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The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper
Medium ^ | Apr 20, 2018 | BJ Campbell

Posted on 11/19/2019 3:40:51 PM PST by metmom

As gun policy discussions unfold in the wake of mass shooter incidents, they routinely end in three buckets.

There’s the “tyranny can never happen here” bucket, which the left has mostly abdicated in the wake of Trump winning after they called (and still call) him a tyrant.

There’s the “you can’t fight the army with small arms” bucket, which is increasingly unsound given our ongoing decade-and-a-half war with Afghani tribal goat herders.

And there’s the “what the hell do you need an AR-15 for anyway?” bucket, which, by its very language, eschews a fundamental lack of understanding of what those people are thinking.

I am not a prepper. But I know a few. Some of the ones I do know are smart. They may not be doing as deep an analysis as I present here, on a mathematical level, but the smart ones are definitely doing it at a subconscious level. If you want to understand the perspectives of others, as everyone in my opinion should strive to do, then you would do well to read to the end of this article. To get where we’re going, we will need to discuss the general framework of disaster mathematics.

(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: 2ndamendment; banglist; nra; prepper; preppers; secondamendment; shtf
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To: ping jockey
The world of prepping seems to hinge on hard structures with entreanched defenses. If one is extremely wealthy this may work. For the rest of us , mobility and a spread out cache of survival materials is the best plan. Groups of like minded , SANE individuals can then band together for mutual survival and defense.

Banding together so as to form militias in stressful events is an even better strategy.

Single preppers are extremely vulnerable.

Somewhat organized communities are much more defend-able.

41 posted on 11/20/2019 6:30:43 AM PST by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: Jamestown1630

Just “Rack It”
.
That scares Them off!


42 posted on 11/20/2019 6:39:32 AM PST by Big Red Badger (Despised by the Despicable!)
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To: ping jockey

Agree.

A successful tribe would need a variety of skill sets — nurses, mechanics, framers, gunsmiths, electricians, veterinarians, sharpshooters, McGyvers, etc.

A successful tribe would need various supplies in quantity — water, staple foods & spices & cooking gear, medicines, ammo, gasoline, t.p., diapers, tools, defensive gear, various hardware. A tribe with a gas station, grocery store and hardware store would be great.


43 posted on 11/20/2019 9:08:36 AM PST by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and ho few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: DesertRhino
I have often considered that the mathematical case for prepping could be proven by EVPI (Expected Value of Perfect Information) the equation for which is below:

It is often used in investing as a benchmark used to reject costly proposals. IMO the EMV of having a weapon when SHTF is infinite.
44 posted on 11/20/2019 10:14:59 AM PST by atomic_dog
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To: SauronOfMordor

I think that’s a lot more useful than people often think.

In fact, most animals sense the unusual before people do. I’ve got two cats who can hear sounds outside the doors or windows that I never hear.


45 posted on 11/20/2019 3:31:33 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: Big Red Badger

I was taught that the sound of racking it gives away your position. Better to have a shell already quietly chambered when coming up on bad guys.


46 posted on 11/20/2019 4:17:37 PM PST by SauronOfMordor (A Leftist can't enjoy life unless they are controlling, hurting, or destroying others.)
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To: Jamestown1630

You might try a smaller shotgun. A 410, perhaps.


47 posted on 11/20/2019 4:20:56 PM PST by dsc (Our system of government cannot survive one-party control of communications.)
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To: SauronOfMordor

“Get a good dog.”

I have a German Shepherd who’s just reaching a year.

He’s going to be great. I already sleep better.


48 posted on 11/20/2019 4:23:25 PM PST by dsc (Our system of government cannot survive one-party control of communications.)
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To: wgmalabama

“It’s a buzz saw.”

You gotta have trigger pullers.


49 posted on 11/20/2019 4:26:19 PM PST by dsc (Our system of government cannot survive one-party control of communications.)
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To: dsc

I think the reason I didn’t like handguns is because I have small hands and very slender wrists. They just felt very ‘wayward’ in my hands.

