, LGA, EWR due to positive covid-19 tests. Other regional airspace sectors halted through key “gates” through NY air traffic areas. -Sources

[justa-hairyape]

They may have thought the less virulent strain would develop immunity, but were surprised to find out it was partial immunity ? The more virulent was vectored to the Diamond Princess, Iran and Itay. Unfortunately just the cutouts. Intended targets being Japan, Canada and Europe.

[blueplum]

It’s a way to help restaurants survive - like fast food, they make a majority of their profit on their beverages ( and desserts). We had take-out prime rib last night, but they hadn’t heard the news of being able to also sell wine. (but not to worry, we had some Jameson’s left over from cooking our corned beef so we had our before-dinner cocktail-at home lol)

I’m wondering if bars that serve food can now reopen for curbside service at least of bottled beer, wine and canned cocktails as a way to help support them, also ??

[Disestablishmentarian]

It could be with limited access (CCP shutdown of cell phones?) people simply aren't able to rack up minutes and data?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Bingo.

I think we have finally detected the incidence of totalitarian communism in China.

[Em and Brets Mum]

Thank you for Chinese Virus Daily Thread #22!

[bgill]

Don’t eat, you don’t have any need for toilet facilities.

[bgill]

Would you really trust the temp checkers to keep themselves and you free from the virus the guy in front of you has?

[grey_whiskers]

From a poster on Instapundit, gotroy22:

No wonder Hiltery is parrotting the Red Chinese line:

~ Clinton friend Yah Lin “Charlie” Trie pleaded guilty to charges of violating campaign finance rules in exchange for having pending indictments dropped against him in Washington and Arkansas.

~ According to news reports in 1997, Democratic donor Johnny Chung received a $150,000 transfer from the Bank of China three days before he handed then-First Lady Hillary Clinton’s chief of staff a $50,000 check.

~ Johnny Chung first met the Clintons in 1992. From 1994 to 1996, Chung visited the White House 49 times. Nearly half of those visits were authorized by the office of the First Lady. In one visit, Hillary met with Chung and his visiting delegation of Chinese businessmen from state-run companies.

~ Liu Chaoying was the daughter of General Liu Huaqing (1916-2011) who arranged to give businessman and ally of the Clintons, Johnny Chung, $300,000 which was then donated to the DNC. The DNC was later forced to return the money.

~ Then-Vice President Al Gore received political donations from Buddhist nuns who had taken a vow of poverty.

~ President Clinton admitted in 1997 that he invited major campaign donors to spend the night in the White House. The Clintons hosted 404 overnight guests.

~ During the investigation by the Department of Justice, about 120 people connected to “Chinagate” either fled the country or pleaded the Fifth Amendment to prevent testifying.

Judicial Watch brought the case on behalf of shareholders of Loral Space & Communications Ltd. They transferred sensitive US missile technology to China in the 1990s. The CEO Bernard Schwartz gave $1.5 million to various Democratic Party entities including Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection campaign.

At the same time Schwartz and Loral convinced the Clinton Administration to transfer technology export licensing authority from the State Department to the more politically-influenced Commerce Department. Schwartz and Loral then obtained licenses from the Commerce Department that were needed to launch Loral-manufactured communications satellites into orbit from China.

They ended up advancing China’s missile program which is a threat to US national security.

[amorphous]

I think they’re going for world domination. The Muslims going to be pissed...the dragon’s 200 million man army soon to be on the march.

[blueplum]

and, this, is how you know, this is Panda Propaganda:

” but it also appears Americans and Canadians may be complicit in aiding the Chinese biowarfare program.”

America is NOT complicit, Canada is NOT complicit, and anyone who spreads that crap is a Panda sympathizer