Look, early votes are good. A lead when usually ED itself is either tied or leaning GOP is very good and means we will do well in this election.
HOWEVER, it is NOT enough to ASSURE victory. A lot can still go wrong.
Something most don’t acknowledge on FR is that ALL polls that I have been, even close ones or pro-GOP ones, are close because the independent voters ARE TRENDING DEM THIS YEAR, NOT GOP. That makes it harder to win those close House races while not being a big factor in the Senate. IN addition, female voters are more Dem this year. That’s a big issue.
The good thing is that the indies are not overwhelmingly Dem. They aren’t really ‘breaking’ for Dems, just leaning that way. That will help us. But, the women voter issue is more serious.
Thus, yes, we will likely get 4 more Senate seats.
I think the House will be close, and early voting would put the trend on our side to narrowly hold it.
But, the indies will be a wildcard. If they break heavily to the Dems, we will lose a lot of the close House races. We have to hope that doesn’t happen.
I am just saying that it’s extremely irresponsible to look at early voting numbers like it’s destiny. That didn’t work out well for Hillary in 2016.
“IN addition, female voters are more Dem this year. That’s a big issue.”
If the House falls to the Dims this year, it will be because of “independent” women who usually vote for Republicans.
They got all lathered up over that #metoo” nonsense, and Trumps uncivilized ways.
All other traditional Republican demographics remain solid, and some traditionally Dim demographics are leaking toward Republicans.
But something seems to have the wimmins all stirred up.
We should never have given them the vote.