Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
Model predictions are heavily dependent on current conditions. Predictions more than a couple of days out are just guesses. This tells you all you need to know about climate models.
You are correct....conditions change on a hour-by-hour basis.
The sad thing is that probably 40,000 people went into catastrophic mode early on, and are already in hotels in Alabama.
No.
It’s better to be safe than sorry. Living here at the OBX NC, I have been thru many false alerts. Hurricane prediction is not an exact science. IMO
An all woman hurricane hunter collected new data.
I don’t think that we’re getting played...not yet. Not until they have to explain why their predictions are so unreliable...which they won’t. They’ll wash their hands of it and call it Dorian.
Nobody wants a repeat of Katrina, where you waited and then you can’t get out.
Maybe the forecasters were smoking something other than corn silk.
“Predictions more than a couple of days out are just guesses.”
True of almost all weather forecasts. And predicting any storm is just educated guessing at best, even your basic summer thunderstorm.
Were we getting Played?
...
Nope.
High pressure built in front of the storm.
The storm moved west and slowed down.
The slower speed will allow time for low pressure to erode the high pressure so that the storm can move north.
I still see a front over southern Georgia and some high pressure north of that which should funnel it straight into Florida. However once a hurricane slows down over the Bahamas, it loses its westward momentum I believe because of Corriolis and can swing backwards.
So, if it slows and edges a bit North, it will miss the coastline, imo. But when Hurricanes slow down going North, the restaighten their paths westward.
What is sure is that it will stand still after the Bahamas and either reaccelerate westward or edge even slower northward and swing backwards. During that time standing all the stationary fronts and high pressures up North can move out and so that is likely.
Forecasting hurricane tracks is extremely difficult, though we are getting better and better at it. If you look at the predicted tracks since it formed, it is still within the “cone” and has been for pretty much it’s entire life so far. The error has been with the media taking the center line as truth and ignoring the cone.They didn’t used to do that. It could still turn westerly and hit Florida and still be within the predicted path.
I was a meteorology major with the hope of working at the Hurricane Center, unfortunately life intervened.
Pray for the people in the Bahamas. Some islands may be gone by Wednesday morning.
Hurricanes never seem to hit the area they’re aimed at.
Were we getting Played?
I hypothesize that because the model is only good for up to 2 days. They play with the algorithm to have the storm attracted to major population areas. If you were watching early on it jumped from Ft Lauderdale to Orlando and then back again. Then it changed to staying off shore as the timeframe got shorter and the model was in it's sweet spot.
This is probably to give the populated areas enough warning so that the people who can bug out have time to get out. People start keeping their cars filled with gas etc.
That's the answer right there.
There are two high pressure systems: one over the Midwest, and one Bermuda high over the Atlantic. High pressure is steering Dorian towards the west and Florida. But, a turn to the north is then probably going to happen. The two highs have weak flow between them, almost like a gap, and as the Atlantic high is weakening faster than the Midwest high, forecasters and models now have Dorian staying off the coast.
These climate change models are based on manipulated data and computer models finding what computer modelers program computer models to find.
Garbage in, Garbage out.
Computer models in general are crap. Small errors add up, making each cycle increasingly inaccurate. But it’s from a powerful computer so people trust it.
There is at least a 50% chance of it hitting Florida now. The models are shifting a little west because it is moving faster then they thought. A thirty mile shift and devastation.
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