Coronavirus live thread 1-26

lookner ^

[janetjanet998]

Steve Lookner about to go live for updates

There are currently 1,764 confirmed cases worldwide, including 54 fatalities.

[independentmind]

Virginia Department of Health has recently put up a website about novel Coronavirus. There are statistics at bottom of page on status of cases in Virginia.

You can find it here:

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/

FYI, I live in Central Virginia, and suspect the cases under investigation here are connected with the large university here. Time will tell.

[grey_whiskers]

Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-New York, is asking President Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to declare a public health emergency to free up money for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to battle the virus before it becomes an American pandemic.

Tie it to money for a wall.

Otherwise, drop off Chuck Schumer in person in Wuhan for an UP CLOSE investigation of this current issue. No protective gear, wouldn't want to panic the deplorables. Parachute optional.

[janetjanet998]

and yet more planes keep flying in every hour

[BusterDog]

"Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread"

"Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe."

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

[Magic Fingers]

‘rapid approval of experimental therapeutics’ == throwing spaghetti at the wall.

But what’s plan B...slow approval of experimental therapeutics?

[grey_whiskers]

https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmobile.twitter.com%2FT_Inglesby%3A8ta2K7AC-vgsGx_OBKY97Y9poKU&cuid=4235850

Director, Johns Hopkins SPH Center for Health Security

In other words, not a quack...

We don’t know what overall CFR will be w/ nCoV-that requires more data, time. SARS-like illness has been seen in some, but we don’t know what % of nCoV pts will get severe disease. We all hope it’ll be far less than SARS, but we don’t know enough to predict %. (4/x)

We also don’t have enough data on H2H transmission yet to make confident predictions about how it will spread. We don’t know enough about extent of asymptomatic cases, asymptomatic spread, proportion of spread happening in health care facilities vs community. (5/x)

But given uncertainties + very high stakes, part of global & national planning efforts should now be aimed at possibility that nCoV containment could fail. (6/x)

He’s quoting from an epidemiologist at Imperial College, London.

In other words, the top people have been communicating informally.

Try actually reading it.

[DoodleBob]

Because in practice, each vector would be longer than 1x1. True, we could just multiply the averages of each vector, but a better approach is to look at the values at discrete increments of time. Indeed, this would provide for a better evaluation of the pandemic's progression, as we'd likely see high initial values then an easing of values over time.

In fact, the current hysteria is, in part, likely based off high predicted modeled/simulated initial values and extrapolation without any easing.

I hope that tutoring helps. We can reconvene in 60 days. Thanks for listening.

[DoodleBob]

You’re funny. And wrong. It’s ok it happens.

[independentmind]

The virus sticks around on hard surfaces. I think the technical expression fo this is forties.

Trying to contain this might involve bringing world trade, or at least the part related to China, to a standstill. AND that is what no one really wants to address.

[independentmind]

Should have said fomites.

[Mom MD]

I don’t believe I have said anything different than you have printed here but glad u can read my mind

[eyedigress]

I just report the numbers from the Chinese govt as disseminated through the SCMN.

[grey_whiskers]

Read Post #566 this thread. The director of the School of Public Health at Johns F*cking Hopkins, is saying, out loud, verbatim, in public, that we should be getting ready, at a national/global level, for the possibility that this cannot be contained.

And that we don't have enough information to tell what the CFR will be.

Sod off, swampy.

[eyedigress]

Here is the latest.

2084
cases

56
deaths

[grey_whiskers]

I haven’t seen you communicating the urgency of planning at a national/global level, for the possibility that this cannot be contained; nor admitting that we cannot tell what the CFR will be.

Quoting the Director of the School of Public Health at Johns F*cking Hopkins. In public, under his own name.

[PghBaldy]

Really? An enclosed gurney? I don’t think so.

[janetjanet998]

the news was just starting to cover this more but now with the kobe crash people will be distracted

most people i talked to have no clue what really is going on

[Hugh the Scot]

We all will. It’s good that you’re paying attention.

[Vermont Lt]

Just to jump into your fray...

The Joint Commission requires that every hospital, region, and state have a coordinated, reviewed, and approved emergency plan to deal with these things. I am sure this is all rolled up to the Federal level.

It’s on the back of my desk in the white binder.

Having the plan and expecting everyone to have read it, and the ability to execute are different things.

[Vermont Lt]

Yeah, an enclosed gurney. You think this is the only infectious transport going on in the world? If it were, the gurneys wouldn’t exist.