Posted on 03/06/2020 12:19:11 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Continuation of Thread
No 10 here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3821921/posts
Here’s one haven’t seen posted yet.
* What about census takers?
* What social distancing possible?
* Materials? Exchanged by hand?
Steve Lookner
@lookner
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5s
3 new cases in Georgia today. 1 case, from Fulton County (where Atlanta is), is of unknown origin. Other 2 cases are from Cobb & Gwinnett County, and both recently returned from Italy.
This is changing by the hour, but your figure sounds accurate as of cob yesterday.
That is my only source—no clue where they got the number from...
Bkmk
I may have missed it- but does anyone know where the New York lawyer, patient 0, got CV from?
From CDC.gov: “As of March 5, 2020 1,583 patients had been tested at CDC”.
Not sure they’ve found out.
IIRC he was on a flight to/from Miami so it might have been there.
But likely from someone asymptomatic or thinking they had allergies or a little cold.
This seems to be the either/or virus. Not a spectrum. Either you have a mild case OR you end up in the hospital. No in between.
Did you not see the part where I specifically said its completely disingenuous to compare the two due to exactly the issue of time scale. There are hundreds of doctors with PHDS and M.D. working very hard to pin down what COVID19 actual fatality rate is. Those authorities who have the funding, data and research that no one NO ONE on any of these threads gets to see as in governmental level data have come out and said this bug with their level of data access has a 2 to 3.4% CFR don’t like those numbers take it up with the world’s foremost authority on viral transmission. I only point out that this bug has already proven so far to be many times more lethal than meh just flu. It also puts a good percentage in the intensive care unit where without access to respirators and pure O2 those people would die as well. This is important as has been pointed out time and time again there’s only limited icu beds when the system crashes and with an R0 of greater than 2 it is utterly inevitable that we will see hundreds of thousands sick in a few doubling times.
This also has been pointed out adnausum mathematically. Unless we do something drastic to break the chains of infection the healthcare system in this country will be overwhelmed in the next few weeks. Its simple grade school math, we do not have any cure nor.vaccine the only way to stop a virus with a positive replication rate is with removing available hosts. That can be done with isolation of the sick or isolation of the healthy but the two must be separated. The only other way is for the virus to run out of new hosts that happens at a penetration rate of 70+ percent infection as new hosts get harder and harder for the virus to find.
Preparation is a sure fire way to avoid panic. Having the supplies on hand to isolate and deprive the virus of new hosts is THE most effective way to break the chain of infection. China did this very effectively, Korea is doing it , Singapore should be the model they beat the bug only to now have cases coming in from countries they haven’t shut out. Social distancing WILL be mandatory for areas here that is an inevitably best be ready for it. The west coast specifically King county is first they will have lawful orders for mandatory isolation of the general public in a week or two.
NBC New York
@NBCNewYork
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1m
#BREAKING: Connecticut doctor who lives in New York and made rounds at a Bridgeport hospital tests positive for COVID-19
Last I read, he infected 11 people.
You are the definition of normalcy bias:
Things are the way they are. They are the way they have always been. And therefore, it will always be the same.
Until it isn’t.
All of the maladies that are probably going to kill you are already baked into the cake. 50,000 flu deaths happen every year. So, we staff for 50,000 flu deaths. And every other death type. We build hospitals to handle that. We have ICU beds to handle that. There is no slack in that system. At all.
Now, drop on top of that 20,000 more patients. Not infected people, but patients that need hospitalization in an ICU.
You guys look at this as if it is a black or white situation—either you get the flu or you get this new virus.
It is happening at the same time. It could cause a chokepoint in the system—thus overwhelming our healthcare system. Note: I am not saying millions of people. Tens of thousands will screw it up pretty bad.
The bigger issue is that the economic impact will be much larger. Most people are “shocked” by the flu deaths. They are ignorant of the status quo.
This will cause them to be hypersensitive about it—changing the way they live their day to day lives. That will have an impact on our economy. And a magnified one.
Now drop on top of all of THAT...we are still about five to six weeks from getting the supply chain back up from China. That will start impacting US factories in a larger way in the coming weeks.
None of this is hyperbole. None of it should be read with a tone of screaming, shrieking, or any other utterance except calm recitation of facts.
You and I probably will never get sick from this. The odds are certainly in our favor that we will not die.
But the odds are very good that we will feel an economic impact from it.
Its that simple.
The numbers I have seen is 15% of those who have the disease are hospitalized.
However, there may be different criteria in different countries over what gets you into the hospital.
I think the percentage may be lower because some folks may have such minor symptoms in the general population that they may never get tested.
NY state 21 new cases total 76
Thanks BenLurkin.
Thanks. It seems from what we’ve learned he must have been in early (profuse shedding) stage because he’s infected a LOT of people.
Listening to Cuomo—didn’t know about the two Saratoga cases—that is Jim Kunstler country—he is going to be freaking. ;-)
I’m in Tuolumne County, CA. Near Yosemite. No hand sanitizer anywhere. Some bare spaces in over the counter medicines, so far...
People in general might confuse their allergy sneezing with CV but sneezing isn’t on the list of symptoms.
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