Posted on 01/26/2016 8:19:43 PM PST by ground_fog
Donald Trump says he won’t appear at the upcoming debate on FOX if Megyn Kelly is a moderator, and as of this writing, it appears she will be. Some of you asked me how this move by Trump could possibly be a smart thing.
On the 2D playing field, Trump appears petulant and whiney. Maybe narcissistic, fascist, and a little bit of Hitler too. And as FOX cleverly pointed out, negotiating with foreign leaders won’t be easier than Megyn Kelly’s questions.
So Trump loses badly in the second dimension.
Let’s shift to the third dimension and see if the view is different. For starters, tell me what you learned about all the other candidates today.
Nothing?
Trump sucked the oxygen out of the room. Again. And the issue – as always – is something we can jabber about forever. It is jabber-ready by design, so the media and the public will have no time and no brain cycles left to consider his competition.
Admit it – you already think the competition on the Republican side has narrowed to Trump versus Trump. If he stumbles, he loses. If he doesn’t, he wins. But the other candidates and all of their money will not change anything. The presidency is 100% in Trump’s hands to win or lose.
And he hasn’t stumbled (in the 3rd dimension of persuasion) in six months of continuous media attention.
Now keep in mind that one of Trump’s signature moves involves creating situations in which he has two or more paths to win, and no paths to lose. He wins AT THE START by picking his battles.
For example, when Trump warned Iran to return the American prisoners, he won no matter what happened. If Iran released the prisoners, Trump would say he influenced it. They did, and he did. If Iran had delayed, Trump would have used it as yet another reason you need a tough guy to deal with them. He had two paths to winning and no path to losing.
And it is intentional. I have a similar (but far worse) skill set, and I would have made that play as well.
So let’s game out the FOX scenario and see how many ways he can win and how many ways he can lose.
If FOX doesn’t budge, and Trump skips the debate, he will tweet the entire mess like it is Mystery Science Theater 3000.
The next day, the news will interject his tweets with their commentary about each participant. Obviously Trump’s tweets would include his usual eyebrow-raising insults and claims, and draw all attention his way. And unlike the people in the debate, he can “twitter-interrupt†them at any point with his counter-punches and clever insults. The media will insert his tweets in just the right place to make their stories compelling.
Interestingly, FOX might have good ratings in that scenario because people would be watching the combined debate plus The Trump Twitter Show to get it all synced up in real time. And people would want to see how FOX handles the lack of Trump. Empty podium?
At about halftime of the debate you might see Trump say it is too boring to watch and sign off for the night. That gives you a data point to see if viewership drops off around then. And it probably would, no matter what he tweets, simply because the novelty of him NOT being there will wear off. Then all you have is a real debate about the real issues. No one wants that. We have better things to do.
Now suppose Trump changes his mind and decides to join the debate even while Megyn Kelly remains. One of two things can happen. Either she asks questions that sound biased, and Trump rips her and FOX News apart on live television – and his poll number go up, or she asks only softball questions and Trump appears to have won that way.
You might be thinking that the real world is messier than that, and Trump is inviting a big risk. For example, Megyn Kelly might get in a zinger. But Trump dodges those with ease. Maybe the public will start siding with a biased TV host, but that seems unlikely. The media is unpopular in general.
Or perhaps a FOX competitor will offer Trump a show of his own for two hours, at the same time, just to be dicks to FOX. Anything can happen, but all paths seem to favor Trump.
Now let’s say you are Donald Trump, the scariest Republican that any Democrat has seen in ages. What is the one best thing he can do to separate himself from the Republican machine and show that he can be a deal-maker for everyone? Answer: Punch FOX News in the mouth. Right in front of you.
Democrats are watching. Trump is framing himself as an enemy of their enemy. (Democrats hate FOX News.)
Trump’s setup here is pure genius. He doesn’t know how it will end, but he is making sure he goes where the odds are deeply in his favor.
That’s a system, not a goal. Once you see the world that way, it makes a lot more sense. Coincidentally, I wrote a book on systems being better than goals.
—
People keep asking me to demonstrate my lack of bias by pointing out some of Trump’s mistakes. The problem is that Trump has a skill set that absorbs mistakes and turns them into whatever he wants them to be. That’s his system.
Because he is.
and arrogant, full of hubris, cowardly, insensitive, rude, and self-absorbed.
Not good qualities for a president.
Trump: “the scariest Republican that any Democrat has seen in ages.” Good point, Mr. Adams. The photo of Megyn and Moore is upsetting. Moore destroys everything in his path and I am surprised Megyn place herself in his path.
Stop covering this whiner’s ego trips.
Another awesome analysis from Scott Adams. Truly some of the best original thinking since, well, Trump.
Yes.
bump
I see nothing wrong with anything Kelly asked him.
This was a great read !
Trump is a coward.
So, Trump tells Megyn Kelly to shove it and goes to raise money for, and probably donate a bunch of money to Wounded Warriors instead.
In the mean time Fox News counters by invites a Muslim advocate to help asks questions of the other GOP candidates.
Just who will most Americans side with in that dust up do you suppose?
I got news for Fox and Googel...it will not be them.
Nope. The RNC surrender monkies never learned that walking away from the table is a legitimate negotiating tactic. This won’t hurt with the LOIN-voters.
It’s the opposite of Obamba’s, “You can have anything you want, but that’s my final offer.”
Wrong. Read the article.
Ask a Cruzty. But I suppose they're Canadian.
Moore eats everything in his way.
Actually Trump did the take away. Yesterday Fox had him and today Trump took himself away. Now Fox has nothing.
What the MSM doesn’t realize America hates them. Trump’s action is what America wants and will only embrace him know. The act of the deal. Guess Ailes didn’t read it.
Trump skips the debate, he will tweet the entire mess like it is Mystery Science Theater 3000.
LOL!
I support Cruz...first and foremost.
But I will vote for Trump in a heartbeat should he be the nominee...and it is looking more and more like he will.
THis idea of people here on FR and elsewhere making war on each other, and infuriating one another is crasy.
Sanders and Hillary and Obama and the people pushing for them are the enemy. Either ruz or Trump would be and will be the opposite for the nation.
So, people need to be a little more circumspect and realize that the squabbles now are just politics and wrangling for who ends up in the pole position...and not allow themselves to disenfranchise, or so badly insult their own allies that we lose votes in NOvember.
Anyhow...I believe Trump is handing Fox, and particularly Megyn Kelly her backside on a platter...and I am fine with that.
Yep... Trump does know the Art of War like he wrote the book
America hates Fox. Lol. Just liberals and Trump fanboys.
Sure seems that way, I’d say he’s read it several times.
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