(But I had a lot of ‘beginner’s luck’ with them - despite my trembling and quaking reaction to experiencing such an explosive little *thing* in my hands :-)


50 posted on 11/20/2019 4:51:42 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: metmom
"Pretend you’re someone with your eyes on the horizon. What would you be looking for, exactly? Increasing partisanship. Civil disorder. Coup rhetoric. A widening wealth gap. A further entrenching oligarchy. Dysfunctional governance. The rise of violent extremist ideologies such as Nazism and Communism. Violent street protests. People marching with masks and dressing like the Italian Blackshirts. Attempts at large scale political assassination. Any one of those might not necessarily be the canary in the coal mine, but all of them in aggregate might be alarming to someone with their eyes on the horizon. Someone with disproportionate faith in the state is naturally inclined to disregard these sorts of events as a cognitive bias, while someone with little faith in the state might take these signs to mean they should buy a few more boxes of ammunition."

We've seen several of these in the past few years: Antifa, some students at college campuses act like Mao's Red Guards, etc.

51 posted on 11/20/2019 5:40:20 PM PST by ConjunctionJunction
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

You had me at “Prepper Math”!!!

My 2 favorite subjects!! And then I saw that it was statistics. Oh well, still pretty interesting.


52 posted on 11/20/2019 6:06:56 PM PST by CottonBall (This space for rent)
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To: MHGinTN

“well, in southern California especially, the Mexican invaders there will simply take everything Californians have for survival, and kill the victims then move on”

Exactly, one of many reasons Why we escaped


53 posted on 11/20/2019 6:09:19 PM PST by CottonBall (This space for rent)
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To: Jamestown1630

“It was just a way of life, and probably still is for many rural people who don’t even think of themselves as ‘preppers’. They’re just doing what they - and their ancestors - have always done.”

This is what I thought my neighbors were doing when we moved. Just living the way they were raised and the way their parents were raised. But then they started talking about dropping trees at the entrance to the holler so nobody could get in when there’s economic collapse. And that he’s raising cattle because we will need them. And the guy at the end of the holler said he has enough ammunition to load everybody up to defend the holler. His hobby is reloading. So they’ve gone a bit past their ancestors. LOL.


54 posted on 11/20/2019 6:14:00 PM PST by CottonBall (This space for rent)
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To: SauronOfMordor

“Get a good dog.”

I have the best dog ever!!

He’s a yorkie.

Oh, not what you meant???


55 posted on 11/20/2019 6:17:12 PM PST by CottonBall (This space for rent)
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To: CottonBall

I don’t know. It seems that we’ve evolved into an existence where Ideas - and Ideals - are the best weapons and protections. No matter what happens practically, God and Nature will endure - and the most valuable ideas and values will always come back around and be triumphant.

For me, ‘prepping’ is a practical thing - and in some ways a ‘fun’ one - to do and figure out, according to one’s personal situation. After all, there are always natural disasters.

But I don’t kid myself that it will somehow ‘save’ me if our society should break down completely. I put my real faith in things other than - and very different from - these material ones.


56 posted on 11/20/2019 7:01:45 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: CottonBall

I’ve been wavering; thought I wanted a Boston Terrier; but I think I really want a Greyhound.

(I have it on good authority that a Greyhound can take down a deer...I wouldn’t even need a gun :-)


57 posted on 11/20/2019 7:12:48 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: ConjunctionJunction

Exactly!


58 posted on 11/20/2019 7:33:44 PM PST by metmom ( ...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith...)
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To: Jamestown1630

I don’t know what you fired before, but the Ruger SR22 or the Sig Sauer P238 might fit you better. They are small and have little or no kick.


59 posted on 11/20/2019 7:50:56 PM PST by dsc (Our system of government cannot survive one-party control of communications.)
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To: Jamestown1630

I have heard that greyhounds do not bark much. They make good couch potatoes, though.

;-)


60 posted on 11/20/2019 8:13:52 PM PST by ConjunctionJunction
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