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The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper
Medium ^ | Apr 20, 2018 | BJ Campbell

Posted on 11/19/2019 3:40:51 PM PST by metmom

As gun policy discussions unfold in the wake of mass shooter incidents, they routinely end in three buckets.

There’s the “tyranny can never happen here” bucket, which the left has mostly abdicated in the wake of Trump winning after they called (and still call) him a tyrant.

There’s the “you can’t fight the army with small arms” bucket, which is increasingly unsound given our ongoing decade-and-a-half war with Afghani tribal goat herders.

And there’s the “what the hell do you need an AR-15 for anyway?” bucket, which, by its very language, eschews a fundamental lack of understanding of what those people are thinking.

I am not a prepper. But I know a few. Some of the ones I do know are smart. They may not be doing as deep an analysis as I present here, on a mathematical level, but the smart ones are definitely doing it at a subconscious level. If you want to understand the perspectives of others, as everyone in my opinion should strive to do, then you would do well to read to the end of this article. To get where we’re going, we will need to discuss the general framework of disaster mathematics.

(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: 2ndamendment; banglist; nra; prepper; preppers; secondamendment; shtf
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To: MHGinTN
"well, in southern California especially, the Mexican invaders there will simply take everything Californians have for survival, and kill the victims then move on."

No great loss.

21 posted on 11/19/2019 7:21:18 PM PST by jonascord (First rule of the Dunning-Kruger Club is that you do not know you are in the Dunning-Kruger club.)
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To: Blueflag
He wrote he is not a prepper, but then makes the quantitative case that we should all be preppers if we are rational, critical thinkers.

A smart prepper will always deny being a member of prepper club.
22 posted on 11/19/2019 7:29:25 PM PST by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Jamestown1630
If you are afraid of this recoil thing buy an AR-15.

When I was 10 years old, my father, as a shooter of local renown, was invited to a demonstration for the local police of the then new Stoner rifle, (Now, the original M-16). I was allowed to go along. The salesman showed that the recoil was so light that he could shoot it with the butt on his chin. They had a cinder block wall set up and to show how powerful it was, and yet had light recoil, the salesman let me run 5 rounds full auto through it.

The dust flew. The Police Chief was not impressed, because blowing a perp to shreds at high noon on Main Street was not good PR. Police, in those days, were all WW2 vets.

23 posted on 11/19/2019 7:31:58 PM PST by jonascord (First rule of the Dunning-Kruger Club is that you do not know you are in the Dunning-Kruger club.)
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To: jonascord

And ‘in those days’ they had revolvers on their hips and a 12 gage loaded in the car.


24 posted on 11/19/2019 7:36:55 PM PST by MHGinTN (A dispensation perspective is a powerful tool for discernment)
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To: ping jockey

“SANE individuals can then band together for mutual survival and defense.”

IMO, that’s key — enclaves, or tribes, if you will. Members known to each other and ready to assemble when shtf.

Just you and yours in your house or cabin? Easy pickings for marauders.


25 posted on 11/19/2019 7:40:21 PM PST by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and ho few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: jonascord

I just want something that will disable - or even just seriously intimidate - any ‘home invader’ without killing him. (I don’t want to kill anybody, if there’s a better way out.)

What is it that they say? “When seconds count, the police are still minutes away.”

But I’ll have to move to a much different state, before I can have an AR-15 :-)


26 posted on 11/19/2019 7:48:41 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: PA Engineer

In the ‘olden days’, EVERYONE was a ‘prepper’. It was just a way of life, and probably still is for many rural people who don’t even think of themselves as ‘preppers’. They’re just doing what they - and their ancestors - have always done.

I remember being really impressed with the medicine cabinet in the bathroom of a friend’s house - the family were farmers in a very rural area. They had everything one could possibly need for almost any injury that didn’t urgently require hospital. It was just the way that they lived - a lot of things can happen to you on a seriously worked farm.


27 posted on 11/19/2019 7:54:21 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: metmom

His advice is just right: buy and AR-15 (learn its manual of arms, of course) and several cases of ammo. Store AR and ammo away for the day you’ll need it!

And, better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it!


28 posted on 11/19/2019 8:00:07 PM PST by Taxman (We will never be a truly FRee people so long as we have the income tax and the IRS!)
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To: ealgeone

Don’t read the comments in the article. Crazy, lazy, short sighted idiots. All we need to to do is force prepares to focus their energies on solving real problems, Or. I can’t participate in the idea of prepping (gun or not) because it’s a selfish, intolerant path. Crazy MF’ers. They will live in their cities and pay 10s of thousand in property taxes but won’t do a basic $2k prep. Build it from there.

