Posted on 03/06/2020 12:19:11 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Continuation of Thread
No 10 here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3821921/posts
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/default.cfm
Anything you’re on that’s on that list might be dodgy to get next month...
Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n
Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n
By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n
If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n
If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n
As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n
One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n
NOTE: She’s actually an engineer.
IF you want to follow an epidemiologist, this is a good thread:
https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb
Let’s not feed the troll, he’ll burn out.
Just fill your empty travel size hand sanitizer or whatever container with 70% rubbing alcohol and not worry about a recipe. All those extra ingredients do nothing but water down the effectiveness of a squirt.
CDC.
Coronavirus Distribution Center.
“That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.
........................
So if you do the math the normal flu-virus we get here in the US yields about a 2% death rate. 1.65% by my math for the most recent period.”
Is this common core math? 79400 death / 48.8 million cases is 0.1654% CFR you are off by an order of magnitude. The WHO has COVID19 at 3.4% , the CDC says 2% the two viruses are not even in the same family of virus, and the COVID19 strain is novel humans have no immunity developed yet to it and artificial immunity is years away if ever with a vaccine. This bug is brother’s with MERS and SARS both are nearly identical coronavirus strains and those bugs have 9 to 30% CFR it would be a blessing to have this one only be 2% but it is in no way shape form or function flu it is completely disingenuous to compare the two. Comparing a novel strain that has under 8 weeks as a global spread to an.entire years worth of influenza cases is also completely disingenuous. This bug has an replication number or R0 of 2 to 6 with individual cases in the hundreds. Example the woman who infected the church in Korea or in the 20s for the lawyer in New York whose R0 for that cluster is 20 and still climbing. This bug is at least twice as contagious as flu if not six to 20 times as much, this is largely due to it being novel and everyone exposed has never been exposed before their body must mount a completely virgin defence.
I would totally agree. But, collapsing the economy and letting our potus take the blame is surely not the answer.
These “big picture” calculations are overly optimistic by a large factor because cases requiring hospitalization will not be uniformly spread out around the country.
They are more likely to be in clusters (think metro Seattle, SF, NY, Boston, for example). Those hospitals will be in crisis mode very quickly, while many other hospitals will be fine for a long time.
Airlifting thousand of patients across the country (given the biohazard environment required) is very very difficult (best case)—may in fact be impossible.
CDC estimates are way off
Actual for 2018-19 as of Feb 19, 2019:
There have been 11,600 to 19,100 deaths so far.
A total of 34 influenza-associated pediatric deaths have been reported to CDC for this season.
For the 2017-2018 season, 185 pediatric flu deaths were reported.
Between 184,000 and 221,000 people have been hospitalized with the flu so far this season.
The CDC said the flu typically kills 12,000 to 56,000 people in the U.S. in a year.
“The number of deaths we’re seeing is a little bit surprising,” CDC epidemiologist Brendan Flannery told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s a reminder that flu can be severe.”
https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2019-02-15-flu-season-vaccine-illnesses-deaths
I am amazed you have such faith in your stats since the virus has only been around for a few months yet we have years of stats on the flu.You must be completely clairvoyant to know what you know about a virus that has virtually no history.
BREAKING: Sources tell NY1 that a new case of the coronavirus has been confirmed in Far Rockaway. Stay with NY1 for more updates.
The economic hit is already baked in at this point.
Denying this only makes the right look bad.
Take the narrative away from the left and blame previous presidents.
But don’t deny there’s a problem, that will drive independents away really fast. They’ll just think righties are stupid and live in glass houses.
And mentioning the supply chain issues isn’t collapsing the economy. The supply chain issues do that all by themselves.
I’ve been freezing my bananas.
I’ve been grocery shopping every day this week, trying to stock up. I’m behind the curve. From now on, only things that I can store.
I have an autistic Grandson who lives with us with a picky (very picky) diet. I guess I’ll worry about that one when I get there.
How many of those ‘flu deaths’ and hospitalizations are really the initial cases of coronavirus that weren’t diagnosed because...no tests...?
This is probably old news on here, but Sirius XM radio has a 24/7 coronavirus channel, number 121, which works even if you are not a current subscriber.
The 3M company in Brownwood, TX just finished an expansion and began hiring new employees in Jan. One of their products is protective clothing.
I think medical personnel might need refresher training using the ‘baby powder’ technique.
Sprinkle baby powder on various parts of the bunny suit, then get it off without the powder becoming airborne.
I’d bet a dollar most are contaminated taking that suit off - it’s hot, it’s sweaty, their bladders are about to burst, and they want out of that suit fast.
Since this is apolitical forum I am concerned about the political ramification to our potus from a political party they is willing to lie distort and do anything they can to take him out.I only hope others here are as well.
has anyone drafted the MY Pillow guy to produce PPE’s?
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