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Look through my posting history and you'll know I'm an early voter number cruncher.

The polls this year simply do not make sense. While it's true the House R's leave a lot of open seats and the Senate class is mostly Dems in red state, as a general rule, the House should be stronger than the Senate due to gerrymandering. Ergo, the RCP model contains a polling error - one direction or another. But which direction?

I think a good "starting point" is +1 R in the Senate (Heitkamp) and -10 seats in the House. As we gain more or lose more Senate seats, the House will shift accordingly.

People will not vote to oust the Republican Congressman while also ousting the Democratic Senator. Except for edge cases, sentiments tend to dovetail together at a nationwide level to tell a singular story.

In 2012, a strong Democratic year, the House maintained a 234R-201D edge due to gerrymandering. This was well-reflected in the early votes which showed a strong blue D strength.

This year's turnout is more comparable to the Presidential elections rather than midterms, and I would expect to see early voting as blue as 2012 to flip the House. I'm just not seeing that.

Which adds up to:

My most pessimistic prediction, based on the early votes, are Heitkamp is gone + 18 seats in the House gone.

My most optimistic prediction is a gain of 3 in the Senate and little change in the House.

I think each R Senate "flip" is worth about 5-10 additional Congressmen in the house and vice-versa. Keep in mind my starting line is about +1R Senate and -10R House.