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Final Outcome -- Make Your Predictions
The Green Papers ^
| 11/3/2018
| SELF
Posted on 11/03/2018 3:36:19 PM PDT by KC Burke
The Green Pages:
See a great resource on the web for details on elections, office holders etc.
I have used this resource for years.
HOUSE Right now, it says Republicans have 235 in the House with 7 vacancies and the Democrats hold 193. Of course, all 7 vacant seats will be filled by this election.
SENATE Right now, it says Republicans hold 51, Democrats hold 47 but also have in their caucus 2 Independents.
Let's decide what are predictions are for Wednesday of next week and thereafter.
TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2018midterms
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
One would think that if Dems were smarter, they would invest in Menendez rather than Beto. Do they think Beto is going to beat Trump in 2020? Good point - I hadn't looked at it in those terms. Beto doesn't have a chance without massive voter fraud...
161
posted on
11/04/2018 8:56:18 AM PST
by
GOPJ
(Democrats want dead children & VIOLENCE at the border... for their "Kent State" photo op...)
To: jjotto
The MSM will make early calls in a bunch of races that will be wrong when totals are in. The only thing that matters to them is The Resistance, never mind reputations. Dont pay off bets until totals are in.Lots of wisdom there jjotto...
162
posted on
11/04/2018 9:02:51 AM PST
by
GOPJ
(Democrats want dead children & VIOLENCE at the border... for their "Kent State" photo op...)
To: KC Burke
I see the GOP losing 10 House seats and gaining 4 in the Senate.
To: Truthsearcher
Ha ha—I see now I just predicted below exactly what you earlier offered. Just for a little distance I will up my Senate prediction by one.
To: GOPJ
I think Beto can use unspent campaign contributions in 2020, but even for Dems, that seems like a waste of money. Maybe he will blow it all on the illegal caravan, so that there is not any surplus. We might never find out what happened to the Beto money.
165
posted on
11/04/2018 9:49:11 AM PST
by
ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
(Mozart tells you what it's like to be human. Bach tells you what it's like to be the universe)
To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
Beto’s gonna have a hard time running for President after losing this race. Texas was suppose to be his stepping stone - not a lodestone. That said, running in 2020 - even if he loses gives him facetime up for 2024.
166
posted on
11/04/2018 10:17:21 AM PST
by
GOPJ
(Democrats want dead children & VIOLENCE at the border... for their "Kent State" photo op...)
To: 9YearLurker
167
posted on
11/04/2018 10:23:07 AM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
Since his wife is the sole child of a billionaire, it doesn’t matter.
168
posted on
11/04/2018 10:24:24 AM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
To: GOPJ
Do you think his father-in-law will spring for the cost?
169
posted on
11/04/2018 10:26:02 AM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
To: KC Burke
Dems wanted to indict Trump for using his own money for alleged campaign expenses. The rules for what is/is not a “campaign expense” does not seem easy to understand.
170
posted on
11/04/2018 10:40:33 AM PST
by
ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
(Mozart tells you what it's like to be human. Bach tells you what it's like to be the universe)
To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
AZ, TX, NV, WI, GA,FL, are R wins; MN, MI, PA, CT, VT; CA are D wins OH a tossup
OH
171
posted on
11/04/2018 12:15:28 PM PST
by
LS
("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
To: LS
Do you think there is a chance we will be saying goodbye to Robbie in New Jersey?
172
posted on
11/04/2018 12:17:01 PM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
To: KC Burke
A very, very good chance.
Baris is from NJ, didn’t poll it, but has Hugin leading.
173
posted on
11/04/2018 12:38:56 PM PST
by
LS
("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
To: KC Burke
Only daughter? Yep... he’ll come up with the cash needed.
174
posted on
11/04/2018 12:51:21 PM PST
by
GOPJ
(Democrats want dead children & VIOLENCE at the border... for their "Kent State" photo op...)
To: KC Burke; Ravi; SpeedyInTexas
Look through my posting history and you'll know I'm an early voter number cruncher.
The polls this year simply do not make sense. While it's true the House R's leave a lot of open seats and the Senate class is mostly Dems in red state, as a general rule, the House should be stronger than the Senate due to gerrymandering. Ergo, the RCP model contains a polling error - one direction or another. But which direction?
I think a good "starting point" is +1 R in the Senate (Heitkamp) and -10 seats in the House. As we gain more or lose more Senate seats, the House will shift accordingly.
People will not vote to oust the Republican Congressman while also ousting the Democratic Senator. Except for edge cases, sentiments tend to dovetail together at a nationwide level to tell a singular story.
In 2012, a strong Democratic year, the House maintained a 234R-201D edge due to gerrymandering. This was well-reflected in the early votes which showed a strong blue D strength.
This year's turnout is more comparable to the Presidential elections rather than midterms, and I would expect to see early voting as blue as 2012 to flip the House. I'm just not seeing that.
Which adds up to:
My most pessimistic prediction, based on the early votes, are Heitkamp is gone + 18 seats in the House gone.
My most optimistic prediction is a gain of 3 in the Senate and little change in the House.
I think each R Senate "flip" is worth about 5-10 additional Congressmen in the house and vice-versa. Keep in mind my starting line is about +1R Senate and -10R House.
175
posted on
11/04/2018 1:05:13 PM PST
by
TrumpCoat
(Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
To: TrumpCoat
176
posted on
11/04/2018 1:42:16 PM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
To: KC Burke
The Democrats’ hopes of taking over the House relying on a Democrat to flip a seat in a district that Trump won by 50 points underscores the difficulty of Democrats flipping the House, to say the least. This point is quite understated.
177
posted on
11/04/2018 2:03:39 PM PST
by
TrumpCoat
(Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
To: TrumpCoat
I think that writer meant to say that Trump had 50% and that was his plurality.
178
posted on
11/04/2018 2:07:54 PM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
To: KC Burke
179
posted on
11/04/2018 2:14:42 PM PST
by
TrumpCoat
(Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
To: TrumpCoat
I think Carville was saying that those districts where they tried very hard to make a difference and the Nelson incumbency would forecast the evening in general. Like you, I don’t see them as big Democrat “solid wins.” Carville is saying if we see them the Democrat plan is coming together for them.
180
posted on
11/04/2018 3:03:56 PM PST
by
KC Burke
(If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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