GOP Delegate Projection

[GLDNGUN]

Survey says...

[weston]

Are Missouri delegates figured into the 694?

[existtoexcel]

The MO recount, is that not an issue?

[Utmost Certainty]

They have to be.

Other sites place Trump @ 673 with only part of MO’s delegates awarded. According to provisional results released today, Trump gains another +12, thus putting him @ 685.

I don’t know where the other +9 are coming from. IL perhaps?

[Jeff Chandler]

It’s embarrassing listening to the Republican shills talk about how Trump has failed to poll 50%. What they are not telling us is if you combine Trump’s and Cruz’s numbers, that is the percentage of voters who reject the Republican establishment.

[fireman15]

Depends upon which site you check. But there are not 1040 delegates left. If you look at each state that has already voted and add up the delegates available, you get 1489 already allocated, leaving 983 delegate, of which 128 will be unpledged delegates. That only leaves 855 pledged delegates available. So even using your number of 694 delegates, that means Trump needs 543 delegates. 543/855= 63.5%, not 52%.

I saw Cruz on Megyn Kelly tonight using similar Texamatics. I am sorry, but it just comes across as sort of sad. Whether you like it or not Trump is most likely going to get to 1237 delegates before the convention.

But lets use your math for Ted shall we? Ted has 411 delegates according to RealClearPolitics... he needs 826 more delegates to get to 1237. You say there are only 855 pledged delegates available 826/855=96.6%. How likely is it that Ted is going to get 96.6% of the remaining delegates? Using your math why hasn't Ted already conceded?

[Utmost Certainty]

I don’t think there’s a realistic electoral situation where Trump doesn’t cinch 1237 at this point. And most upcoming states are not significantly favorable for Cruz.

Really no reason to continue dragging this thing out, but I suspect most everyone knows that and is scrambling to negotiate their futures right now before they decide to formally pack it in.

[kvanbrunt2]

“To reach 1237, Trump only needs 52% of the remaining 1040 delegates.”

52% sounds like the number that I’ve heard GOPe insiders touting. They don’t think that Trump can get it, but then they are hoping that he won’t.>>> well he’s not he doing around %40

[weston]

He got 9 from the Marianas Islands. ?

[Rational Thought]

I haven’t heard of Cruz asking for a recount. Have you heard differently?

[wardaddy]

Thank you.... I mean Eureka!

I just did all the numbers too and it’s nice to meet someone who can do math too

So many Freepers are just damn stupid or bald faced liars

If Trump just continues at his pace he wins handily the 1237

If he does that and you throw in his 2/3 winning ratio with the 14 winner take all states and it’s a romp

Meanwhile Cruz needs 80% of all remaining delegates and all the big states plus most of the small ones too

Not going to happen

All this convention talk is to test waters just in case they got very lucky and to cast doubt

Look at the faces of Megyn and Rich and Beck and Stirewalt and Dana and Gutfeld

Despite what they say they know they lost

That’s why Megyn and Bret and Britt tried desperately for a final Trump Piñata debate next week.....an act of desperation....anything....

Ed Rollins

New Gingrich

Giuliani

Monica Crowley

Laura Ingraham

I heard or saw many today saying same thing

Levin is off the rails

Rush is trying to be Everyman

It’s just ridiculous

Cruz would have to win 497 of remaining delegates just to keep Trump from 1237 by one delegate

Trump would have 1236

Cruz would have 900

Cruz would have to double his win ratio of win New York and California and Jersey and Penn and Washington state

The odds are Agincourt odds at least

[profit_guy]

Where is USVI in that NYT chart? And is their any polling available there?

March 19, 2016 (9 bound delegates)

U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all

[Utmost Certainty]

No, those are accounted for in the total.

Though there’s still 7 from NC and 4 from IL that have yet to be awarded, so that might be it.

[existtoexcel]

Only that being so close a recount was automatic. It was in a post somewhere on FR, I should’ve tagged it. Might have been done and no change. Who would possibly make up something like that?

[Utmost Certainty]

Heh, you’re welcome.

Pretty sure the naysayers can do the math, it ain’t hard. They just either choose not to, or opt to be baldfaced liars. Path of least resistance when one’s got an agenda to grind, I guess.

But yeah, writing’s on the wall. As you say, I think everyone in the know realizes this. And there’s an odd calm going on at the moment where a bunch of people are reckoning with this and trying re-maneuver their futures before they formally pack it in.

[byrony]

California IS NOT WINNER TAKE ALL. It is by Congressional district similar to Missouri.

There are 53 Congressional districts times three delegates per district for a total of 159 delegates plus the winner of California gets an extra 10. I don’t know where the 172 number comes from and I’m guessing some superdelegates.

If it comes down to California, Cruz will get some delegates, primarily the Central Valley I’m guessing.

A lot of people are saying it’ll be winner take all and it’s not.

Here’s the CA GOP website that describes how delegates are chosen: https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/

[existtoexcel]

MO Sec of state said oversees and absentee still have to be counted and it's not official until the count is certified, could take up to 4 weeks. The Cruz campaign has 7 days to request a recount. Dang, google is my friend.

[Rational Thought]

Almost certain in Mo that the 2nd place candidate has to request the recount.

Latest story I could find;

http://www.heraldstandard.com/elections_ap/clinton-trump-lead-in-missouri-by-slim-margins/article_2824a0bc-72fe-5d24-8734-f5b38fa75347.html

[existtoexcel]

Thanks for the link. I hope the remaining ballots and the certified count support the initial outcome.

[cgbg]

You are correct about the California process.

However, that actually helps Trump because he probably will get “over the top” while needing to win only some of the California districts.

That math makes it more likely that the Cruz folks will figure out the numbers and cut a deal with Trump well before California.

If it was a true winner take all state then Cruz would be motivated to spend tons of money in advertising and take a shot at winning all state delegates.

[MacMattico]

Rubio has told his supporters to vote Cruz, fwiw. NY will be interesting. We tend to vote GOP-e in primaries, but Trump is a NYer. Still, I am most familiar with NY Republican politics so I will have some predictions after our vote. Predictions even for the General election. Of course Hillary claims NY as home but I think she's spent maybe two weeks in her home here in 20 years. But democrats here don't care, and many of them are really dumb. FACT