Final Outcome -- Make Your Predictions

The Green Papers ^ | 11/3/2018 | SELF

[KC Burke]

The Green Pages:

See a great resource on the web for details on elections, office holders etc.

I have used this resource for years.

HOUSE Right now, it says Republicans have 235 in the House with 7 vacancies and the Democrats hold 193. Of course, all 7 vacant seats will be filled by this election.

SENATE Right now, it says Republicans hold 51, Democrats hold 47 but also have in their caucus 2 Independents.

Let's decide what are predictions are for Wednesday of next week and thereafter.

[GOPJ]

One would think that if Dems were smarter, they would invest in Menendez rather than Beto. Do they think Beto is going to beat Trump in 2020?

Good point - I hadn't looked at it in those terms. Beto doesn't have a chance without massive voter fraud...

[GOPJ]

The MSM will make early calls in a bunch of races that will be wrong when totals are in. The only thing that matters to them is The Resistance, never mind reputations. Don’t pay off bets until totals are in.

Lots of wisdom there jjotto...

[9YearLurker]

I see the GOP losing 10 House seats and gaining 4 in the Senate.

[9YearLurker]

Ha ha—I see now I just predicted below exactly what you earlier offered. Just for a little distance I will up my Senate prediction by one.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

I think Beto can use unspent campaign contributions in 2020, but even for Dems, that seems like a waste of money. Maybe he will blow it all on the illegal caravan, so that there is not any surplus. We might never find out what happened to the Beto money.

[GOPJ]

Beto’s gonna have a hard time running for President after losing this race. Texas was suppose to be his stepping stone - not a lodestone. That said, running in 2020 - even if he loses gives him facetime up for 2024.

[KC Burke]

You are in good company.

[KC Burke]

Since his wife is the sole child of a billionaire, it doesn’t matter.

[KC Burke]

Do you think his father-in-law will spring for the cost?

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Dems wanted to indict Trump for using his own money for alleged campaign expenses. The rules for what is/is not a “campaign expense” does not seem easy to understand.

[LS]

AZ, TX, NV, WI, GA,FL, are R wins; MN, MI, PA, CT, VT; CA are D wins OH a tossup

OH

[KC Burke]

Do you think there is a chance we will be saying goodbye to Robbie in New Jersey?

[LS]

A very, very good chance.

Baris is from NJ, didn’t poll it, but has Hugin leading.

[GOPJ]

Only daughter? Yep... he’ll come up with the cash needed.

[TrumpCoat]

Look through my posting history and you'll know I'm an early voter number cruncher.

The polls this year simply do not make sense. While it's true the House R's leave a lot of open seats and the Senate class is mostly Dems in red state, as a general rule, the House should be stronger than the Senate due to gerrymandering. Ergo, the RCP model contains a polling error - one direction or another. But which direction?

I think a good "starting point" is +1 R in the Senate (Heitkamp) and -10 seats in the House. As we gain more or lose more Senate seats, the House will shift accordingly.

People will not vote to oust the Republican Congressman while also ousting the Democratic Senator. Except for edge cases, sentiments tend to dovetail together at a nationwide level to tell a singular story.

In 2012, a strong Democratic year, the House maintained a 234R-201D edge due to gerrymandering. This was well-reflected in the early votes which showed a strong blue D strength.

This year's turnout is more comparable to the Presidential elections rather than midterms, and I would expect to see early voting as blue as 2012 to flip the House. I'm just not seeing that.

Which adds up to:

My most pessimistic prediction, based on the early votes, are Heitkamp is gone + 18 seats in the House gone.

My most optimistic prediction is a gain of 3 in the Senate and little change in the House.

I think each R Senate "flip" is worth about 5-10 additional Congressmen in the house and vice-versa. Keep in mind my starting line is about +1R Senate and -10R House.

[KC Burke]

Thanks for a detailed version of your anticipated outcome.

There is a thread with some Carville selected bell weathers that is interesting today;
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3702857/posts?page=29#29

[TrumpCoat]

The Democrats’ hopes of taking over the House relying on a Democrat to flip a seat in a district that Trump won by 50 points underscores the difficulty of Democrats flipping the House, to say the least. This point is quite understated.

[KC Burke]

I think that writer meant to say that Trump had 50% and that was his plurality.

[TrumpCoat]

Just double checked - apologies for linking to Daily Kos, but their 2016 Presidential results by Congressional District WV-3 was won with a margin of 72.5% Trump -23.3% Hillary. Which makes this flip effort somewhat giggle-worthy.

[KC Burke]

I think Carville was saying that those districts where they tried very hard to make a difference and the Nelson incumbency would forecast the evening in general. Like you, I don’t see them as big Democrat “solid wins.” Carville is saying if we see them the Democrat plan is coming together for them.