Posted on 03/16/2016 10:08:50 PM PDT by GLDNGUN
Survey says...
Every state has 3 RNC delegates, so that’s the extra 3 in Cali. My guess is that they are bound to the state result, like the RNC delegates are in most states. I’d have to look it up.
At the end of the day, the map is possible for Trump. It’s impossible for Kasich. Cruz has a path, but it’s very, very, very narrow. It will likely be taken away after he loses AZ next Tuesday.
“I don’t know where the other +9 are coming from. IL perhaps?”
Try the Marianas Islands......
Check here:
Recounts cost money. Didn’t we hear that Teddy was running out of money? Of course, I’m sure that Heidi sent out at least a dozen emails to every donor about how Ted doesn’t think the 1st amendment is very important to his opponents, and begging and pleading for more money.
Maybe a minor thing, maybe not. There are currently 28-29 “unbound” delegates from candidates who have actually dropped out (vs. “suspended,” like Rubes and Bush). These include Carson’s 8 and a couple of others, plus 9 from the Virgin Islands.
I bet the Trump has already been in contact with these delegates. That is not to say he has a commitment from them, but I would be very surprised if the campaign hasn’t talked with every one.
If Rubes ever formally leaves, 150+ delegates go into the pool.
What he is talking about is that Five Thirty Eight as of yesterday did not have to (at least) 30 MO delegates which have been awarded now. Could be many more as over 20 still haven’t been assigned. When you add those Trump is at least 694.
No matter what discussion continues for analysis, the fact is clear that Kasich has stayed in the race for one reason and that is to act as a foil for the establishment in order to set the stage for a contested convention.
Now it will be interesting to see the narratives and tactics of the establishment in cutting deals with media outlets to ‘condition’ the public to accept a contested convention as normal.
Predictably there will be ‘history’ lessons of candidates that fought to the bitter end and how the ‘elders’ had to ‘settle’ the acrimony.
Predictably there may be narratives (lies) told of how delegates represent more than voters that show at polls but also those who could not make it to the polls such as the elderly and disabled. There will be accompanying interviews of people who ‘could not make it to the polls’ that appeared shocked that candidates like Trump have emerged, and ...’were this known they would surely have made it to the polls’.
Predictably there will be discussions among pundits that conventions are always contested for else why should there be a convention? People will be interviewed who express relief that there is a convention process that allows for the rational choice to emerge.
The veil is pulled back. The specter of free elections is revealed to be fraudulent but just don’t say that in public.
Kasich and Cruz will be encouraged to stay in to the end to deny Donald Trump a chance at being President of the United States. Donald too, has been lied to. He thought he could file ‘papers’ to run for President but will have to face the harsh reality that he is not allowed to attach himself to a party which is controlled by a private corporation known as the RNC. And Donald has been warned that he risks prosecution for inciting people to riot.
Ted Cruz is faced with a choice. He surely can see he has no chance to win the nomination without a convention fight and that his only hope to prevail in a convention fight is to cut a deal with the establishment leaders of the republican party. But first he must ‘apologize’.
Ted Cruz could decide heroically to fold in with Donald Trump but he may be too far down the road to Hell to turn back now. He has likely been captured and can no longer break free. He is owned, his children and wife are held hostage.
Can Donald Trump break off and win in a 3rd party run? Possibly but improbably. The outcome will be the same, the establishment will have their choice of Hillary or Kasich or. Biden or Romney. And the ‘news’ networks will light up with ‘conditioning’ scripts to prepare the public for the inevitable result emerging from a ‘normal’ period of contested debate. When all is said and done, the election cycle will have been a ‘thrilling spectacle’ dampened only by the sour grapes of persons who feel the election was stolen from a radical fringe candidate in Donald Trump whose supporters had the audacity to think that their 35% in one political party could swing America to a Hitler-like despot. Once again, it will be proclaimed that the sanity of the American system prevailed and the world can breathe a sigh of relief.
The silver lining is in the states that remain under God’s will. Should any primary now be counted in small margins, the expectation of fraud can assure that Donald never reaches 1237 delegates. But if enough people wake up and amass in record numbers at polls, there is a chance that Donald will exceed 1237 delegates. Even then, the perception of free elections will be in the hands of persons who seat the delegates and who make convention rules. It will be tough for them to hide their deceit and they may be forced to accept Trump as their predecessors accepted Reagan in 1980 but not without attaching their conditions in the person of George Herbert Walker Bush.
thegreenpapers.com
‘hard’ delegates
Trump 693
Cruz 422
Kasich 144
Rubio 172
Carson 8
uncommitted 26
[available 1000]
==
CNN
‘pledged’
Trump 662
Cruz 408
Kasich 143
Rubio 171
Carson 8
==
Google.com
Trump 673
Cruz 411
Kasich 143
[1061 available]
==
It is difficult to discern with reporting websites having such a disparity in their numbers.
Cruz should make the phone call. He’d be showing leadership skills, thinking of the Party and the Country first.
Excellent analysis.
Now, how does one factor in the “time degradation” factor?
The longer the voter is exposed to The Texas Carpetbagger’s personality behavioral characteristics, speech patterns, and observable inclination for aligning himself with GOP Establishment, the more the voter tends to change his voting preferences toward Anti-Establishment and financially- independent candidate Donald J. Trump.
:-)
** Cruz should make the phone call. He’d be showing leadership skills, thinking of the Party and the Country first. **
Oh, now you’re throwing in another variable and complicating things.
Each day The Texas Carpetbagger displays what most astute voters perceive to be excessive self-indulgent behavior will result in an exponential increase in the tendency of said voters to put Country first and vote Trump. ;-)
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