Don’t read the article comments. Half way down the idiots come out. Won’t step down to violence (aka guns and preparation). I always wonder what they will think when their wife, daughters, or sons are beaten, tortured, raped, murdered, ate, or even worse kept alive for tomorrow’s fun. I assume that those people’s mind will just turn to mush, cry, and blame everyone but themselves for the pain the people they were supposed to protect suffer unimaginable cruelty. I wonder what the people who counted on them will think.

Prepping isn’t about oneself it’s about taking care of the people we love and are responsible to care for.

I want to start a prepping site where you enter via political affiliations. If more people are prepared, the less likely the black swan will be brutal.. just my opinion.


29 posted on 11/19/2019 8:31:45 PM PST by wgmalabama (Mittens is the new Juan. Go away mittens)
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To: Jamestown1630

Depending on where you are located, there are many rifles just as effective as AR-15s. My go to gun is a mossberg shotgun. It’s my bedroom gun + a few pistols. If I need to reach out and touch someone, I have Remington 700. In the max down range lead a mini 14 would work (not optimal) but it works. All depends on you situation. I am partial to regard 10-22 especially for the women. A woman with a properly equipped 10-22 can put 150 ice pick .22 rounds in the air in about 120 seconds. Nice! Multiply that by 4. Add in the .270 long range, shotguns for close in, and the Main battle rifles. It’s a buzz saw.


30 posted on 11/19/2019 8:41:56 PM PST by wgmalabama (Mittens is the new Juan. Go away mittens)
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To: wgmalabama

My Goodness!

I have a lot to learn.....:-)


31 posted on 11/19/2019 8:57:26 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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Comment #32 Removed by Moderator

To: Jamestown1630

If your a woman, Remington shotgun in 20 gauge 20 inch barrel. Youth models work well for women. #4 shot or so depending on area of fire.

If not Remington then any pump shotgun in 20 gauge (20 inch barrel) will work. Find someone to teach you. Practice makes it work.


33 posted on 11/19/2019 9:23:06 PM PST by wgmalabama (Mittens is the new Juan. Go away mittens)
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To: wgmalabama

Oooh - ‘Pump Action’.

Aren’t they the kind that can be very noisy? I’ve always wanted a loud, noisy gun - it would probably intimidate that ‘home invader’.

https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/dont-rack-a-shotgun-to-ward-off-bad-guys-guns-for-beginners/


34 posted on 11/19/2019 9:46:44 PM PST by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it")
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To: metmom

Thank you. Bookmarked.

The author makes the solid point that an unlikely disaster (riot, revolution, volcanic eruption, zombie outbreak ) becomes much less unlikely over a lifetime. And it can be hard to see it coming in enough time to make it out, at a time when lots of other people are freaking out.

As an example, if you were a Jew in France in 1935, you might have scoffed at the idea that, within 10 years, you would have had to be prepared to take desperate steps to survive.


35 posted on 11/20/2019 12:11:48 AM PST by SauronOfMordor (A Leftist can't enjoy life unless they are controlling, hurting, or destroying others.)
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To: SauronOfMordor

It’s that normalacy bias that kicks in.


36 posted on 11/20/2019 12:20:35 AM PST by metmom ( ...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith...)
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To: Vince Ferrer
Just like we had a lot of trust in our banks, until they completely failed, our government institutions will run along and everything will appear to be fine, until one day they don't.

Elites have a vested interest in concealing the approach of a major disaster, until after THEY are fully safe.

What happens when common people hear something bad is coming, like Hurricane Katrina? They bug out of their jobs, in order to take care of their own homes and families. Including the cops, utility workers, gas station attendants, and all the other people you might depend on being there at their jobs.

37 posted on 11/20/2019 12:21:08 AM PST by SauronOfMordor (A Leftist can't enjoy life unless they are controlling, hurting, or destroying others.)
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To: Jamestown1630

Get a good dog.


38 posted on 11/20/2019 12:23:15 AM PST by SauronOfMordor (A Leftist can't enjoy life unless they are controlling, hurting, or destroying others.)
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To: Jamestown1630

IMNHO:

The first and only thing a home invader should hear from the homeowner is

“BA

because the invaders brain should be an expanding cloud of disassociated brain and skull fragments before the

NG”

can register.

Not saying I have all the skill and equipment necessary to do that for myself. It’s a goal.


39 posted on 11/20/2019 12:31:11 AM PST by ExGeeEye (For dark is the suede that mows like a harvest.)
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To: Jamestown1630
Pump action is less likely to fail than a semi-automatic. I think adding a pistol grip (along with the butt stock) would be helpful in controlling the shotgun for someone who is not as agile as we once were. Handle them to see what works better for you.
No license required. Well under $500


40 posted on 11/20/2019 4:17:35 AM PST by outofsalt (If history teaches us anything, it's that history rarely teaches anything.)
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