Posted on 10/03/2014 6:55:30 AM PDT by Enlightened1
A projection for the Ebola outbreak way back when it first started in Africa...
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
and
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
As opposed to what we've just witnessed in Dallas?
I'm not too certain that's wrong.
Also, travel in Africa is far lower than in the United States. That's why prior outbreaks were pretty much self-contained. They couldn't get anywhere else before the virus killed them. In the U.S., someone could get in a car and potentially infect 1,000s along any major freeway corridor within a week from one coast to the other, or within a day or two from Canada to Mexico.
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Actual as of November 16: United States - 4 cases, 1 death (two infections originated in the United States, one in Liberia and one in Guinea) http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/11/health/ebola-fast-facts/
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero:
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Actual December 2014: United States - 4 cases, 1 death
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Actual December 2014 - Infected: 12,894 Dead: 7905
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Quote;
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1
Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Correction using confirmed infections;
Actual world total Feb 5 2105
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 13888 Dead 9019
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
Actual world total April 28, 2015
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 14931 Dead 10905
Actual US
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1
Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
Correction;
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
Actual world total April 28, 2015
April, 2015 - Infected: 14931 Dead 10905
Actual US
April, 2015 - Infected: 4 Dead 1
Source; http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html
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