Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.
Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.
Thank You all for you participation.
At this point, it isn’t just me, it is all of us.
“What if ebola was mutated in lab condition with influenza to make a bioweapon?”
Let’s say it was. You’d want a vaccine AND antidote BEFORE you field tested it, because you have to field test all three at once. You have to know you can start the infection AND stop it at the same time.
When you have both, you field test with another species, like rats or monkeys first, and see if your vaccine works.
They you test on an ISOLATED human population. An offshore oil rig is IDEAL. You purposefully infect one or two people and then you see how it spreads. You make sure doc has the antidote. You wait until 20 percent, maybe a quarter are infected.
Then you give ‘Cipro’ (the antidote disguised as another drug that’s an antiviral - Cipro), to the infected and see how they recover. You vaccinate the rest with a ‘flu shot’, then you record the results.
Based on the results, you evaluate what you’ve got, and then you have to make some decisions about what its going to cost to protect your population (a lot - it would take a lot of money), THEN YOU DEPLOY IT.
Testing it anyway NEAR a West African capital city is the world’s stupidest idea. Testing it in a muslim country is also stupid - they go to Mecca from time to time.
It’s unlikely.
I think we share 97 percent of our genetic makeup with chimpanzees.
I guess this is evidenced by the number of registered Democrats, but . . .
Seriously, even a 1 percent difference can matter critically. Ebola Reston was extremely similar to Zaire, for example. It didn’t kill people, just chimps.
The CDC is currently the main source for reporting cases/deaths. I don’t trust it.
I spreadsheeted what they reported. Big holes, massive spikes, and entire countries missing (Benin and Saudi Arabia).
I have a question - would you want it to get out there are cases in your country? Even one?
I’m counting on the books, to one extent or another, are cooked.
Avg deaths from April 2 to May 14, per day = 0.61
Avg deaths from May 24 to now, per day = 20
I think there are more cases and more countries with it than are being represented in CDC data. I think talk of a vaccine is evidence of it to an extent.
With a 90% mortality rate, clinical attack rate of 90% or better, I’d wager the operating R0 (basic reproduction rate) of this is between 2 and 3. Too many HCW’s coming down with it for this to be a sister of Congo.
There was news recently that indicated this wasn’t a clade of Zaire (Zaire being ‘daddy’). This was an entirely new strain. That makes sense.
I also think, based on the contact reporting, that it is transmittable during presymptomatic periods.
If this ends up in SA, and a pilgrim to Mecca gets it - katy bar the door.
bookmark
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/West-Africa-feels-knock-on-effects-of-Ebola-battle-20140811
“In Sierra Leone, 10 motorcycle taxi drivers have been infected after unknowingly carrying Ebola patients, according to the president of the National Bike Riders Association, David Sesay.
The two-wheeled taxis, which put rider and passenger in close contact, are an indispensable form of transport in remote areas of west Africa.”
Another article about Nigeria’s 10 cases.
http://www.bellanaija.com/2014/08/11/ebola-gej-calls-late-liberian-patrick-sawyers-actions-crazy/
“Some people like burial ceremonies. This is not the time for burial ceremony, somebody is dead, he is dead, leave him there. This is not the best time for those ceremonies.”
In reference to the typical burial ceremonies there where everyone shakes hand with or otherwise touches the dead person as a goodbye.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08111401/Ebola_Guinea_SL_Matches.html?
Nigeria Index Matches Ebola Sub-Clade In Guinea & Sierra Leone
If you can get the sweat of the victim on you, chances are you are one too...
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/overview-august-2014/en/
From WHO's website today:
Barriers to rapid containment of the Ebola outbreak
The Ebola virus is highly contagious, but is not airborne. Transmission requires close contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, as can occur during health-care procedures, home care, or traditional burial practices, which involve the close contact of family members and friends with bodies. In Guinea, around 60% of cases have been linked to these burial practices, with women, who are the principal care-givers, disproportionately affected. (what about in Sierra Leone and in Liberia?)
The incubation period ranges from 2 to 21 days, but patients become contagious only after the onset of symptoms. As symptoms worsen, the ability to transmit the virus increases. As a result, patients are usually most likely to infect others at a severe stage of the disease, when they are visibly, and physically, too ill to travel.
Italics are mine.
That was kind of my take home message there too.
Sweat won’t infect you. Unless it infects you.
Neat link! I thought there was a patient in Benin, though (or suspected). Also, one was taken to Spain, iirc. Lots of potential for this to get out with a vengeance.
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