REPUBLICANS LEAD DEMOCRATS #MIDTERM EARLY VOTING AFTER 24 MILLION VOTES. MY PREDICTION WILL BE RIGHT
Encouragement!!!!
Maybe, hopefully.
I do think people are putting too much stock in the early voting numbers which seem to favor Repubs. Early votes aren’t extra special votes. They only equal any vote cast on election day. The Dems were making a big deal about early vote totals in 2016. Perhaps the Rs are just cannibalizing their election day votes with a good early vote operation.
Beware.
bfl
HA Goodman is PROOF changing minds is possible.
He was a Bernie supporter and left Democrat Underground after Bernie lost the primary...
When all Bernie’s supporters were silenced there.
Still calls himself a progressive so our work is not done yet!
Republicans have huge turnout in early voting.
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I keep hearing this, but don’t they always outstrip the democrats in early voting?
Look, early votes are good. A lead when usually ED itself is either tied or leaning GOP is very good and means we will do well in this election.
HOWEVER, it is NOT enough to ASSURE victory. A lot can still go wrong.
Something most don’t acknowledge on FR is that ALL polls that I have been, even close ones or pro-GOP ones, are close because the independent voters ARE TRENDING DEM THIS YEAR, NOT GOP. That makes it harder to win those close House races while not being a big factor in the Senate. IN addition, female voters are more Dem this year. That’s a big issue.
The good thing is that the indies are not overwhelmingly Dem. They aren’t really ‘breaking’ for Dems, just leaning that way. That will help us. But, the women voter issue is more serious.
Thus, yes, we will likely get 4 more Senate seats.
I think the House will be close, and early voting would put the trend on our side to narrowly hold it.
But, the indies will be a wildcard. If they break heavily to the Dems, we will lose a lot of the close House races. We have to hope that doesn’t happen.
I am just saying that it’s extremely irresponsible to look at early voting numbers like it’s destiny. That didn’t work out well for Hillary in 2016.
He says to check in to his You Tube Tuesday to celebrate.
Dan Perrin has a model that has been 90+% accurate over 20 years, and he predicts R’s gain 4 in the Senate and D’s only win 5 to 11 House seats (they need 22).