Posted on 11/02/2018 9:56:02 AM PDT by Signalman
Republicans have huge turnout in early voting.
HA Goodman is a commentator who correctly predicted the 2016 election results. He is convinced that the GOP will gain seats in the Senate and retain control of the House. He states that the Dems will not gain the 23 additional seats needed to get control of the House and explains, in detail, the reasons why.
REPUBLICANS LEAD DEMOCRATS #MIDTERM EARLY VOTING AFTER 24 MILLION VOTES. MY PREDICTION WILL BE RIGHT
Encouragement!!!!
Maybe, hopefully.
I do think people are putting too much stock in the early voting numbers which seem to favor Repubs. Early votes aren’t extra special votes. They only equal any vote cast on election day. The Dems were making a big deal about early vote totals in 2016. Perhaps the Rs are just cannibalizing their election day votes with a good early vote operation.
Beware.
bfl
HA Goodman is PROOF changing minds is possible.
He was a Bernie supporter and left Democrat Underground after Bernie lost the primary...
When all Bernie’s supporters were silenced there.
Still calls himself a progressive so our work is not done yet!
NJ has 5 seats & 4 are in trouble
CA has 14 seats & 8 are in trouble
IL has 7 seats & 4 are in trouble
VA has 7 seats & 4 are in trouble
NY has 9 seats & 5 are in trouble
He said these are all in Democrat solid States
So out of 42 seats, 25 are in trouble in Democrat States
Republicans have huge turnout in early voting.
~~~
I keep hearing this, but don’t they always outstrip the democrats in early voting?
Look, early votes are good. A lead when usually ED itself is either tied or leaning GOP is very good and means we will do well in this election.
HOWEVER, it is NOT enough to ASSURE victory. A lot can still go wrong.
Something most don’t acknowledge on FR is that ALL polls that I have been, even close ones or pro-GOP ones, are close because the independent voters ARE TRENDING DEM THIS YEAR, NOT GOP. That makes it harder to win those close House races while not being a big factor in the Senate. IN addition, female voters are more Dem this year. That’s a big issue.
The good thing is that the indies are not overwhelmingly Dem. They aren’t really ‘breaking’ for Dems, just leaning that way. That will help us. But, the women voter issue is more serious.
Thus, yes, we will likely get 4 more Senate seats.
I think the House will be close, and early voting would put the trend on our side to narrowly hold it.
But, the indies will be a wildcard. If they break heavily to the Dems, we will lose a lot of the close House races. We have to hope that doesn’t happen.
I am just saying that it’s extremely irresponsible to look at early voting numbers like it’s destiny. That didn’t work out well for Hillary in 2016.
This needs to be clarified!
state has X seats & Y are in trouble ( Note: Y < X )
Is this just Rat seats in trouble, GOP seats in trouble or both?
I had the very same question.
He says to check in to his You Tube Tuesday to celebrate.
Dan Perrin has a model that has been 90+% accurate over 20 years, and he predicts R’s gain 4 in the Senate and D’s only win 5 to 11 House seats (they need 22).
At the risk of splitting hairs here, what is the definition of “trouble”?
Are our people trailing in these races?
Are our people in statistical ties in these races?
Are our people ahead - but barely outside the MOE in these races?
Or a combination of all of the above?
“IN addition, female voters are more Dem this year. That’s a big issue.”
If the House falls to the Dims this year, it will be because of “independent” women who usually vote for Republicans.
They got all lathered up over that #metoo” nonsense, and Trumps uncivilized ways.
All other traditional Republican demographics remain solid, and some traditionally Dim demographics are leaking toward Republicans.
But something seems to have the wimmins all stirred up.
We should never have given them the vote.
Not sure where Rollins is getting his info from - but does any of this sound correct to you?
I guess I’m expecting we’ll lose some seats in those states - but is it as bad as Rollins is indicating?
Don’t know what Rollins is smoking
Hopefully.
There are very few districts that are on a razor's edge. Most lean 5 points or more one direction or the other. So, if Pubs are matching the Dems enthusiasm, and it looks like they are at least doing that and perhaps exceeding it, then most of these that are not on a razor's edge will be close but should return "home" to their partisan makeup.
Rollins wring. Rush talking about how he was wrong in 94, too.
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