Posted on 10/07/2016 11:34:02 AM PDT by Signalman
"Put not your trust in princes” as Psalm 146 advises… nor put such trust in princesses or polls. For “princess,” awaiting a queenly coronation, read Hillary C and for “polls” include any of those focused on the current presidential race.
In point of fact, as the Brits would say, the proper way to read the current presidential polls may be with a modicum of cryptographic decoding and guided by a few essential considerations.
The first is the obvious fact that a respondent answering the pollster may not rank toward the top of the ingenuousness scale. That is to say, he (she) may be directly lying about, or incorrectly predicting, his (her) ultimate vote… and that includes, as well, the possibility of not voting at all.
The second pertinent fact is that such inauthentic self-reports are not randomly distributed so as to generate mere statistical “noise” of the sort reflected in the reported “error limits” of the particular poll. To the contrary, the majority of those who misinform the interviewer may go in one direction rather than the other, whether the choice is between classical or country music or between Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
From what precedes there follows this crucial assertion: considerably more pro-Clinton respondents in the current polls will, in ultimate fact, vote for Trump than will “Trumpers” vote for Clinton. A much smaller number of others will vote for the Libertarian candidate or won’t vote at all. Does this prediction have a basis in any reality known to pollsters, sociologues, and social psychologists or is it mere wishful conjecture? It does indeed have a very potent basis. To use the jargon of the social psychologist, that basis is now called “Evaluation Apprehension.”
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
“There is literally no support for Hillary. Not even among Dems. They will vote for her but there is no support or enthusiasm.’
I fully agree with you but if you go to MSN, NBC or CNN you will be told the opposite. This is an all out propaganda war as LS said it would be.
Rush kind of belatedly came to that conclusion in the last week. We are against a Pravda-type state run media. The notion that ANY of them are even remotely “journalists” is an utter joke.
I remember when you made this prediction on Facebook a few weeks ago.So far as Rush and others are concerned we can say “Welcome to the party, pal!!!”
“Right now media is trying to demoralize Trump supporters.”
Reading Free Republic, it’s apparent that it’s working on more than a few.
No. Just a realist. Pay attention to what is going on.
Wherever I am online, I have met Trump supporters, Trump haters, Bernie supporters, and folks who supported Republicans besides Trump, but I have yet to meet a genuine Hillary supporter.
“The Republic is over.”
Then there’s no point in you posting here any longer, is there?
Seriously - if you’re that beaten and demoralized, there’s nothing you can say here, that won’t act as a demoralizing influence to others.
“In 2012 the Dems engineered excessive turnout, ensuring an easy, above poll expectation win for zero.”
Zero got fewer votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. If the Republicans hadn’t run a virtual mirror image of Obama, we would have won.
“No. Just a realist.”
More like a surrendering defeatist.
Look up the word ‘fight’ in the dictionary. Its what you’re supposed to do when your country’s very existence is on the line.
If you can’t find it within yourself to do that, get off the field!
Sorry, but I am paying attention. I just can’t spare any for trollish behavior.
You can call it realism all you want. It just comes across as a defeatist attitude.
The media is planning on leaking devastating stuff Trump has said now and all the way up to the election. How is that being a troll by pointing out what is happening? They will destroy him.
Like I said above...
Is that all its going to take to keep the Trump Train from running all the way to November 8th? Stupid crap that he said 10-15 years ago? Did he also commit 1/100th of the CRIMES that Hillary has, things like the Rose Law Firm billing records, cattle futures, controlling 'bimbo' eruptions, giving 20% of the US uranium to Russia, leaving 4 gallant men to die in Benghazi?
Bah, away with your defeatism. Begone!
Yeah, people did that in 2012 too....didn't work out quite so well.
Dismissing polls is foolish. Even if they are wrong it is better to operate as if our candidate is the underdog.
Even if losing, Trump is within striking distance. If he turns in a couple solid debate performances it could change the entire dynamics of the race. Right near the end of a campaign there is sometimes a surge of movement one way or the other - a couple debate wins could push a lot of support to Trump.
Polls are crap. Oversampled, pushed, etc. Useless.
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